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Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/05/2015 8:45 AM

for those of you that buy gas (everyone)you have have more bucks laying around(thank you fracking)remember oil over $100 a barrel? heres today

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#101

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/17/2015 11:18 AM

The many oil price excursions to the bottom in past times.
Look at the OPEC oversupply scenario of Nov 1985 - July 1986.

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#102
In reply to #101

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/17/2015 1:16 PM

I've been at the investing in the stock market game for over 20 years. I just wish the direction of price could be explained on a single chart!

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#103
In reply to #102

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/17/2015 8:18 PM

Float your own entity.

Somehow avoid the insider trading tag.

At least that way you would be able to explain some of the 'blips' on the graph and maybe (I didn't say this) contrive a few just to keep those monitoring your graph something to puzzle about. Now ... where did I put that film script again?!

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#104
In reply to #102

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/18/2015 11:57 AM

Go to : Seeking Alpha, this weeks' article on the Energy sector, by Chuck Carnevale. Highly regarded as some of the best stuff out there….

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#105

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/18/2015 12:07 PM

The mental midgets just elected to Congress (after purchase by big business) are so well paid by big oil that they are going ahead and fighting for Keystone XL when the bottom has dropped out of oil.

Who are they helping? You? Me? We only pay them their salaries. Their owners pay them the real money.

Republicans push Keystone bill, White House threatens ...

"The House is set to pass legislation this week expediting the Keystone XL pipeline; the Senate is making it the first order of business as well."

Republicans push Keystone XL bill with plan to skirt any veto

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#107
In reply to #105

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 5:59 PM

What were the arguments FOR the pipeline again?

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#108
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Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 6:36 PM

Let's look. The pipeline may employ 4,000 people for 2-4 years.

After that 50 permanent jobs are promised.

Refineries along the Gulf Coast are expanding, but not to accommodate Keystone which is still only a gleam in big oil's/lobbyist's/lawyer's/banker's/politician's and connected construction company's eyes.

As you can see by this map (provided by Fredski) of EXISTING pipelines, Keystone isn't really even necessary.

Lets put it in Alaska, they need more "progress".

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#109
In reply to #108

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 7:13 PM

It would be erroneous to believe that just because of all the red and blue lines that there are enough pipelines to render the Keystone mute.

The Keystone would complete a missing link for a form of crude not able to use existing pipelines.

All crude is not the same and you can't (to the best of my knowledge) pump one type of crude one day and a different the next in the same line.

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#110
In reply to #109

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 7:17 PM

I posted that map to illustrate just how common these things are. its all BS politics its just the way business gets bogged down until enough people get their palms greased

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#112
In reply to #109

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 7:38 PM

Well, yes, you can run different grades/types of liquids in the same pipeline.

It's not as simple as turning off one tap and opening another but, it is common enough.

Batching involves pumping one fluid, then isolatingflushing, and running other fluids.

This is a hot button issue and we are constantly bombarded with partisan propaganda from BOTH sides.

This unneeded pipeline has nothing to do with the falling price of oil.

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#113
In reply to #109

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 7:42 PM

To say that the same pipe cannot carry different fluids maybe more based on the complexity of dealing with the different physical characteristics when changing from sticky viscus to lighter cut fluids etc.

But what if the liquids were a blend in the same pipe at the same time, where the support hardware was capable of pumping/transferring the mix, possibly with appropriate separation at the delivery points. Then it maybe possible to make more of existing pipe networks. (In mining, slurries are often not a uniform fluid, but rather a transport medium with added fine crushed ores with separation/recycling of the transport medium at the delivery point.)

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#114
In reply to #109

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 2:37 PM

"All crude is not the same and you can't (to the best of my knowledge) pump one type of crude one day and a different the next in the same line."

No, you can pump one kind of crude one HOUR and send another kind the next. You can do the same with refined oils/fuels.

They used to separate the different grades with 'pigs,' large spherical air bladders that would travel down the pipe between the batches (and since they were pressed firmly against the walls of the pipe, the rubber skins would 'squeal' all the way down the line). Nowadays, they've dispensed with the pigs unless it's absolutely nescessary, accepting that there will be a certain amount of 'intermix' at the border between batches. The intermix oil is sold to oil-burning plants and factories, who have furnaces that can handle a wide range of fuel types.

...

I was going to direct you to the Petroleum Planet exhibit at MSI in Chicago if you were in the area(1), but after a twelve-year run, that exhibit has been closed down to make way for the new Fabrication Lab exhibit.

Notes:

1) That's where I learned about the pigs, even used that info on the job, to design a system to clean a long air-transit pipe of plastic residue buildup.

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#116
In reply to #114

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 3:57 PM

I was thinking that the tar sands crude was kind of a special case where pipeline diameters were more critical or such. Possibly a viscosity issue?

I can't recall where I read the information, but the Canada crude was more particular when it comes to pipeline transport.

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#118
In reply to #116

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 5:27 PM

They call it "tar sands" crude for a reason.

It isn't pumped out of the ground, it's scooped up just like coal in an open pit mining operation.


Tar Sands


Think tar and sand. That equates to a thick, abrasive quasi-solid that must be diluted before it can ever be pumped.

That does away with the concept of a "gusher" in the classic sense, and leaves us with a gooey mess when the sand wears through the pipeline and drools out onto the ground.

I expect that we are destined to have the pipeline. I don't expect it will ever be of any benefit to 99% of the people across whose country it traverses.

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#119
In reply to #118

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 5:58 PM

I think the oil sand/tar sand is then sent through a retort facility to pyrolyze this to a usable fluid oil that is separated from the sand, along with a small fraction of condensate gas.

