A Billion Here a Billion There, It Adds Up

I wonder how the system could tell that it was being emissions-tested.
Could there be a simple on/off switch for an emissions control system?
VW is going to investigate? Investigate what--don't they know what they themselves did?

my guess would be the emissions test use can communication(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAN_bus) to talk to the car so the car would "know" it was being tested and the firmware in the car would do what VW had programmed it to do from the factory. I have to think this fraud goes all the way to the top. I highly doubt the brass was unaware of what was going on. I also think they selected an outside investigation to reduce the appearance of inner bias, they lost about17 billion in USD value to their companies stockholders( I'm sure employees with options are thrilled). all sales in the US are crippled for a while, the EPA could also fine them in the billions.....and then there's the class action lawsuits from those that shelled out for a "clean diesel" so even though some might think VW is innocent and the party that's wrong here is the negligent US for not writing their laws correctly. VW is paying dearly for this deception and fraud. their reputation is taking a body blow on this.

I'm also wondering what they did with the European market Diesel cars! Probably the same maybe?

My Mitsubishi has a VW Diesel engine, so I wonder if mine is also affected, though Mitsubishi claims that they "set up" the engine parameters for the motor and I did notice a marked difference in "pull away" power when starting from a stop....I had exactly the same engine in my VW Touran....so hopefully mine is not "affected"!

A possible method is to measure the throttle position vs engine speed. On test (no load) the throttle opening will be smaller for a given rpm.

Just another "feature" in our "drive by wire" cars these days. When everything is computer controlled, well, everything is computer controlled¿

a 20% haircut has the CEO in deep waterhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/vw-stock-crashes-admitting-rigged-us-emission-tests-081423265.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VOW:GR

Just makes it a good time to buy VW stock. Then exercise a little patience. All the Warren Buffets are going to cause a nifty rebound taking advantage of all the panicked, jittery masses.

it would be early to buy right now

You would have thought VW was killing people with switches or something by the tone of the hyperbole.

I really don't think the V-dub stock will drop much lower, if at all. But, I am by no means a financial expert so all these forward looking statements are caveated . . . .

they'll absorb the cost to repair the system....that's unknown @ this moment. the EPA could fine up to 18 billion.......but I expect quite a bit less.their sales wont recover until all the new cars are running properly and are in emission compliance. the class action is a wildcard. when the class action terms are within sight investors will step in

And many lawyers will make obscene amounts of money off the top of the settlement.

Buy now, wait for the stock to recover, then sell before the next scandal sends it down, and then buy again right after the scandal?

That's ... actually pretty good advice, if you've got a good feel for when the next stock-punishing scandal will be.

Did Microsoft do their software cheater algorithm?

Naw, prolly not. It needed to be reliable and work every time.

You realize that if they HAD gotten Microsoft to do it, they would have had a ready made excuse?!?!

"Your honor, they insisted we call it Bluetech because of some obscure blue screen reference....".

Here is some background information on how they got caught...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-19/volkswagen-emissions-cheating-found-by-curious-clean-air-group

This also begs the question of what other "high tech" tests are being gamed by the various corporations who are subject to government testing?

I find it incredible that 'cheating' the system could go on unnoticed by so many for so long - and then only be revealed by an 'expert' investigation.

It is implied that responsibility for this goes to the top. Well it does. But not just VW. The whole compliance regime is involved - labs - garages - Govt departments - and drivers - and even other engine makers. By silence, they are all complicit in the deception.

I am not defending VW but any air quality test has to be carried out in controlled conditions, otherwise the results are meaningless. Thus strict test protocols are needed. Thus manufacturers can take steps to ensue that their products pass the test.

If this is the VW case, and if their engines can be run to pass the test, then fail in all other operating conditions, then it reflects in serious shortcomings in the test protocol.

But that is assuming that VW have found a way for the 'computer' to run the engine to pass the test - then praise to them. It is not their fault that drivers have habits on the open road that would cause a test failure.

If however the VW 'computer' falsified operating conditions and gave readings to achieve a pass by misleading the tester (everybody in fact), then that is a different matter.

