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The Real Truth About Global Warming

Posted July 25, 2012 8:00 AM by larhere

Skeptics abound despite a near consensus on the reality of global warming. But if the scientists aren't convincing enough just follow the money!

US importers (the money) have a pretty good idea of whether warming is occurring. U.S. imports of window AC units hit a 3-year high in March 2012 at $255 million, or 1.8 million units.

Air conditioners aren't the only imports rising with the summer heat. Even the "poor man's" air-conditioner, the indoor fan, hit a 3-year high in 2012, with $163 million imported in April.

Read more at Panjiva

Editor's Note: CR4 would like to thank Larry Butz, President and CEO of GEA Consulting, for contributing this blog entry.

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#1

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:23 AM

Really? I would think that would be more a measure of prosperity....

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#2

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:27 AM

Air conditioners and global warming. Now, there's a positive feedback loop if ever there were one.

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#24
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 10:33 PM

Absolutely. A self-proclaiming prophesy!

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#3

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:44 AM

This is just a 'old school' segment of analysing markets for investments. .

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#4

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:19 AM

With a population increase of about 2.5 million a year. Were those statistic adjusted to take that into consideration.

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#5

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:48 AM

How many of those new air conditioner units were bought just to replace older less efficient units or other new units that lasted 1 or 2 summers before they crapped out due to poor design and junk materials?

About 5 years ago I bought a high efficiency 8000 BTU window unit to replace my 20+ year old low efficiency 8000 BTU unit I have been using forever. I spent $175 saved about $5 a year on electricity for two summers and was marginally comfortable, I would have rated it as a 5000 BTU unit myself, then it crapped out (all the plastic parts inside and out including the fans sun rotted to pieces) and I have had the old one back in service ever since.

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#120
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/16/2012 12:33 AM

With all the crack heads stealing the outside units and recycling them for drug money here in SWFla, the HVAC guys were installing replacement units on new homes that hadn't even been lived in yet.

New EPA laws say that now the outside unit has to be matched to the inside unit and neither can be of a different effeciency rating than the one it is mated to.

Also, they upped the minimum efficiency ratings so older units have to be replaced as a set if one of them is under 12 SEER.

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#121
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/16/2012 8:07 AM

Soo, down on the floor of Wall Street, the call is to BUY

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:55 AM

Now let's get a bit serious on this one. We have a data stream of systematic temperature measurements for the last what? One hundred years? Is there somebody (that's bad) enough that wants to convince me that by hearing a couple of song notes on a noisy radio station, by using simulation modeling mostly from our experience of DJ's music preferences (from those notes again and from our arbitary, possibly irrelevant, forced assosiations), you can predict what notes will be played on that station ten years from now? It must be a few thousand times less info than needed to make ANY serious characterization on an unknown "signal", even if you filter-out 100% correctly the very short period (what a coincidence, LOL), known up to now, temperature cycles. (I wonder aren't there any longer period cycles present or it's just Nyquist blinding? And we are certain that this is not a cycle, but a line, right?). Well, just haven't 100% figured out what's really behind all that BS, and who is expecting to benefit from it, because I'm NOT convinced it's innocent stupidity, well, at least from some, and please anyone wanting to talk about it, leave the "generally recognized as truth" argument, out. (LOL) S.M.

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#25
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 10:45 PM

Sounds like you've had all the real honest discussions on AGW you intend to have. Enjoy your mirror.

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#36
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:54 AM

I chuckled quite a bit at your response. Pretty typical of proponents of anthropogenic global warming. Why, oh why do AGW proponents just want everyone to believe so badly without providing proof? People in general want to do the right thing by the planet. Most of us are opposed to pollution. I'm going to ask a rhetorical question. Why do you suppose AGW continues to meet such stiff opposition? PLEASE, don't give me that "oil companies (energy companies, whatever) are behind it. I have yet to encounter a news article in the mainstream media that take a contrary position to AGW. Indeed daily we are bombarded with global warming scare stories full of maybes and could-be's. The reason there is so much opposition is because it's a fraud and people know it. It's utterly shameful as it distracts from REAL pollution problems that should be addressed for public health and safety.

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#38
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:32 AM

I'm old enough to remember the 60's & 70's anti pollution rants from the "Greenies". The establishment (gov's, businesses, older people) were convinced it was all a hoax, after all how could we possibly be dumping enough rubbish into the air/sea/lakes/rivers etc to make any difference.

Now of course, everyone is Green and what seemed radical is just common sense.

The reason there's so much opposition is that almost no one has any idea of the actual AGW mechanism. Certainly the media never report anything other than the most extreme claims from either side.

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#39
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:37 AM

uh, yeah, I'm old enough to remember the 60s and 70s and I take issue. Just plain people set about cleaning up, removing garbage that had been dumped in the bodies of water, planting trees, picking up litter, etc. It wasn't considered radical. I still remember the TV commercial with the Native American in a chief's feathered headdress with a few tears running down his face as he contemplated the garbage in a stream, and the plant a tree commercials with John Denver singing, "Plant a tree for all the world to share." The Green movement WAS a good thing until it got co-opted by commies.

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#119
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/06/2012 5:25 PM

"Now of course, everyone is Green and what seemed radical is just common sense."

There is a statement that says something to the effect that "if you tell a lie long enough, people start to believe it". That is the case with "Global Warming". There is no substantial evidence that mankind causes warming. We aren't that significant in the "big picture" to have much of an impact.

Not "everyone is green" where they think about everything, or at least most things, in light of it's relationship or impact on the environment.

It is good to be cognizant of how we are stewards of this plantet Earth we inhabit and we also need to be responsible as citizens of this country's resources and ecology.

Higher temps over several years or even a decade are inconsequential in light of what really shows long-term changes. Trends become visible over 30 - 50 years or more, not over just a few years. The several years time frame is just a small piece of the puzzle.

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#59
In reply to #36

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:04 AM

People in general want to do the right thing by the planet.

Actually, I've found people largely want to do the right thing by their own wallets.

And don't forget: Corporations are people, too!

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#61
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:23 AM

include government representives, and you'll have everyone covered

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#62
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:23 AM

The temperature data, seen as a digitised signal is an approach I used to make it easier for engineers (that have a fair grasp of sampling and its limitations) to visualise what I said. Please read it again (and again) and if you don't understand something, or something is not clear, just ask. S.M.

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#37
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:18 AM

Good analogy, but it's based on the wrong assumption. There is in fact a data stream going back millions of years and a quick search of the inter web will find it.

There's a whole lot of clever people who've been researching this topic for decades and in the manner of academics fighting and knocking each other down, what's emerged is a broad consensus that some thing's going on.

If you do have some good ideas re longer temp cycles, Nyquist sampling etc all you need to do is get together with someone in the field, who has enough some credibility, and publish some papers.

Of course, if you've already decided you (with no experience in the whole climate modeling field) know better than the actual experts, it's best to put it all down to a conspiracy, perhaps driven by the evil Al Gore.

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#40
In reply to #37

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:40 AM

climate models are worthless. Not just my opinion. Real climate scientists say so. And the reason is obvious to real scientists. It is an extremely complex system and models don't account for the variables. That is why none of them ever work out.

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#57
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:31 AM

It seems that one qualification for a "real scientist" is that they agree with you.

