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The Real Truth About Global Warming

Posted July 25, 2012 8:00 AM by larhere

Skeptics abound despite a near consensus on the reality of global warming. But if the scientists aren't convincing enough just follow the money!

US importers (the money) have a pretty good idea of whether warming is occurring. U.S. imports of window AC units hit a 3-year high in March 2012 at $255 million, or 1.8 million units.

Air conditioners aren't the only imports rising with the summer heat. Even the "poor man's" air-conditioner, the indoor fan, hit a 3-year high in 2012, with $163 million imported in April.

Read more at Panjiva

Editor's Note: CR4 would like to thank Larry Butz, President and CEO of GEA Consulting, for contributing this blog entry.

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#101
In reply to #98
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 1:26 PM

who are you saying has no humor

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#85
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 9:50 PM

Gonna have to take exception to your premise. Water has a MODERATING effect on the earth's temperature. And here's why. Latent heat of vaporization. A given quantity of water (in liquid state) requires X amount of energy to raise it one degree. It takes 973X amount of energy (973 times as much) for that same quantity of water to change from liquid state to gaseous state without an attendant rise in temperature. THAT is the latent heat of vaporization. This heat energy is effectively extracted from the surface of the earth. Via convection (heat rises) this heat energy is carried high up into the atmosphere. Here the water cools and condenses (returns to a liquid) and, in doing so, it surrenders the latent heat of vaporization high up in the atmosphere and this heat energy gets radiated back into space. The water (now in liquid form) returns to the surface as precipitation. This cycle repeats itself endlessly.

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#99
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 12:52 PM

Ken -

Although Dr. Andrew Dessler is a well respected scientist and a professor at a well respected university, he makes some wild claims such as: "Everyone agrees that if you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, then warming will result," Dessler said. "So the real question is, how much warming?"

A few years back I was put in charge of a research project to advance a technology. The study was concluded with a demonstration. I had a team of engineers and several firms that we contracted. In total there were four PHDs on the payroll. We had teaching professors from Cornell and Berkley. We also had a stack of reports from a well respected German PHD. Believe it or not, we found contradictions in the conclusions from the PHDs and we had pages of equations that I did not understand. What to do? We designed experiments. Then designed and built equipment to make the measurements.

The result was that the most respected German PHD in his field was just wrong on several of his conclusions. We were using one of his patented inventions but couldn't get it to work as claimed. It was a small mechanism that had a taper and a pivot. One controlled rate of action and the other controlled force. So we designed equipment instrumented with strain gauges feeding an analyzer. To our surprise, the tests showed that he had the interactions crossed. We were able to write new equations on how his invention worked and were then able to design and build devices that worked to expectations that met our needs.

The study also involved four other areas that we were to advance.

Armed with the real story on the science, we were able to design and build prototype hardware that achieved the goals established by our USG customer. The study was wrapped up by producing a collection of reports. We had reports which discussed the principles and we had reports from others with supporting test results. My group also filed for and received several patents.

Less than half of the work produced by the PHDs commissioned to work on the study produced any value.

So when a PHD makes a claim, I say: Show me the data.

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#100
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 1:23 PM

So when a PHD makes a claim, I say: Show me the data.
Good policy. Ditto re BS's and MS's.

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/28/2012 12:23 AM

Your high school teacher either did you a great disservice or you have a bad memory. A cloud is a colloidal suspension of water droplets in air. It is because the water droplets do a prismatic scattering of visible light that they appear to be white when seen as solitary clouds. Water vapor is a gas that does not scatter visible light. This is why a steam whistle does not create a continuous plume and that we cannot see the water rising to become a cloud later. The reason that you will feel cooler when a the shadow of a cloud covers you is that the cloud is absorbing and reflecting back to space the heat of the sun. At night a cloud cover will reduce radiant cooling into space.

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#78

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:52 PM

From everything I have been able to read an learn this is what global warming and climate change comes down to,

Everywhere that did not get colder or stay the same got warmer and everything in the first two gets ignored because they are not politically relevant.

I once did believe in the AGW hype and did my best to defend the facts. The problem was in order to defend those facts I had to find solid data and references to back then up. Unfortunately the deeper I dug the less creditable the AGW data became plus when comparing that data to the regular cycles and overall numbers of what relate to nature that data didn't even break through the average margin of error that goes with the global values of energies volumes mass or any other plausible natural events as measured and estimated by creditable science.

Sorry but I cant accept that when the upper limit estimates of what we do still cant break through the normal margin of error values for what is typical weather, climatic, or overall energy level variations let alone truly add or subtract from the systems as whole that this planet operates on that we are the cause or solution.

And no you cant see my data sources. It comes from places that are not on the approved list of reference sources for the AGW/climate change believers sect.