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#117
In reply to #108

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 4:54 PM

Ostensibly, the primary reason for the Keystone is to add United States export income (to the oil companies) that is taxed, but that is not being exported (or taxed) now. Perhaps Canada does not have the same port facilities available that Houston has, I don't know, but we are already in need of oil transportation infrastructure to replace capacity being sent by rail now. The existing pipelines (whether you believe it or not) do not have the capacity to support "the grande strategy".

One of the political reasons for supporting the Keystone is the need to supplant European oil supplies from Russia with oil from the Western Hemisphere, so that additional pressure on Russia will remove the present threat of Putin becoming an even more powerful despot, bent on expansionism, that is a real danger to stability in the world (not that it is stable now).

That is about all I can think of at the moment

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#106

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/18/2015 12:40 PM

Another unexpected result of the drop in gas prices, is the extra time to fill up. I had to complain to the local self serve outlet that with the lower cost per gallon, it was taking me some 50% longer to buy my $30 in fuel. And worse still, there is the extra weight of all that extra fluid sloshing around in the tank, so I am wondering about the safety issues and the lower MPG performance with the heavy penalty, not to forget the extra tire wear etc and the possibility of a speeding ticket when trying to make up the extra time spent at the bowser.

This oil price better find a bottom soon, or I'll have to buy jerry cans to take the surplus gas that wont fit in the tank. Life can get so complicated some days! I feel like I am missing the point.

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#115
In reply to #106

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 2:47 PM

*(opens his mouth to say something about stopping when the tank is full and saving the 'extra' money, then 'get's the joke' mid-comment, sighing and looking for Alan Fundt)*

"Some days people are out to punk you, some days you get punk'd by walking into someone else's punchline by accident. If I'm getting caught like this, falling for other peoples sarcasm, I'd BETTER be getting a laugh track, even if I can't hear it in-universe."

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#120
In reply to #115

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 7:11 PM

You are not the only one to get caught. The local government just paid an arm and leg for bike racks ... and did not apply to the next level up state government for a 50:50 subsidy. There is a surplus of funds for such street furniture.

Anyway, I thanked the Council for not applying for a subsidy because then they would have to worry about (a) what to do with the surplus money from the bottom line reduced cost, or (b) getting twice as many bike racks and then having the extra worry about where to install the double number of bike racks. See life can get complicated!

One of the stainless steel bike racks in the shape of a bike is shown at the bottom of the entrance ramp ... and it is 'travelling away' from the local government office, a point I also reminded the council as they get amalgamated in around 24 weeks when the state government reduces Perth's local government councils from 31 to 16. I can't understand why they did not return my best wishes?!

And this morning, the IRAN / SAUDI ARABIA double OPEC act are now talking of less than $25 per barrel for maybe even 8 years. Can someone tell me how we can convert those fracking rigs to water drilling setups?

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#121
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Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/20/2015 7:40 PM

I would be astounded if oil dipped below $25 and stayed there for 8 years, even adjusting for inflation.

Let's face it. Oil prices always see-saw all over the map. Yes, there are periods of relative stability, but the overall definition for oil is - volatility.

The volatility is primarily due to world events and right now we are in a session of pretty chaotic world events, both economically and politically destabilizing.

I am thinking what we are seeing is an over-correction due to the pendulum effect and that oil will stabilize somewhere higher than its current value. I would not be surprised to see its minimum go lower than we have now, but even after it stabilizes the first world incident will probably shatter that slippery calm and send it spiking again.

For some reason I can't post a picture from the web, so here it is for your inconvenience...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140722_oilprice1.jpg

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#122
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Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/21/2015 12:54 AM

As you say, it is a cyclic nature. By the way, your graph did make it to this forum, and much better representation that my text listing. Agree with your points. The Iran / Saudi $25 for 8 years was just a news item / comment this morning. Anyway, I am still rounding up old bath tubs to position on the truck for the bowser run. Not very practical mind you, but (tongue firmly in cheek), someone has to add some humour to what could be a serious shakeout (again).

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#123
In reply to #122

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/21/2015 8:00 AM

:-)

Well, we will survive it and it will also give something for all those 'doomers' carrying those poster signs something to do.

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#125
In reply to #122

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/21/2015 9:14 AM

"someone has to add some humour to what could be a serious shakeout (again)."

I thought *I* was the designated 'court jester' most of the time. Thanks tor sharing the load, those jinglebells on that floppy hat were beginning to drive me insane. (Well, more insane than usual.)

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#126
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Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/21/2015 10:15 AM

We with the elf-like floppy hats share a good answer/post ratio around 1 in 45 ... unlike some of our peers with the 1 in 15's etc .... ah ha the cost of a good laugh, often at our own expense. But every so often buried in our wit, is an absolute gem, a post pot of gold, so don't give up on the comic quota or I'll arrange for the guys in the white coats and the belt buckles on the back to pay us both a visit! Ding! Dong! Apparently someone wants me at the front door ....

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#111

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/19/2015 7:23 PM

down 2.69% today, the mid $40's seem to be hanging on for nowmaybe we'll see $1 gas again

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#124

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/21/2015 8:53 AM

Doesn't the following article from SUPPLY CHAIN 24/7 NEWS give you confidence
in Saudi Arabia to have such an influence in the price of oil.

Latest News on SC24/7

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

TRANSPORTATION - News
Saudi Arabia Muscles Its Way to Second Place in Agility's Emerging Markets Index
Saudi Arabia jumped to second place in this year's Agility Emerging Markets Index, ahead of established BRIC nations Brazil, Russia and India, as they struggled with continuing poor infrastructure, corruption and conflict.....more

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#127

Re: Will Oil Find a Bottom?

01/22/2015 2:32 PM

not yet....46 bucks sounds so low after years of seeing $100 a barrel

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