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#58
In reply to #57

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:02 AM

And the ironic thing is, this can be applied to both groups. Each trying pull a discreet answer from their opposition.

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#67
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:26 PM

A real scientist loves science for science's sake. The phonies (Hansen, Mann, Jones) love money and will stab science in the heart for money. I have no respect for them. There are, I was dismayed, but not surprised, to find out, a disheartening number of scientists and scientific organizations and publications who have stabbed science and their fellow scientists in the back FOR MONEY. In fact, 49 NASA scientists and astronauts, HIGHLY respected men, jointly wrote a letter to NASA director in protest of Hansen. Hansen violated NASA policy with his continuous public speaking in which he claimed the science of AGW was a done deal, which is not NASA's official position. They said he gave science, scientists, and NASA a "bad reputation. Hansen's supervisor, Dr. Theon, chastised him publicly for falsifying data, manipulating data, refusing to tell where his data came from and refusing to disclose the particulars of his models so that independent scientists could verify them.

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#79
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 4:45 PM

I will agree that climate modelling is complex and not all variables are yet accounted. One problem variable that is highly overlooked is the release of hydrates from ocean disturbances. We saw what a small disturbances caused by man can do in the Gulf of Mexico. Imagine what nature is doing. Yet no one is attempting to monitor these disturbances for methane releases. The Storrega slide is 8000 years old and it has only been in the last three years that anyone has been able to find chimneys of releases of CO2 not methane. The reasons are plenty but some has do do with the ready conversion of CH4 to CO2. The Storrega slide was very large between Norway and Greenland. Imagine the releases from such earthquakes as the recent one in Japan or when the Tsunami hit the Indian Ocean. Yet these releases are not even included in the models. How could they when they are not monitored?

The complexity of the measuring and observations required are the biggest reason it is hard to believe the science when they try to make dire predictions. Man may be a small issue but even if we went back to cave dwellers, I fear the earth will warm or cool regardless (despite anything man can do either way). If the proponents want to get the attention of everyone, they need to stop yelling at us that the sky is falling. I would still not throw out the baby with the bath water. The models just need much better understanding and interpretation.

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#7

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 12:20 PM

I am glad we have all enjoyed the "tongue in cheek" humor in this post. It does show this is still a hot issue and will continue to grow in importance as we seek "conclusive" proof the global warming is, or isn't, real. Personally, I do not believe there is proof that mankind is contributing significantly to global warming. However I believe the probability is high that we are and we should be doing something about it.

Thanks for all your comments. I respect each and every opinion expressed here and encourage you to continue to provide this important feedback.

Larry Butz

Read recent issues of the Environmental Update newsletter I publish periodically

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#10
In reply to #7

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 3:20 PM

Sigh

The tongue in cheek humor is appreciated but denial is not a long river in Africa. It is not a theoretical extrapolation that humanity burning of fossil fuel is responsible for the rise in CO2 levels on this planet. It is a measurement that has been repeated many times. This is known as the Seuss effect, for the Austrian chemist who first measured this decrease in C14 until we nuked the air with atmospheric nuclear tests.

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#11
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 4:22 PM

Not to stir up a whole hornet's nest, but your point arguably supports that man has added additional carbon to the atmosphere.

However, correlation is not causation as far as the end effect of that extra carbon, just to be clear.

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#12
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 4:54 PM

You're absolutely correct. This one pair of scientific reports only shows that humanity is responsible for the recent excess of carbon dioxide to exist in the atmosphere. However, there are many here who won't even acknowledge that we have or are even capable of globally changing this facet of our planet.

Just look at your reply. You know fully well that statistics can only reveal correlation. Statistics can never prove causation, yet proof of causation is obviously the only thing that can persuade you.

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#13
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:11 PM

I guess my problem is that I do not find enough statistical evidence to sway me at this point of the debate.

So, I remain a skeptic. At some point the statistical evidence will become large enough that I and others will say, "Yes, this or that is the most likely probability." I just have not arrived at that point.

Part of it is that the climate change debate has become a lot like some telemarketer or solicitor repeatedly showing up at your door with a sales pitch. It's not really science anymore, just another political debate and you just can't wait to close that front door and throw all those pamphlets into the trash.

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#14
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:41 PM

If the Larsen ice shelf in Antarctica disappeared would that statistic imply to you that the Earth is warming?

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#15
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:44 PM

For the sake of the argument, let's say, yes.

Does that imply why the warming is take place? Absolutely not.

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#16
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:55 PM

See, there you go again. You immediately jump to the conclusion you prefer at every datum that I offer. You are not being scientific or open minded. Everyone has their irrational fears. You cannot rationalize an irrational fear.

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#18
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:12 PM

Make it simple. What is your claim here?

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#23
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 10:25 PM

My my my. I'm sorry that my universe precluded me from responding in a timely fashion to this thread. This is because my point with you, AH, parallels exactly Larry's point in one of his earlier replies.

My claim here is that politics is clouding our discussion to the point that sound, reasoned pro versus con debate cannot be made because you presume a conclusion before the presentation, let alone the examination of any evidence. In a word you are biased beyond reason.

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#45
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 6:59 AM

Okay. My point was that the evidence brought forward here in our debate has been very, very weak.

The reason it is weak is that the arguments presented do not show a strong link between cause and effect. As an engineer you know that establishing a link demands a level proof that goes well beyond simple observation of correlation. There has to be statistic relevance, which is a cornerstone in all fields of science.

As far as politics go, and this is off track as far as I am concerned, I feel that simple fact-based debate on climate change is no longer possible because politics have willfully injected bias into the science for the purpose of falsely swaying the conclusion. This is not isolated to a single party nor nation, but is systemic in the debate to the point of mortally poisoning the subject.

A truly independent and unbiased study is beyond the reach of any single entity because of the complexity of the subject and the amount of resources required to do fully analytical science.

The whole process has devolved to an emotional argument peppered with cherry picked facts and misinformation and to answer one of the original poster's questions, I don't know how to change that.

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#64
In reply to #45

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:48 AM

I disagree and strongly agree with many aspects that you've said here.

I disagree that the facts and research I've presented are very weak evidence to the points I was trying to make. They are very strong evidence to the points I was making that there is tangible evidence that the Earth is warming and that our use of fossil fuel is globally changing the balance of atmospheric CO2. (I did not finish the latter argument and will later after work.)

I strongly agree that the politics has made it virtually impossible to make global warming a reasoned discussion. Just look at the pile on that has filled this initially "tongue in cheek" thread. As for how to change this, I can only change myself. I will try to provide cited scientific data and analysis for the facets I believe are proven. Please recognize that I am only proving the facet and not any other grand idea. I will stride to indicate what I believe to be a valid or invalid conjecture from proven facets as my opinion. There will be many gaps between the facets I can prove. Others have proven many other facets, too. Likely some proven facets will disagree with my conjectures because I, like everybody else, cannot see or analyze the whole picture.

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#68
In reply to #64

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:33 PM

Thanks. I look forward to that reply. I will be out this evening so I may not get to read it until tomorrow.

I agree that there is strong evidence that our burning of fossil fuel is pumping CO2 into the atmosphere and that CO2 is changing the planetary concentration.

