Modeling Tomorrow

Unfortunatley hindsight is not 20/20 and analysis is flawed do the overwelming amount of complex data and historical information needed to give every one a simple solution. We in the United States like to sum things up to a single sound bite or at most a small summation and it just is not possible in this situation. Also I don't think that any attempt to do so could be accurate.

This meltdown should and probably will become a complete a complete collegic degree in order to scratch the surface of what happened.

The one area I remember and should not have been done was to allow all US Banks to become or merge thier banks (Citibank & Citigroup) to share investment banking. This was a major flaw in the 1930's so the banking law was changed in order to prevent banks from investing in highrisk funds. Then in the 1980's I remember that politicos and financial guru's changed those rules, saying that the stock market no longer effects the economy the way it did in the 1930's and other watchdog instituions like the SEC would not allow banks to make the same stupid mistaskes they did pre-1930.

Well so much for hindsight and learning our lessons.

The models are bunk

I don't think the models are bad, I think it is that people put too much faith in it. People and the decisions they make are almost always the root cause, and it is funny how those who make those decisions also tend to be skilled responsibility deflectors.

To me it is similar to when I run an FEA on a design. In that simulation it all worked out but that still doesn't mean there will be no field failures. There always has to be assumptions made otherwise the model/simulation would be overwhelmed with variables.

I think everything has been planned to work out well from the start either the models were corrupted overnight or substituted to make place for other models that were thought to provide a faster reliable and more efficient solutions for the present and the future in the shortest possible time