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What recession?

Posted March 20, 2008 5:30 PM by mavella

Two pieces of news crossed my desk this morning, showing there's clearly no recession in China and Taiwan, especially when it comes to electronics.

Reuters reported Michael Dell, speaking at a 10 year celebration of Dell operating in China, said "Dell will purchase $70 billion of computer-related supplies and equipment from China," referring to total purchases over the 2007-2009 period.

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#1

Re: What recession?

03/21/2008 2:38 PM

Aside from whether or not China has a recession, can anybody show me the numbers that we, the USA, are in an actual recession?

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: What recession?

03/22/2008 10:02 PM

23 sounds like a good number. A good friend of mine was just laid off from Intel after 23 years of employment with them. I recommended that he move to San Jose and go to work for AMD... Get even with the B*******. Of course AMD is hurting too.

I volunteer with a youth symphony. In one of our annual fund raising events, profit this year was 75% of last years profit. People don't have the money to spend.

In the electronics industry read EE Times or Electronic News. Headlines like "ABC Inc. closes plant in Podunk Falicornia. 1500 employees laid off." are common place.

If Bush thinks we are NOT in a recession, he had best get his head out of his rectal orifice and open his eyes.

Sincerely

A pissed off Bill

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: What recession?

03/22/2008 11:58 PM

I really do empathise with your plight. I have been left out in the cold on several occasions by unexpected (at least by me) cutbacks. When I look back I can see that there were clues I was either not paying attention to or some other reason. I have worked in and around the construction industry numerous times and have had to learn the sad facts of market saturation.

The hi-tech (particularly electronics ind.) portion of our economy has been on an extreme high far longer than anticipated. There just had to come a day of reckoning. The rest of the world was bound to catch up, particularly India and China.

There are some reasons on the part of the corporations also. Out-sourcing is (in my oppinion) one of the major culprits. The bean counters never think what's going to be the best for their employees, employees families, the local infrastructure, the national infrastructure, ad infinitum. All they are concerned about is the near-term bottom line. That's what their investors are looking at.

What we are experiencing from my point of view (and I'm not an economist) is a slowdown after a period of rapid expansion. The reason I asked about the numbers is because I really want to know. I have heard a lot of words thrown around on both sides of the issue but no good numbers.

I thoroughly despise scare tactics no matter where they come from. A great man once said, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself."

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: What recession?

03/23/2008 2:02 PM

I believe the "great man" you refer to was Franklin Roosevelt at the outbreak of WWII.

Bill Gates wants the government to issue thousands more "green cards" to allow Mexican nationals to work in the US. I think this is ridiculous when we have so many Americans without jobs.

In some ways I agree that the bottom line for corporations is to maximize the return for their stock holders... but on receipt of their MBA's etc. I am sure that they extract the social morals from their bodies. I shouldn't talk too loud about this though, because my wife is working on her MBA. The rich get richer and the poor (and middle class) get poorer.

My friend from Intel got a partial retirement from them. His biggest problem is that his son has severe medical problems. He can keep his Intel health insurance, but the premiums are 1/2 to 2/3 of his retirement pay, and other health insurers will not touch him. The job market in Electronics here is such that he will be damn lucky to get any job in that field, and last I heard, he was trying to get a job driving a school bus. It isn't much, but it is better than no income at all. I wish I could help him but I can't.

Bill

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#5
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Re: What recession?

03/23/2008 2:27 PM

Sounds like they did a cost/benefit analysis before they let him go, informed by the insurance costs. Once again the bottom line rules. It's probably in his best interest to hang on to the insurance and get that bus driving job to help cover other expenses.

I know how expensive health-care can be. My wife has MS and if it wasn't for medicare we could not survive it financially.

As to Bill Gates; I think a number of rich folk get blinders on. He sees the poor of other countries as more important than those around him.

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#6

Re: What recession?

03/24/2008 11:07 AM

I am pretty sure that a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. by the numbers technically we aren't in one but the "figures lie and liars figure." we inflate and borrow from tomorrow to pay for today so it is hard to say. For example the DOW might only be down 10-15% nominally but if you measure it in Gold, Silver or even Oil it is down alot more than that. Actually in terms of gold it is down close to 70% from 4 5-6 years ago.

we probably are in one but won't know if we are in one now until we look back 6 months from now.

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: What recession?

03/24/2008 1:07 PM

OK,

That's a pretty good answer. The way all the markets are manipulated it's hard to tell what's really going on. You're right, time will tell but it might take more than 6 months. We're in an election cycle so the lying is ramped up considerably.

Instead of crying about what the guys and gals in the suits are doing, however, I think each one of us should be looking to our own affairs first. Government in this day is a land of smoke and mirrors. In my opinion, wisdom says, if at all possible, get out of debt or reduce it as much as possible. Do what you can to help your neighbor.

It has been said that all politics is local and that starts right down home.

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#8
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Re: What recession?

03/24/2008 1:35 PM

I agree with you on people sorting out their problems and the things they can take care of, like getting out of debt and not living beyond their means.

The only 2 things that really get to me that are atleast somewhat out of my control are inflation and taxes.

IMO, a recession isn't entirely a bad thing, it is like waking up with a hangover after drinking the night before, if you fight off the hangover with more drinking it is just giong to hurt more later. I just hope the big politicians don't do too much and turn the recession into a depression.

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#9
In reply to #6

Re: What recession?

03/29/2008 7:03 PM

I agree with Skeptical guy, a recession is "two full quarters of negative growth or decline." I can see it here in town, there are just NO CALLS out of the hall for electricians (with the occassional convention center call(s) ). No new work. There is "plenty on the way" but no one (read developers) wants to continue with construction until there is "more money available." There have been guys sitting on the book for about five months (the longest) to a couple of weeks (the most recent layoffs). I was out of work for 6 months once because work was so slow, sure learned to live on a budget then. Times will, hopefully, get better. DOn't trust the fed to be too helpfull.

I am kind of wondering if they are allowing this to play out to push for the North American Union (MexAmeriCanada) that I have heard about. That and the bringing about of new currency, the "Amero". Hope not but then again who knows?

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