Where I run afoul of the cries that CO2 is responsible for the current changes in average surface temperatures is that we have strong historical evidence that suggests otherwise.

I just posted this chart (many times before) that illustrates the relationship (or lack thereof) between CO2 and surface temperature.

The chart is not a debunking of AGW (Al Gore Warming as I like to call it), but it raises questions about the real association between CO2 and surface temperature. This is why when I see a chart showing a 100 or 200 year track of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature used as proof of AGW or causation I raise a red flag.

The data only shows a correlation and there is a much broader set of data that seems to suggest that what we are seeing in the past 200 years may simply be a statistical fluke.

In my career as an engineer I have seen many instances where we, as a team, were chasing our tails based on what turned out to be a correlation based only on chance and not actually linked to the real causative agent.

I do not know what is really driving climate change nor do I know what percentage of this current change is anthropogenic. I am not yet convinced anyone else truly knows, either. I do believe the CO2 argument has been proven to be very weak.

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#104
In reply to #68

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 12:06 AM

I know that this is a later reply that I anticipated but later is better than never.

I'm disappointed but not surprised that after so many claims that scientific proofs are needed to settle the global warming debate that only my solitary link to that supports the Seuss effect discovered more than fifty years ago. (I repeated the Wikipedia link here for those who may finally choose to look. If you want the scientific study go look at the link in my earlier reply.) I do acknowledge that the work of Zbigniew Jaworowski was cited but not linked earlier. His work does have a bearing in the chemistry of gas bubbles trapped in an ice core and therefore are very pertinent to some of the debate of global warming. To my knowledge ice core analysis typically attempts to compensate for the skewing in the CO2 concentrations that he documented because scientists typically do compensate for a bias known for fifty years. I will not debate which study does or does not properly compensates for this effect for two simple reasons, no studies have been cited and this effect has no bearing on the Seuss effect or the point I wish to make here on CO2 measurements.

The Seuss effect shows that humanity does belch into the atmosphere more fossil related carbon into the atmosphere than what the biosphere naturally exchanges between biomass and atmosphere. Now for those who need an additional refresher, carbon 14 has a half-life of 5,740 years. Carbon 14 is produced in the upper atmosphere at a reasonably consistent pace from the neutrons of cosmic rays interacting with nitrogen. Now the carbon 14 concentration level does have a pivotal deviation beyond the Seuss effect that is important to know, the impulse from atmospheric nuclear testing.

This plot was obtained from the Wikipedia page on carbon 14. This plot shows two interesting things about our atmosphere. First, it takes two years for an atmospheric effect in the northern hemisphere to reach the southern hemisphere. Second, the exchange of atmospheric carbon with the biomass tracks a differential equation relationship (exponential) with a time constant of about twenty five years.

So what does this have to do with opinions, disproof and proof about atmospheric CO2? I said earlier that I would be clear about what I consider my opinion and a proof of a facet. The Seuss effect tracked the gradual downward trend of carbon 14 since the start of the industrial age until publication in the middle of the twentieth century, about a century of time. The impulse of the atmospheric nuclear tests shows that the Seuss analysis was over a sufficiently long period of time to not be effected by effects of biomass absorption of carbon. The Seuss effect is a proven facet.

So I believe that the Seuss effect supports the concept that we now significantly contribute to the CO2 concentration level change on this planet. There is an additional point though that I wish to make of the two time effects that I identified earlier. Any individual archived CO2 analysis of a sample that spans two years or less is only valid for the local condition and can easily be a significant deviation from average CO2 levels of the time. More important the 25 year time constant between atmosphere and biomass makes me question any biomass archive data that doesn't span four time constants as a valid representation of the CO2 global average level.

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#106
In reply to #104

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 1:38 AM

Depends on what you call significant. Whether one is a believer in anthropogenic global warming or not, there seems to be consensus that man's contribution to atmospheric co2 is 3% and nature 97%. Even if I play along and pretend to believe ALL of the claims of AGW, ignore the fact that co2 is NOT a driver of climate, ignore the fact that the effect of co2 is logarithmic, ignore the Milankovich cycles, Ignore the fact that temperature rises first and then co2 increases (i.e., co2 is reactionary, not causative), that 3% just isn't significant. I will pretend I believe that co2 is 8% of "global warming," as AGW proponents contend. AGAIN: 0.08 x 0.03 = 0.0024. Multiply by 100 to convert to percentile and we get man's contribution to global warming by way of "man-made" co2 emissions: ONE-QUARTER OF ONE PERCENT. Big deal. AGAIN: prove a warmer earth is bad and a colder earth is good. AGAIN: This interglacial period will end soon enough and render this whole discussion moot. OF interest though, saintly Dr. Hansen (you remember him, NASA's chief falsifier of data?) testified to Congress that the "man-made" CO2 was somehow different and more harmful, vile, and evil than "regular" CO2. Look at the Seuss effect closely. Teeny tiny variations in isotopic makeup aren't going to make anything even remotely resembling a measurable difference in "global warming."

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#107
In reply to #104

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 7:43 AM

I think you did a very good job with your argument.

I do not disagree with your analysis and proof that humans are increasing the atmospheric concentration of CO2.

The next leap is determining what contribution the CO2 has to altering the normal climate cycles of our planet. I am not finding compelling evidence of this and I think Jerry has done a good job explaining that CO2 does not appear to be a significant enough force to drive climatic changes.

I may be wrong, but again, I can not find compelling evidence for CO2 as a villain here. Instead, I think it has become more of a straw man argument for selling carbon credits, which have become a monetary scam.

Personally, I am more concerned with the poisons we (mankind) belch into the air, water, and soil of the planet than I am in CO2. Sadly, it appears that poison credits are not as profitable as CO2 credits. Let's not forget about trash (litter), too.

I don't know if we are really are significantly altering our planet's climate. We clearly can't model and predict any change that we claim we are causing, so I am not all excited and up in arms over the issue. I am concerned about groups and governments pushing agendas that will clearly negatively impact our economics and our liberties under the banner of AGW.

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#108
In reply to #107

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 11:41 AM

Thank You. I appreciate an acknowledgement of my efforts.

I agree that my analysis does not quantify how much global heating will occur from the anthropogenic CO2 contribution. That requires considerably more analysis than simple linear or exponential relations. I sadly do not expect this forum can respectfully tolerate the time and details to generate a plausible number. I am not saying that anyone should take my word on this. I'm saying that this analysis is available to be scrutinized by anyone willing to investigate it. I provided data and references for the parts of the global warming debate I feel qualified to make.

I believe (notice that this is an opinion) that a key problem of the entire global warming debate are the vast number of "red herrings" brought into an amateur discussion that never get methodically challenged. Instead bits and fragments of competing study results are recalled from memory to support one perspective or another. Let me now demonstrate what I believe should be done by examining the Milankovitch cycles that jerrrys brought to this debate.