I don't think it's a case of fiddling the test results. The readings are genuine, but the computer enables the kit to reduce emissions on test, but disables it for normal driving. Maybe that gives better economy, which would clearly be a sales plus, at the cost of higher emissions, but I read somewhere emission reduction needs injection of urea, and the container needs regular top-ups, which isn't popular with drivers.

Horace,

Do you really believe that the testing facilities are complicit?? Really??

You've got Bubba with his 8 hour emissions tester certificate and a computer that does everything for them. They barely know how to operate the emission testing machine!

The individual testing stations are rarely defrauding the testing system anymore. They used to be able to but with the automated systems it's difficult for them to B.S. that system.

Original Macgyver

I have no wish to create an impression that testing facilities are complicit in this, in the sense that they have contrived to operate or take part in a 'system' of testing that is not open and honest.

It is more a case of being involved in, or on-lookers to practices, that if suspected of being dubious, are kept quiet - where an awareness of test results that differ from what seems normal just about everywhere else. Thus being so close to the action and thus complicit in the sense of silence on a subject that would almost be impossible to deny knowledge of.

I find it almost impossible to believe that the extent and depth and the number of test facilities and compliance authorities and the people involved knew nothing of this - and said nothing - that is the complicit bit.

If VW have devised a method of engine management that enables a bona-fide test to be passed then - to the extent that they have constantly and extensively fooled all the test authorities - then that is a mark of the lack of skill and competence of the test authorities - where if they claim competency - they themselves are complicit in what will soon appear to be a cover -up.

The fall-out of the on-going enquiries will hit a lot of people - mark my words.

I agree that the fallout will be massive. VW just shot themselves in the foot. And the leg. And the arm. When will they be trusted again????

I do not believe that the test facilities are/were in any way complicit in this scheme.

Their job is to insert a standard (for all new vehicles) plug into a standard socket and essentially push the start button.

Their job is not to evaluate the test procedure, nor the results or even the vehicle.

Their obligation is simply to plug the device in, run the test and test the fuel system cap. The vehicle either passes or it fails and this is what is reported.

There was no reason to expect that the test was rigged, since the vehicles had been touted as clean burning and there was no prior standard by which to judge the emissions of this "new" engine.

The blame for this entire deception lies squarely at VW's feet.

It was only after independent, other than standard, tests were run that suspicions were aroused.

Still, VW denied it for a year. That it took so long to be found out should surprise no one.

Lyn,

You're correct there. Back in the 80's and 90's when smog testing was becoming commonplace, it was so easy to falsify the testing results.

I've seen mechanics connect their compressed air into the air pump to skew results!

I've seen mechanics use one car to perform the test and use the I.D. of the other car that couldn't pass smog!

A fly by night mechanic with a shop will probably scam the tests ( they can make a lot of CASH!) but the smog kiosk stations don't really have the facilities to "hide" their wrong doing!

Yes Lyn. I agree test facilities are/were probably not rigged - if they were then far too many people would have been involved considering the number of engines and tests carried out - extending now to embrace computer engineers and code writers (they must have known what was going on) - which is hardly conducive to keeping it secret.

But at the same time, if accepting the fact that the test was not rigged, then VW have demonstrated that they have produced engines that are capable of (always ?) passing the test. The fact that the engine can only do so in some favourable contrived conditions that requires a computer to control the parameters (and having done so) is proof of VW engine management skill.

So what is wrong with that? - where in this highly competitive car market - why should VW admit or advertise their trade secrets. It is analogous to a professional foul in the sporting fraternity - it wins matches - and the losers don't like it.

If with hindsight, something arises (VW caught cheating) to cause the testing fraternity to cry foul, then that is the fault of the test protocol - and if not directly to blame, all parties to the compliance regime will be held accountable for it.

Interesting times.

I disagree.

The problem with your argument is that VW used it's engine management skills to defraud the US government and its customers, by only making the engine run clean when it was connected to a test machine at a test facility.

