At the zenith of the so-called Star Wars era - the Strategic Defense Initiative, or SDI - the DoD and everyone else were so enamored with all the high-tech wizardry that most, if not all, completely lost sight of the ground. That is, until a reporter asked a Soviet diplomat what he thought of President Reagan's very ambitious Star Wars project: "Quite honestly, we're not particularly worried about anything your nation plans to place in orbit now or in the future. Certainly nothing five or ten tons of counter-orbiting sand couldn't solve in a few hours."
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"Did you get my e-mail?" - "The biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place" - George Bernard Shaw, 1856
As non-intuitive
as it may sound; if there is any battle space where the economics favor the
underdog, space is it. Any nation capable of launching significant payload
to a highly elliptical equatorial orbit has the capability to deny all of space
to everyone. It requires no ability to intercept; only the ability to lift
and disperse specialized payload. Although the latitudinal location of current
launch facilities greatly impede our potential adversaries capability to launch
directly to equatorial orbit; it is probable that those potential adversaries
have both the knowledge base and technical capability to make such attacks using
other than direct assent orbital attack.
I also
understand, that in the case of the GPS constellations, any launch site at
or below 55 degrees would allow for direct assent orbital attack. How rapidly
the GPS constellation could be degraded or taken down is a matter of
conjecture; but I am confident it would be a high value target for our
adversaries in scaled conflict.
Space based
navigation and 3CI is a wonderful thing in a peaceful world; but it all goes
away quite quickly when engaging a space savvy enemy. It would be bad enough to
lose the force multiplication of space system dependent tactical weapons. It
would be catastrophic if it shut down our entire logistical base; and if things
go like I see them trending, in ten years or so, our entire transportation
system will be space system dependent. How many nations will have rudimentary
space capability in ten years? How about right now?
I know the folks
calling the shots are neither ignorant nor intentionally careless; but I am not
so sure they are not so focused on what is in their hands that they fail to see
what is in their path.
Is it possible that our experts are
in this thing for the money; and our enemy's experts are in this thing to win?
Gavilan
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"The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." -- Michelangelo