The image and the link are once again the Wikipedia site information on this topic. The cycles of this celestial mechanics of motion have periods of 21,000, 26,000 and 41,000 years. I copied the timing diagram from the Wikipedia site because it includes the maligned Vostock ice core extrapolated temperature data and the extrapolated sea level from fossil benthic foram data. Now unless one expects our use of fossil fuel to last for many more millenia, any changes in climate that happens during our use of this energy source cannot be attributed to the Milankovitch cycle. What is very interesting is that the chart includes the calculated seasonal insolation (Q) from the Milankovitch cycle. The wave form of Q does not appear to me to be the dominant controller of either the Vostock temperature or the benthic sea level. The Milankovitch cycle is not only too long of a cycle to be a factor during our use of fossil fuel, it appears to not have ever been the domminant effect on the global temperature of this planet. I believe the Milankovitch cycle is a "red herring" in this debate.

However, there is one significant point that many will overlook in this chart that I wish to point out here. The temperature change presented by the Vostock core data shows a Δ3K. The proper temperature scale should be an absolute temperature scale reading for analysis. This deviation is about 1% (aka ±0.5%) of the absolute temperature. It does not take a big difference in the energy absorbed or lost by this planet to make a significant change in climate.

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#112
In reply to #108

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 3:23 PM

You demonstrate convincingly why use of Wiki articles for science is a poor idea. ANYBODY can put whatever they want in a wiki article. I would never quote one as a source even if it supported my position. I wouldn't call Milankovich cycles a "red herring" or any other derogatory term you wish to use to discount and discredit. The actual work began in the 1800s. It was put forth when there was no politicization of climate research. Milankovich put in many years on the mathematics of the theory as there were no computers when he began his work. He proved his point, showing direct correlation between the SUN and earth's relationship to it and temperatures (climate) on earth. The SUN always has been and most likely always will be THEE Primary driver of climate on planet earth. The research was so thorough, having been ongoing since the 1800s, that by the time Milankovich and company published their results and the results showed that a new 90,000 to 100,000 year period of prolific glaciation could be expected pretty much "any time" (in geologic terms), the mainstream media got all hysterical with the news and scientists were coming up with all kinds of crazy ideas to stop the oncoming ice age, including using nuclear energy to melt the glaciers and spreading coal dust over the ice to absorb the sun's heat instead of reflecting it back into space. Nobody was arguing against Milankovich's conclusions. His work had already been heavily scrutinized by INDEPENDENT scientists and accepted. I stress INDEPENDENT because AGW proponents do the equivalent of grading their friend's homework. Indeed they are hostile and uncooperative with any INDEPENDENT confirmation or attempted confirmation of their research and/or conclusions. The AGW proponents like to stress "peer-reviewed;" code word for "friend-reviewed."

The dramatic changes in climate such as the MWP and LIA were both accompanied by variations in the sun's output, greater output in the case of the Medieval Warm period, and reduced output in the case of the LIttle Ice age. There are, of course, other factors involved in climate. The next most major factor being the ocean currents, which also move in cycles, cycles of approximately 60 years in both the Atlantic and Pacific. These have both turned or are in the process of turning now and the effect will be COLDER weather, particularly winters. I think we just saw that in Europe. The Atlantic and Pacific aren't in lock-step, but they are very very close. Neither you nor anyone else will ever make an accurate climate model. It is way too complex with way too many factors involved. What is for certain is co2 is irrelevant. HISTORY proves that most conclusively.

THEE big concern should be chemical pollution with heavy metals and various chemical toxins and invasive species, etc., rather than Co2 which is not now, nor will it ever be, a driver of climate.

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#113
In reply to #112

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 6:42 PM

So if you don't like the data I cite, you really should cite a source you do like at the very least. This way we know that you are not making up data to fit your opinion. If you bother to follow my latest link you will find a different Milankovitch page that also compares the Vostock ice core temperatures to the Milankovitch cycle. In figure 2 this webpage claims that the ice core and Milankovitch cycle correlates. I don't see the correlation.

Regardless of this correlation or not, the shortest period this Milankovitch webpage identifies is 26,000 years. The difference between now and the earliest recorded human civilization is only 5,000 years. The Milankovitch cycle is such a slow rate of change that any deviations directly measured or observed by humanity will not be from the Milankovitch cycle.

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#109
In reply to #104

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 12:16 PM

GA. Very clear explanation. However, I still have a problem with the degassing that occurs within the oceans itself not being sufficiently accounted in the models. We have significant degassing from underwater volcanism and from hydrates. In my previous post I referred to the Storrega slide that actually occurred 8000 years ago between Norway and Greenland. Yet it is only been the last few years that anyone could find evidence of these unstable plumes of methane and CO2 still being released.Still the monitoring of the release of methane and CO2 from these underwater sources is woefully poor. Yet these releases may be very high. The recent Haiti disturbance, the Japan disturbance, the Indonesia disturbance are a few examples where little is known of these releases. isotope ratios may not be a good tool in such circumstances. Most models seem to account for only a small portion of these releases. We also do not have a handle on any oscillations of these disturbances. Man is a contributor to atmospheric CO2 and only the most ardent of denier will maintain such stance. My stance is hedged simply because no one has answered the underwater releases sufficient as of today. If man has a somewhat weaker contribution (mother nature being much larger), correction may be impossible or very difficult. I am stuck for time or I would delve deeper. I continue to add my opinion and am in a position to change such opinion if someone can show me the light. Great comment from you Redfred.

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#111
In reply to #109

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 1:12 PM

Thank You.

I only had the time to glance at your hydrates link but it does mention that some of the old deviations in isotope levels are likely related to volcanic disturbances. Knowing now that the re-stabilization time constant of today and presumably the past is about 25 years we can safely say that the volcanic disturbance was within 125 years of that carbon sample being stored. When I get more time I will review your links.

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#110
In reply to #104

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 12:36 PM

Despite the depth of my analysis here, I completely forgot to make a key point. Contrary to what many global warming alarmists wish to recognize, the 25 year decay time constant into the biomass, oceans and any other CO2 absorbers means that carbon sequestration is advisable only if we continue to consume fossil fuel. Five time constants after we stop adding to the CO2 level the planet CO2 level will again equalize.

Now I am convinced that the global economic pains from an abrupt stoppage of the use of fossil fuels are not worth returns of returning to within 1% of the CO2 level in 125 years. At the same time people that will be negatively impacted by global warming will need significant help from people who benefit from fossil fuel usage. This last aspect is where international politics must come into play. As we all know when politics at any level must be considered, often rational thought leaves.

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#34
In reply to #16

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:02 AM

He's doing the opposite of jumping to a conclusion. In fact, he is offering YOU the chance to make your case and, instead of doing so, you complain that he won't see things your way and why should he? You haven't offered PROOF. Correlation is not causation. As I'm driving my motorcycle down the highway a crash occurs nearby, a car is run off the road. It's rush hour, there are many other vehicles on the road. Why would you jump to the conclusion I caused it?

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#46
In reply to #34

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:36 AM

I have to agree with AH on this.

The problem we have now of is showing proof, is that one can get buried in the proof of statistics, observations, data collection, ect...., to a point that it takes a career to go through it.

If that isn't bad enough. The proof can get selective, where the proof can support both sides on what actually is creating GW.

That is what I always felt is the debate.