In essence, the engine management system knew when to "run lean" and sacrifice other advertised qualities only to pass the test.

This reminds me of the days of carburated engines like OM said, when the mechanic adjusted the mixture screws and you passed the test and went back after the test and he readjusted the engine to run well.

Hello Lyn

t looks as though we agree to disagree on this. It will be interesting to see how things develop.

VW have proved beyond doubt that their engines can be run in such a way that they pass the test. That is all that is required. Albeit that they seem to have 'fooled' the whole testing fraternity - amongst which will be many 'experts' held to account when the enquiries get under way..

The 'experts' in the regulatory system are not not going to take kindly to this, especially as it appears to have happened (and persisted) under their noses without their knowledge for such a long time.

They will all try to find someone to blame, which at the moment is VW, but now it is public knowledge, and VW in their defence, seeking to mitigate their actions, will no doubt open their books to the inspectors, from which it will become obvious who know what was going on from the outset - and will be accused of complicity in perpetrating the fraud.

Even car drivers will find themselves accused if it can be proved they must have known their car was polluting the air. Not to an extent they will be criminalised, but certainly in the UK to be obliged to pay more car tax being put in a higher tax bracket for higher emissions.

Personally, I am glad I am not involved in any way - but for those that are - their journey through life from now on is going to get a bit bumpy.

But, you are involved, if you breathe.

The intent of the test, and the regulations, is to ensure that the engines run clean all the time, not just during the test.

To change the subject a little, do we know the situation regarding heavy lorries? In Europe, practically 100% are diesel. Is it same in US? Cummins must put their big diesels somewhere . Are they supposed to meet the same standards and pass same tests as cars?

Of course there are more cars than HGVs on the road, but my guess is (in Europe anyway) total emissions are comparable.

Same here. THe standards are vastly different, depending on the weight of the truck/lorry.

Remember, here in the USA most laws are heavily influenced by lobbyists and lawyers who are paid by the industry affected by the regulations/laws.

In other words, they are never as stringent as they should be, and are sometimes outright written to favor the industry. (Big oil and genetically modified plants [Monsanto] are good examples)

Couple that with the sad fact that special interest groups give BILLIONS of dollars every election cycle to politicians to buy influence when they vote.

you can't see the forest through the trees on this one. this is a mega story of intentional fraud. VW will lose billions and be in court for years, their CEO is certainly toast.their brand my never recover and you're praising them

That's probably right, but I think Horace40 has a point in #29 that VW will try to muddy the waters by saying the regulators knew what was going on, or should have known or suspected, or should have arranged on-road tests much sooner than they did. Not that any of that absolves VW.

I call bullshit on the excuse about the regulators knowimg about it. In no way does that absolve Volkswagen from what they did. They maliciously and purposely did that to increase sales and profits. They deceived the American government and the American public.

it isn't just here, this is a worldwide scandal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-emissions-investigations-should-widen-to-entire-auto-industry-officials-say-1442915079

volkswagen Emissions Investigations Should Widen to Entire Auto Industry, Officials Say

You're right, I forgot it was world wide!

VW really screwed the pooch on this one.

I have a feeling all will be forgiven by the American Commander in Chief Cheat and give VW billions of dollars to "clean" up their act. I couldn't resist!

https://youtu.be/2nu_swD4hEw?list=TLqVFd3W_Wb40yNDA5MjAxNQ

Well yes, I said it doesn't absolve VW. But I wouldn't mind betting the regulators feel embarrassed by it and will be a lot more careful in future.

My bet is that the regulators will all claim innocence and point fingers in any direction they can that will make them look like dedicated public servants.

I blame the politicians who essentially are more interested in financing their next election than doing their job for the people who voted for them.

You're such a cynic Lyn, but I'm sure you're dead right .

....They deceived the American government and the American public...

Yes, the public in America certainly - and in every other country it seems - but it remains to be seen whether VW have deceived Governments.