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#80
In reply to #78

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 5:18 PM

Oh, man, thank you so much for posting. That is similar to my experience except I never defended it because I didn't give it much thought UNTIL the climate-gate issue arose. Then I realized it was junk science. I still wasn't overly concerned because I didn't, at that point in time, know the MOTIVATION for AGW. Then came the carbon tax. THAT concerned me. I noticed the media just bombarding the public with these AGW scare stories. Already on to that modus operandi, using a "boogeyman" to get people all worked up and emotional and turn their brains off and just believe. The terrorist boogeyman/Muslim boogeyman (Patriot act, NDAA, etc.) and the financial Armageddon boogeyman (bail-outs for the uber-rich, screw the middle class). Now we have an environmental boogeyman, OMG, CO2!!!! That's plant food. Oh, the horror!!!. And they tip their hand, thank you, it's all about (BIG SURPRISE!!!) money (and power, of course). What is truly telling is exactly ZERO AGW "scientists" (and Al Gore) are willing to engage in a debate concerning this issue, even though there is an open invitation for them to do so. So, I chuckled a good deal upon reading your post. I caught on to them wanting us to get all worked up about numbers that didn't even exceed the margin of error. PRICELESS!

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#81
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 6:24 PM

The 'Just Believe" part is where it all falls/fell apart for me.

As most people who have ever gotten into any form of online debate over this subject have seen the 'Just Believers' claim to have all the proof and facts in the world to back them up yet oddly enough when it all comes down to it they are the ones who post the least amount of links to anything credible or otherwise and what they do link to tends to only come from their 'Prescribed and authorized list' of sources. Anything that comes from any source outside that list or is contradictory to their thoughts is not to be looked at accepted or to be taken as a valid, let alone plausible, source of data or information ever.

Good science does not have a prescribed list or a 'it's only correct if it agrees with this' political agenda or view. If the math and overall data doesn't add up or is highly inconclusive and large or very large primary influences in system at play have to ignored or tossed out to make something work then by my understanding that end result is not valid.

From what I have seen and participated in with these types of debates over the last number of years it sort of plays out like this.

CO2 is bad (except to all the plant life that we need to survive on).

Its never been hotter or higher in concentration (except since the last time it was higher or hotter but we cant discuss that because that was a "different" high or hotter point).

Water vapor has no effect or validity in these scenarios (except for the reality where it plays between 85 - 95+% of the role in it lowest and highest active levels).

Humans dump vast amounts of energy into the environment so they are at fault (except that when compared to nature we don't contribute even a very small fraction of a percent of what the planetary energy values are at any point in time and much of what we do use was borrowed directly from or is already part of a natural possess in the first place).

That's my take as someone who switched sides simply because my views of good science don't allow me to ignore the obvious or greater parts in favor of the less plausible or outright wrong political motivations.

Where I live warming things up year round is a good thing and benefits us greatly. If its doesn't benefit someone else, where the odds are the place they live in is already borderline hot and crappy to begin with, why would I want to change my ways?

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#95
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 7:32 AM

I agree the 'just believe' GW fanatics was the most detrimental to GW, but I do disagree about the link. Some of the just believe, when challenged them they would bury you in links data.

The problem I had was, there were information and data supporting both sides, when I pointed that out, the reply was very aggressive 'Just Believe', with no explanation the the data not supporting the 'just believe'.

There was no middle ground, you were either on board or not! As though it was that simple.

I was so tired of that, I told them, GW is happening as a natural cyclic action, and maybe, no matter how many carbon credits you purchased, its just that the Human Race was not part of earths future.

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#88
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:27 PM

You said it better that I could have! Using fear and the backs of the environmentally conscious is just a matter of convenience. Remember the 'hole' in the ozone layer?

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:35 PM

Nah, too easy. Not gonna touch it.

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#86
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:38 PM

You have valid reasons, not to put sources on the table. One, you did not mention was a minor annoyance to me over the years. That is the "miraculous disappearance" of links you are referring to as supporting material. It happened to me time and again, when I presented facts or studies inconvenient to the AGW crowd.

On this very thread in #35, I reported on tree ring studies, reaching back 2000 years, showing roman, medieval warm periods, small ice age and an overall slight cooling:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study/Index.html.

That is where I found it, there is where I checked it before submitting it. By morning it was pointing to a general home page, by the evening (most likely the webmaster) flagged it as invalid, as it was a nonsense duplicate pointer. It took me an annoyed minute to find a pages long list of copies, like this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html

What simple minded true believers do not grasp (among others), that interesting stuff goes viral on the internet. And from that point on, it is immortal. A misaligned pointer does not erase anything. But it speaks volumes about mindsets, and about unwillingness to open debate.

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#89
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:28 PM

Been there done that and more.

On another site I frequent in threads like these I have been given "inappropriate language" warnings from moderators despite the fact they could not give reference to one single word that fit let alone broke any forum rules.

I have been banned for week long periods for "provoking other members" with valid links to agencies like NASA and other well known international weather, atmospheric, and space monitoring organizations web sites.

I have had some to all of my posts disappear or get heavily edited in threads for being "off topic" and complete threads disappear or get locked as well.