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#29
In reply to #12

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:16 AM

Excess of CO2? Are you sure? Because historically, the last geologic era that saw co2 levels this LOW was about 300 million years ago. Co2 levels fluctuate on this planet, at least as high as 2400 ppm (with no observed ill effects) and as low as 180 ppm. of interest, green plants shut down at 150 ppm and below. So we can within 30 ppm of utter devastation. The MEAN co2 level for planet earth appears to be about 1500 ppm. Coincidentally, that's about the optimum level for green plants. The FIRST question that ought to be asked is, "is a warmer earth bad?" Historically, warmer earth supports more life (think dinosaur era); a colder earth less life (ice age, anyone?). The planet has been in an ice age for half a million years. We are presently in a warm period called an interglacial. The interglacial periods last about 10,000 to 12,000 years. We are coming to the end of an interglacial. It is NORMAL to have warming at the end of an interglacial. The interglacials are preceded by and followed by approximately 90,000 years of prolific glaciation.

CO2 is irrelevant. Even global warming alarmists don't deny that temperatures rise FIRST, then co2 levels increase. Then temperatures decline while co2 levels remain elevated and then co2 levels also decline, albeit more slowly than the temperature. There is a 100-year to 1000-year time lag between the temperature increase and the resultant release of co2 from the ocean depths into the atmosphere. These facts clearly demonstrate that co2 is reactionary and not causative. co2 IS a greenhouse gas, but an extremely minor player. Water vapor is THEE primary greenhouse gas and variations in water vapor swamp whatever contribution co2 is making (which isn't much, given it's extremely miniscule proportion of the atmosphere at less than 400 parts per MILLION). Another fact to consider is the effect of co2 is logarithmic and by 280 ppm, further increases in co2 are simply inconsequential. Anthropogenic global warming is a politically motivated hoax, perpetrated by the IPCC (a political body, not scientific) a part of the UN. Public acceptance of this hoax is necessary to further THEIR agenda of a carbon tax which is simply wealth redistribution from developed nations to undeveloped nations with the crooks at the UN acting as middleman and taking a huge cut. The IPCC and various govt's, particularly the US govt, have thrown billions of dollars at any "scientist" or publication that will support this pseudoscience. Hansen at GISS (NASA is subservient to the Vice President - remember Al Gore?), Mann, and Jones have all been caught falsifying and manipulating data and none of their predictions made with their climate models ever worked. For some real insight without all the doublespeak, try "CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time" by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc., March 2007, and take a look at the work of Ernst Georg Beck who researched real time (not proxy data, real measurements) co2 measurements going back 200 years. His research contradicts the contentions of the AGW alarmists by demonstrating conclusively that co2 has varied a good deal in the last 200 years, as high as 330 ppm in the 1800s.

A major hedge fund hired a scientist to advise them with regards to trading in carbon credits. He, like most people, didn't have much reason to disbelieve all the hype about anthropogenic global warming until he started to research it. He ended up writing a 500-page report on this hoax. He talked firsthand with the scientists pushing this gobbledy-gook as well as the politicos at the UN. In his own words, he saved the hedge fund from making a monumental mistake.

Further, you might just look into the matter of Danes farming Greenland for about 300 years, starting in the 900s. It was called the Medieval warm period. It was warmer then than it is now. It was warming during Roman times than it is now. In fact, warmer temperatures coincide with advancement of civilization, more prosperity, less disease, less war. Colder climes (the little ice age that began in 1250,for example) associated with disease (black plague) poverty, starvation, warfare, and regression of civilization (dark ages). The Little Ice restored Greenland's glaciers and the Danish colonies died out. Many of them were stubborn and refused to leave or adapt. The colony literally died out.

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#42
In reply to #29

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:55 AM

"Even global warming alarmists don't deny that temperatures rise FIRST, then co2 levels increase .. " Really? Any evidence for this statement?

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 4:16 AM

Yeah, the much-touted Vostok (? spelling) ice cores prove that the temperature increases first, and the co2 increase comes later. This isn't a secret. Instead of asking me for proof, you can do what I do, find the answer yourself the same way I do, with my computer and the internet. I go for the most "raw" science I can find so that I can be reasonably assured that it hasn't been altered by some hack journalist. As you seem to like weighing in on this topic, perhaps you should familiarize yourself with the various aspects a bit and do a bit of research on your own instead of repeatedly calling into question assertions made by those who actually HAVE put in the research time and effort.

The AGW people acknowledge that the warmer temperatures come first, then the increased co2 and yet somehow in their convoluted thinking they believe (or want people to believe) that the co2 increase causes warmer temperatures. If you are asking for proof that that is what AGW proponents believe, you have a computer. Help yourself. Try Skeptical Science. That's their favorite pseudoscience web site. And there are no doubt Wikipedia articles making the same assertions. Also found a Yale University article (PRO AGW article) by a "scientist" who acknowledged that the effect of co2 is logarithmic and then tries to convince the reader that co2 is still relevant IN SPITE of the fact that the effect is logarithmic. As these articles are nonsense, I'll not attempt to regurgitate them. You are, of course, more than welcome to peruse them yourself. If you come away confused, don't be alarmed. if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with.....

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#102
In reply to #43

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 2:54 PM

Your parent post to this one the response has been the clearest lead I have ever seen. as well as your response on this post.

This isn't a secret. Instead of asking me for proof, you can do what I do, find the answer yourself the same way I do, with my computer and the internet.

That carries more weight of what I have experienced. From other posts of just believe or show me the data, Of course references are important to validate, but your reference of Vostok is plenty of direction to get one that truly has an interest, get off their butt and look. That is where I have learn the most from.

And for that, I do have to you a GA, for two reasons, one of the direction of Vostok, And two for the motivational push.

People have to DEVELOP their own conclusions, and not parrot a group.

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#103
In reply to #102

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 3:55 PM

Sadly enough that asking for proof is what causes the greatest amount of trouble and arguments.

The problems I see largely comes from the "Just believe" types where anyone who questions them or asks for data and references to why they believe automatically gets labeled a denier and thusly there is no reason to provide proof because they are not a believer.

The second part of this problem comes from those people asking for references and data simply because they are curious or skeptical and want to learn why or what made that person so rigidly believe in the first place automatically getting labeled deniers when all they wanted is more information so that they can make up their own minds about the overall relevancy and validity or the present data and information that is at hand.

I am a skeptic not a denier. I know the climate is changing just as it always has. I however do not see these changes as all bad either. The world will not come to an end and all of humankind will not go extinct in one fell swoop either. From all the data and information I have seen so far from my perspective I see I have potentially far more to gain from these potential changes than I have to loose.

Because of that view that I have more to gain than to loose is why I am against jumping on the gloom and doom for all band wagon. Sorry but being I see gains from this that's why I fight the theoretical changes being proposed. I don't want a lesser future for me because it's convenient or gainful for someone else other than me and those around me who I care about.

Bring on the rain, the drought, the wind, the snow, the sun, the clouds, the food and fuel shortages, and whatever else you fear will inconvenience your life style. My life style is built on those things and has provisions to handle the extremes of all of them and in many ways put each of them to work for me for my own advantages and gains!

(BTW, I have a good bulldozer and a backhoe now too so bring on the raiding hoards and looters as well. I can dig mass graves with ease now and all that meat protean from the dead bodies will just make my garden and crops grow that much better. )

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#53
In reply to #29

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:22 AM

Jerrys --

Much of what you say is stuff I've seen on-line and in print elsewhere. But I have to say, your presentation is one of the clearest and most succinct discussions I've seen. GA.