Governments will cry foul, but it is only going to take one whistle-blower somewhere in the World to produce evidence that action was not taken by regulators in response to knowledge that test protocols were being 'fiddled' and all parties to testing involved in the compliance infrastructure will come under suspicion and the buck passing blame culture will bring the compliance system to it's knees under the weight of emerging evidence - and that will identify those responsible.

....but not until a lot of money has been spent....

"...it is only going to take one whistle-blower somewhere in the World..."

You're quite optimistic.

With that much money at stake one whistle blower may be discredited as a disgruntled employee or worse. Just look at how the whistle blowers at VA were treated.

To JBTardis.

Yes! you are probably right!

But at the same time, the difference here is there are so many actual victims who will immediately lose money and eager for answers and redress, and so many potential culprits, that only one whistle-blower will be needed to trigger a chain reaction - and once started (anonymously possibly) - Boom!

On the other hand, it might be a damp squib.

I agree with you. Unfortunately, it may hinge on how motivated the media is in pursuing it. If they keep the story alive, then pressure will increase and something useful may be done....unless the evidence starts to point to one of the media's favorite politicians, organizations, or issues. I say unfortunately, not because I think the media won't keep up the story, but specifically because whether action happens is so dependent on how much media coverage an infraction gets.

In this case, what VW did can be claimed to adversely affect the climate/environment (regardless of whether it does or not) and possibly without dragging one of their favorite politicians into it and thus the media will most likely keep this alive.

Again, but the information we don't know is how the cars performed from an emissions point of view when they were not being 'tested'. We don't have that information. Everyone is totally freaking out about this and we don't know 'how bad' it is. We all need to wait to find out how much damage those evil people at VW caused.

That's the problem, we don't know, but someone does (and did) and as information becomes available, we are likely to find out who is/was responsible.

The black smoke in your pic is impressive. But in terms of atmospheric air quality it is about 99% pure air.

You are partly right Fredski - I must admit to having some admiration for VW ingenuity - but only in the scenario of the fiction of a 'Cops and Robber' thriller.

On the face of it, VW have pulled a fast one on everybody, particularly the Regulators who will be most unhappy (p*ss*d off) when they get hit by the fall-out (WTSHTF) - as will soon happen now VW have been caught.

Whether VW can continue to outwit the 'cops' remains to be seen.

Stay tuned!

It's not just a fast one on the Regulators. What about the car owners?

I would imagine many of those owners purchased their vehicles in good faith that the car met emission regulations and thus they were doing their part to help keep the environment clean. They've been duped.

Also, how much of a hit are the owners of the non-compliant vehicles going to take on the resale value of their car?

on local news here there are owners of these cars demanding VW buy them back. many of these folks are the "treehugger type" and they feel like victims and burden guilt for the 40X polluting they've been doing while the entire time they thought they were doing the right thing by driving a CLEAN diesel

Yes JBTardis. Car owners will take a hit but as victims, clearly able to demonstrate ignorant of the facts, might be able to seek compensation and redress. And even if not, then register a protest by not buying VW's again.

The compliance enforcement authorities, on the other hand will find it extremely difficult to demonstrate ignorance of the facts (it is their job to know) in which respect they might not be able to seek redress, and worse, might find themselves held liable alongside VW.

From the link in Rixter's post 13 (italics & bold mine):

VW engineers continued to suggest technical reasons for the test results. None of the explanations satisfied regulators, who indicated the models wouldn't be certified.

"Only then did VW admit it had designed and installed a defeat device in these vehicles in the form of a sophisticated software algorithm that detected when a vehicle was undergoing emissions testing,"

To Kilowatt0

This has not just happened. The Regulators don't make accusations without evidence - which must have taken a long time to collect - so they must have been aware of the problem long ago - but kept quiet. it is only in the last few days that it has become public knowledge.

It is not meant to be a pun, but the lawyers are going to get a lot of mileage out of this.

one less CEO now http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/23/martin-winterkorn-resigns-as-volkswagen-ceo.html

It's beyond my comprehension that a company as big as VW could commit such a criminal act and think they could get away with it. It was only a matter of time before someone found out. This was not an accident. It was a deliberate criminal act.