Now I am banned again for a week for breaking the "Don't discuss the moderators" rule that does not exist in the rule section of that forum. The thing is I didn't discuss the moderators rather I commented on the moderators of this site and another I frequent as being better than many other forums moderation teams.

You would think that all of this would annoy me more but being much of these issues come up or happen days after I have posted and many others have commented, quoted, or expanded on what I have said plus as according to the view counters it has been seen by many others I just don't think that it makes me look like the bad person!

Personally one of my favorites is when my posts get edited or disappear a day or more after one or more people have quoted me and then a moderator leaves a note saying what I said was off topic or inappropriate despite obvious quoted proof that it wasn't being a few posts away from mine!

Unfortunately now in that forum topics such as this have been banned specifically since all they do is make certain moderators look like highly biased fools. I may not win but given the playing field I come out quite far from looking like the biggest looser out there!

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#92
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 2:38 AM

I like to drive the AGW crowd nuts by using simple math and their own "data" against them. It gets the rest of the readership thinking. Math doesn't lie. It is what it is. So, when I can FINALLY pin them down about something they believe... So, they CLAIM that co2 is 8% of "global warming," and there seems to be universal agreement that nature puts out 97% of the co2 and mankind 3% (ants put out twice as much co2 as humans). So, there's two numbers I can work with. 0.08 x 0.03 = 0.0024. Convert to percentile.... So (this is rich), one of those gooberheads comes back with it's MAN'S CO2 that is 8% of global warming. That's NOT what the learned professors at AGW Central claim, but, okay, lets do the math anyway.... shoot, now we have the total "global warming" (from co2 alone) at 240%. I guess poor old insignificant water vapor (85% to 95% of the greenhouse phenomenon) just got beat out by the mighty 380 ppm CO2!

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#94
In reply to #92

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 7:14 AM

Well, I am doing my part to reduce my carbon footprint by spreading fire ant poison in my yard.

Just wanted you to know. :)

Where are my carbon credits?

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#93

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 5:44 AM

http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how-to-talk-to-a-sceptic/

it doesn't suit people to change their lifestyles, people don't like change, give contradictory explanations and they don't have to, that's ok it's not real, just sit back and watch.

It's already too late; how much latent heat has gone into melting all that ice? As engineers, you understand positive feedback and can probably predict what will happen next.

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#114

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/31/2012 9:11 PM

Glad I missed this one.

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#115
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/31/2012 9:27 PM

You have not missed anything. The topic just repeats itself with the same non-conclusion.

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#116
In reply to #115

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/31/2012 9:37 PM

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Fact is, we may never know.

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#117
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/01/2012 2:56 PM

Do you have any statistics to back up that claim of facts?

RedFred seems to be swinging for the fences right to the very end for the believers team but I for one have long since left the field and took up a seat by the beer truck.

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#118
In reply to #117

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/01/2012 3:05 PM

Nope! I deal purely in speculation.

I'll leave all the "fact finding" to the Flat Earthers here who insist that they know it all already, and why would anybody try to convince them otherwise.

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#122

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/16/2012 9:53 AM

Nothing happens in terms of atmoshperic balance overnight. What we are worried about is glacial meltdown and the snowcap meltdown.

The atmosphere only has to increase 2-3 global average for the meltdown to occur. This has been happening at 10 times the rate it traditional has over the past millions of years. CO2 levels 3 times higher than ever recorded have happened in the last 30 years, not the thousand years it normally took in the past.

To balance that back out by clouds cooling things down will take the traditional amount of time. This was usually done by the cooling process going past the optimum level of average global atmospheric temperature by diving into an ice age.

There is no 'accelerator' now in effect to speed up the balancing effect.

The big question is that if CO2 levels continue to rise, the rebound effect will take longer to cool things down which will allow the coming ice age glaciers to move down past Atlanta at which point they will become irreversible because the percentage of reflected sunlight off their surface will reduce the amount of heat captured by the remaining land massed and they will continue to the equator where they will meet and remains forever until the heat from the center of the earth finally erupts through to melt them again.

By that time there will only be bacteria and perma-frost plants left to re-populate the earth and this mankind experiment we are all part of will be over with.

Vegetation will come back because a lot of seeds remain viable even though frozen for long periods of time.

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#123
In reply to #122

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

08/16/2012 11:36 AM

Good day 129CBRider,

"...the meltdown to occur. This has been happening at 10 times the rate it traditional has over the past millions of years. CO2 levels 3 times higher than ever recorded have happened in the last 30 years, not the thousand years it normally took in the past."

Just a question, where is the data for the millions of years? There isn't even any data for a thousand years let alone millions. The models used for plotting and evaulating past and future changes are flawed because develope/base them with preconceived ideas of what they think is or has happened. It is extremely hard to extrapolate data and get good results.

Mankind certainly has some effect on our close environment; ground, lakes, rivers, etc., but in terms of the Universe in which we reside, our ability to impact the Laws of Nature is very minimal. It was designed and created to handle the inhabitants that is was created for.

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