I like your implied point that if people were truly open-minded, they'd be looking up this stuff themselves. (For example, NY Times economist Paul Krugman never provides links to the articles he discusses.)

Nevertheless, I'd like to see you do a blog entry yourself where you discuss these points in more detail and take the time to link to the articles you mention.

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#17
In reply to #7

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:06 PM

Hi Larry (please excuse my informality),

"Personally, I do not believe there is proof that mankind is contributing significantly to global warming. However I believe the probability is high that we are and we should be doing something about it."

You've go me a bit lost on that one. Is it not time when must nail our colours to the flag (Brit idiom). Proof may never come to be, but as with many courts we might be able to say 'beyond reasonable doubt' (and on that basis, action taken).

Nice intro blog - I hope you will add further. Rather late here, so I'll have to read the newsletter later.

Kris.

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#21
In reply to #17

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:22 PM

Hey Kris,

Yes, I personally believe that proof is "beyond reasonable doubt" and action needs to be taken. Even in a court of law (GB or US?) would the truth emerge?

Larry

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#22
In reply to #21

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:27 PM

Thanks for getting back to me, Larry . Very late here, so I need time to digest and consider. Good to have you onboard.

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#8

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 1:54 PM

This raises the question of why they are only using import air conditioners as a support for the argument without considering all air conditioner sales. Is the market naturally shifting more toward imports anyway?

The title of the article, "Air conditioner imports rise with summer temperatures" seems a bit strange. I would have intrinsically thought that people would buy more A/C units in the summer just as people buy coats and gloves in the winter.

Lastly, The recent heat wave in the central US is a likely cause for the spike in sales, but it would be more useful to assign global warming to the heat wave (if that could effectively have been done) rather than use data that could have multiple other assignable causes that drive an increase of sales.

It is also important to see that the "study" only states it is a 3-year high, which implies there have been spikes that exceed the current one in the past. The sample period is too small an too affected by other causative agents to draw a meaningful conclusion.

I hardly consider this as the real truth, just incomplete and perhaps useless information and a bit humorous (as I assume it was written).

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#19
In reply to #8

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:13 PM

This article refers to window ac which are made mostly in China, ~95% of global production. The remaining 5% come from Asian countries such as Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and VietNam.

I agree that the title of the referenced article is misleading. It refers to the seasonal cycle which naturally peaks in summer. The point the author was actually making is this is the highest peak in the last three years...which is not particularly significant but does captivate interest in a topic that has high emotional appeal.

I do wholeheartedly agree with another post made referencing the politicization of the global warming issue. This is unfortunate. It is a tough enough issue already without throwing it into the meatgrinder of politics. Any ideas on how we could de-politicize this issue and put it back into the arena of a fair debate between the scientists and engineers who can argue the facts for all of us to see and comment on?

OK, I agree. I'm getting a little starry eyed at the moment, but if you don't reach for the stars you won't get past the treetops.

Larry

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#20
In reply to #19

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:26 PM

Thank you for the (lack of) reply. Google 'Oscar Wilde' next time you reply and quote stars. I have just unscubscribed from this one.

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#32
In reply to #19

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:49 AM

We don't have to "throw it into the meatgrinder of politics!' the "left has claimed it as a rallying plank and throws it in our face every chance the get. I for one am tired of it, and am far from convinced that it has ANY validity other than something 'lefties' want to tax us over.

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#9

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 1:58 PM

If people really cared about 'global warming' they'd leave Vermont!:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/06/09/save-the-planet-get-out-of-vermont/

Over the course of a year, homes that primarily use air conditioning consume less energy than homes that primarily use heating.

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#28
In reply to #9

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:36 PM

Damn! Shut down Canada just when we are about to benefit from global warming. That ain't fair. It is hard to argue against global warming if in the end we get warmer and Canada is a net winner. I just planted my banana trees. Now if you want to push for an ice age, the USA will have to look out for the illegals from the Great White North.

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#51
In reply to #28

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:08 AM

Geez-o-pete. There's plenty of you folks already here, aye.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_actors

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#26

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:19 PM

As an atheist, I respect evidence. The evidence I see is that humans have added so much carbon dioxide to the air that it is raising global temperatures to a level that will seriously and negatively affect humanity, and the rest of the ecology. The politicization is the fossil fuel industry buying out legislators, our media and our top psychologists to save their profits. The economics is that world standard of living is going to drop a lot because of drought and heat stress on agriculture, flooding and fires, and extreme weather events. We won't respond in time because our rational responses are blocked by our culture of competitive greed over cooperation with other humans. We're all in the same sinking lifeboat Earth, but we think only the other end is sinking.

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#30
In reply to #26

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:32 AM

I like evidence. Put yours on the table. I want to see it.

Anybody remember Milankovich cycles? The global warming alarmists first tried to ignore and dismiss Milankovich, et al, and then resorted to acknowledging same and attempted to graft their AGW religion onto the foundation of Milankovich and company.

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#49
In reply to #26

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:45 AM

I also respect evidence, and that requires that you look at ALL evidence.

I agree that humans of late have added a great deal carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. We have polluted a large portion of our planet. Was it irresponsible? Yes. But let's look at some evidence shall we.

Find some old pictures from the 1800's or so (this evidence is in the states, do we have similar results elsewhere?). Particularly those in the west. Many photos will not show even one tree. They were all cut down for use in building towns and railroads. Now get some shots of the same location today- most locations will be indistinguishable from the first because it will be grown up with trees. Nature has a way of bouncing back. look at Ohio, we had a river that caught on fire in the 70's for gosh sakes. Today fish and wildlife are back again.

So let's look a little closer at the trees. How big are they? How fast do they grow? Several biologists have said, "trees today are stressed, they can't breathe." Can we grow the huge trees now found buried in the marshes of New Zealand? Can we come close to growing the massive amounts of vegetation that produced the coal seams that are mined today? Didn't all that vegetation have to 'breathe' CO2?

And speaking of coal- Wasn't there a time in the 70's when the fear was, "an ice age was coming" And science of the day was blaming the use of coal and the pollution it created. So putting the shoe on the other foot- If we were in an ice age or one was coming, do you think we could possibly use enough fossil fuels to hold back the glaciers and warm the planet up?

What has really been done is - 'gold mines' in the air have been created. A nondescript , innocuous chemical has been brought to the fore front of the publics mind as a villan, and only certain 'corporations' and banks, have the super hero power to confine it from doing the public harm. (Gee, I wonder why farmers were never given this break when they grew stuff to offset the cost of fuel in their machines) This new commodity has created new business models as stated:

http://www.newforests.net/

The New Forests Company is a UK-based sustainable and socially responsible forestry company with established, rapidly growing plantations and the prospect of a diversified product base for local and regional export markets which will deliver both attractive returns to investors and significant social and environmental benefits

http://www.infowars.com/armed-troops-burn-down-homes-kill-children-to-evict-ugandans-in-name-of-global-warming/

"Friday, September 23, 2011

Armed troops acting on behalf of a British carbon trading company backed by the World Bank burned houses to the ground and killed children to evict Ugandans from their homes in the name of seizing land to protect against "global warming," a shocking illustration of how the climate change con is a barbarian form of neo-colonialism."

The evictions were ordered by New Forests Company, an outfit that seizes land in Africa to grow trees then sells the "carbon credits" on to transnational corporations. The company is backed by the World Bank and HSBC. Its Board of Directors includes HSBC Managing Director Sajjad Sabur, as well as other former Goldman Sachs investment bankers."

So the politicization goes both ways.

I would not have believed the eviction story at all until I happened to meet one of the mercenaries myself. The gold kuugerand bars in his safe, he said, "were payment for wiping out several villages, men, women and children"- whom he was told were "poachers"

And "no" the standard of living will not change from drought and heat stress of agriculture and such, but from the perceived value of your 'money' which is controlled by the banks.

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:55 AM

Good day deanpavil,

I see you joined CR4 in 2011, GW was a very heated discussion here on CR4 especially around 2009-2010....

And allot that is being stated on this post is regurgitated from earlier threads.......

I think the break from GW's earlier threads rejuvenated people

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#27

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:26 PM

Technology needs to be dumped altogether.. for the good of the planet! And volcanoes need to be put in jail with the big meteors.. And we need to have the sun sign a contract to burn longer and direct it's solar flares elsewhere under penalty of law.. and and and.. what if? -good grief (Charles Brown)

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#47
In reply to #27

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:40 AM

We also have to genetically engineer a 'current bush' so we can plug our electric devices in.

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#52
In reply to #47

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:10 AM

I am working on a more portable solution using a lamb. I call it the electric veal.

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#55
In reply to #52

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:19 AM

Fantastic, does it fit in a suit case when I travel to Europe?

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#56
In reply to #55

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:24 AM

It's a walk behind.

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#31

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:47 AM

Or maybe the aircons have got cheaper and more can afford to buy!

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#33

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:52 AM

With regards to global warming altogether, I don't know either way but our Aussie government seems convinced it's happening. So much so that as of July 2012 we are paying carbon tax! Yes that's true. We bad Aussies polluting the world are getting taxed...well the big companies anyway, but they in turn will pass the cost to us.

So is the authorities pumping this idea only to introduce another means to top up the piggy bank?

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#35

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:10 AM

OP's presentation is gently put, arrant nonsense. I do not care about his beliefs one way or the other.

But, science is NOT concensus. Newton was not, Einstein could not give a flying bleep, nor a whole host of others. On the other hand, in 1900 the French Academy of Sciences voted, that heavier than air flight cannot and will not happen. 3 years later, the Wright brothers did it. It seems, they were simply too disrespectful of their learned betters, not knowing their proper place in a civil society?!?

I happened across a research presented in Mail Online. Tree rings prove climate was warmer in Roman and Medieval times than is now - and the world has been cooling for 2,000 years.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study/Index.html

Study of semi-fossilized trees gives accurate reading back to 138BC.

In science a single observation counters accepted wisdom. Voting is for politicians, with their well known record of meddlings. Usually not for better outcome, except for those with chronically short memories.

My personal add-on. Earth spends most of its time in IceAges. It is punctuated by short, roughly 13,000 years long warm periodes. If we accept this scenario, we live in borrowed times, before cold takes the upper hand again.

Cogitate on that for a change. I am with the Wright brothers, a hard nosed agnostic on the subiect matter. Market research, as science, my foot!

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#41
In reply to #35

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:45 AM

It's often forgotten that the actual climate scientists reckon we'll need > 30years of data to see if there's an actual change going on.

The fact that global temps have risen a bit proves nothing we'll need to see what happens long term.

However, based on their models of how the earth's climate systems work it looks like CO2 will have an effect, how much is open to debate. Anyone claiming last weeks hot or cold spell proves something is mistaken.

Unfortunately the media sell more by putting out inflammatory headlines and have no interest in promoting any sort of balance, so we'll continue to see the "sea level to rise 100m by end of decade" drivel.

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#44

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 6:18 AM

A 3-year high? I don't think you can prove anything just looking at the last 3 years.

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#54
In reply to #44

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:30 AM

No, especially in this economy. It could simply be that, due to lower incomes, people put-off buying new A/C units over the past few years, but now their old units have failed and they've had to buy new ones. Hence the recent surge is merely due to delayed expenditures.

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#48

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:41 AM

There have been MULTIPLE iceages in earths history. What happened between them? DUh!! It warmed up. Man wasn't around to blame for the past warming cycles so why should we(man) fall on our swords for this warming cycle in geologic history?

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#60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:19 AM

I take a different approach to AGW God how I hate these acronyms, I want to know if we can prove that CO2 does not cause global warming, because if it does, and if we continue to produce it, we may well hit the point of no return and our atmosphere become like that of Venus.

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#63
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:24 AM

What kind of proof do you actually need or require?

And if that is supplied, would you accept it?

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#73
In reply to #63

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 2:10 PM

The Grand Canyon has flooded five times in its existance. None of the times it flooded, man was around to see it. The water came from the polar ice caps. Global warming caused it and it will again. There is nothing man has or can do about it.

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#74
In reply to #73

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 2:21 PM

I got only two things I have to say about tha'at.

  1. It would help if you have references to that, otherwise that is nothing more than a statement.
  2. and I am not the one requesting proof
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#75
In reply to #74

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:31 PM

http://www.t-rat.com/Pages/GeologicalHistGrandCanyon.html

I'm at work and don't have much time to look, but maybe you can read this while you're waiting on a bus.

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#76
In reply to #75

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:44 PM

oh, now your sending me on a bus trip.

I hope no one takes my bench

where am I going?

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#77
In reply to #75

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:48 PM

Cool link!

I have been there, but not that long ago. :)

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#65
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:10 PM

Venus is hot because of the atmospheric pressure and its proximity to our Sun, not, as many people have been led to believe, due to the concentration of CO2.

The other indicator that CO2 may not be a direct factor as far as surface temperature is concerned is that historically we have had much higher concentrations of CO2 (before man) and the surface temperature was both warmer and colder than average temperatures today.

We know that we are pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, but what is not clear is the corresponding effects this will have and clearly we have had periods of much, much, higher concentrations of CO2 in our historical past.

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#70
In reply to #65

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:34 PM

Why the hell did I put the crack about Venus in there, now it is being used as a straw man. I don't care how Venus became hot, only that with a permanent cloud cover, it cannot go back.

My point was that the emphasis on proving that CO2 does cause global warming is backwards. We need to know that it does not cause global warming, to find the single negative that negates the theory.

I have to search, I had a chart once that showed something other than yours, I don't remember where I put it.

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#72
In reply to #70

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:39 PM

I don't care how Venus became hot, only that with a permanent cloud cover, it cannot go back.

Wasn't you that asked for proof? Nothing better than a comparison.

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#87
In reply to #72

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:53 PM

If you are going to reply to my posts, do me the courtesy of reading them first. I just picked Venus because it cannot go back, it is beyond the point of no return.

I hope that we are not responsible for GW but if we are, there is the danger of passing the tipping point. While there are many indicators that add to the theory that we are responsible, it would take only one negative to disprove it. I think we should be looking for that negative.

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#96
In reply to #87

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 7:46 AM

As far as the courtesy, if your offended from me actually reading your post, that I see no reason to apologize for..

Yes I was replying to your reference to your post #60.

this is sounding like tit for tat and as far as courtesy, thank you for actually finally responding though indirectly from my post #63 to you.

That is the problem, proof of GW is not discreet, not black and white, yes or no. it is very grey. and IMO that is no proof either way. So proof is hard to present, unless you pick a side, and use selective data.

And as far as looking for the negative, I not sure I understand your meaning of negative.

I feel, one should narrow it down, how? no one has the answer to that including myself.

Maybe instead of looking at what is causing GW, look what is not causing GW. get rid of the distractions, would this help. I can't answer that.

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#69
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:55 PM

One reason why it's so hot on Venus is that its "DAY" lasts longer than its year. The rotation period is 243 Earth days and its year is 224 days 16 hours.How hot do you think it will be here on earth if the sun shines for 13 months?

On global warming, I do think it is getting warmer but since it started to get warmer about 12,000 years ago I don't think mankind has much to do about it. If and when the climate scientists can explain what caused the last ice age and why it ended, only then will I believe that they know enough to start monkeying around with the controls. Until then I think we should do what we have been doing for the last few million years-ADAPT.

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#91
In reply to #69

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 2:31 AM

"If and when the climate scientists can explain what caused the last ice age and why it ended....." It's called Milankovich cycles. The earth's relationship to the SUN, tilt on its axis (it varies), distance from the sun (it varies) whether it is further from the sun in the summer or winter... and variations in solar output (they are mostly cyclical with apparently some surprises from time to time).

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#97
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 9:33 AM

It is well documented (by VGW scientists probably) that Venus warming is venusiansgenic. It's settled. Don't start that debate again! S.M.

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#66

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:11 PM

There may be global warming, but it is all up to our sun, not humans..!!!

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#71

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:39 PM

My high school science taught me that warmer air holds more water. So if the earth warms, the balance of the amount of water in each of the phases will shift from solid (ice bergs & ice caps) to liquid to gas (atmosphere). Water in the atmosphere blocks energy from the sun so that it cannot warm the earth's surface. (Cloudy days are cooler than sunny days.) It is an ingenious self regulating feedback system.

We also know that if we fill a glass full of ice and then add water or scotch up to the brim so that the ice rises above the brim that if we get distracted and don't consume the contents and let the ice melt that the contents does not over flow the glass.

We also know that the volume of the oceans are much greater than the volume of the frozen water in the polar caps and the volume of the atmosphere is much greater than the oceans. Alarmists that say that the oceans will rise when the polar caps melt tend to ignore the these universally know scientific principles and leave them out of their models.

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#82
In reply to #71

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:14 PM

Alarmists that say that the oceans will rise when the polar caps melt tend to ignore the these universally know scientific principles and leave them out of their models.

Your principles are not correctly stated. For example, water in the atmosphere is a well-recognized greenhouse gas, and does not have the net effect of cooling, as you incorrectly imply.

But more importantly, uneducated alarmists are not scientists. I am not aware of any scientific model for seal level rise that leaves out the few parts of your post that are facts. To which model are you referring? Sea level rise is occurring mainly from ice over land melting, not ice that is already supported by water. Your glass of water analogy is taken into account in every model of which I am aware. Climate scientists are not as profoundly stupid as your "alarmists" who are unacquainted with the most basic science.

I gather than you (like many Fox News viewers) are unaware that Antarctica is a land mass.

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#83
In reply to #82

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:59 PM

I watch fox news and I have always known that Antarctica was a land mass as is Greenland. Many fox news watchers are far more well informed than the true believers at MSMBC.

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#84
In reply to #82

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:25 PM

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap09/rossow.html
This website states that clouds both cool, and warm the earth, but the net effect is "cooling". So 'who' are you going to believe and 'why'?
My point is the exact same one that you have been spouting, that you yourself reject the "facts" that don't fit your political view point, because you have already made up your mind. That is as good a place as any to end this thread, as it is going to settle nothing. Ya'll can keep it up if you want to but I have had enough.

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#98
In reply to #84

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 12:49 PM

So 'who' are you going to believe and 'why'?

I will believe the qualified scientists, just as (should the need arise) I will go to a heart surgeon rather than a butcher. Politicians are fundamentally clueless about this -- they don't have the education or experience to understand the science. People who think that the ice melting analogy presented by Snave is not taken into account in sea level rise models are, functionally speaking, idiots. They know nothing of the subject matter, and so contribute only noise. In other respects, Snave may be competent, but here, he presents a political, not scientific, argument.

I favor science over political screed, so must question why you bring up your non sequitur re clouds. Clouds are not water vapor, as anyone vaguely acquainted with basic science knows. Water vapor is an invisible gas, and has been well-accepted as a powerful greenhouse gas by scientists for many decades. So your comment is a distraction -- it has nothing to do with my comment. Yes, I believe that clouds can have a net cooling effect, but I did not bring up clouds in my post. I brought up water vapor, a different thing. If you can find a valid source that claims that water vapor is not a greenhouse gas, then present that, rather than something irrelevant.

The facts I've presented in my previous post have nothing to do with my political views. I present them to point out how silly the arguments (such as Snave's) can become if you throw science out the window, and rely only on myth.

You are right that this thread will settle nothing -- the people here are not climate scientists. It was started as a joke, of course. No one with a clue thinks that air conditioner sales actually have anything to do with global warming. But even so, such a thread brings out the anti-science crowd. Some of them are deadly earnest in "debunking" the air conditioner/warming "connection" because they are so out of touch that they can't even get the joke.

Your post is typical of the political end of the discourse. Rather than address anything in my post to which you are replying, you come up with a new distraction. This is the kind of thing that flies just fine on Fox news, but not in scientific circles. (What about clouds? What about sunspots? What about lollipops? What about the CO2 from Gore's jet?) Do we who care just ignore such drivel (effectively giving the wackos a stronger voice) or do we respond to the irrelevant drivel, wasting time that could be better spent?

Does the Fox News technique work? Sure. Now, several studies have shown that Fox news viewers actually become stupider as they watch more. Already at the bottom of the heap in understanding basic science and current events, (and apparently unable to evaluate an argument) the "shout louder" technique works just fine to make these folks even dumber and more pliable in the hands of those with power.

My point is the exact same one that you have been spouting, that you yourself reject the "facts" that don't fit your political view point, because you have already made up your mind.

I have not been "spouting" that I reject the facts. Just the opposite. I rely heavily on facts and scientific process. In the scientific process, as practiced by real scientists, consensus does, in fact, matter.

We have not proved how gravity works. But we have a consensus on certain gravitational principles. We have not proved that evolution is occurring, but have a very strong consensus that it is occurring in fundamental ways that we all agree about.

One can side with the scientists who are actually educated in the relevant sciences or one can side with one political viewpoint or another. I favor science for providing a better description of how things work. Politicians are out for money and power. Scientists thrive on figuring out what's really going on, and why.

Politicians throw in strawmen (such as confusing clouds with water vapor, suggesting that scientists are too stupid to allow for ice displacement, etc, etc, etc.) to "win" arguments by wearing down the opposition.

I am worn down, so do not generally participate in discussions like this one in which most of the arguments are fundamentally political rather than scientific (or are so ill-informed re the basic science to be of no scientific value).

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