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The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

Posted April 19, 2011 9:09 AM

From Fast Company:

It would be a disaster economically, upsetting family budgets and making the transporting of goods potentially next to impossible. But according to a new survey by Deloitte, it could take something as extreme as $5-per-gallon of gas to persuade most U.S. citizens to abandon gas stations and SUVs and buy electric vehicles. Do we have to destroy this village in order to save it?For most of the last month, the national average gas price in the U.S. has nudged upwards every single day--it's now at around $3.83 per gallon.

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#1

Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/19/2011 10:18 AM

It's alread over £5 a US gallon in the UK which is about $8 at the moment!!!
Maybe you guys can see why we like our small economical cars.
You can imagine how fond we are of the government and bankers who got us in this sorry state.
Del

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#6
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Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/20/2011 5:24 AM

Knocked up 1000k yesterday. Diesel was around AU $1.55 / litre or US $6.02 per little gallon ( a lot more for an imperial gal). Not exactly a cheap exercise, but despite my involvement in electric traction I see no current way to achieve the same job with a Battery Electric Vehicle. Diesel Electric Hybrid, now that is another story.

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#2

Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/19/2011 11:24 AM

B.S. I think these people are smoking hope.

This is another example of groupthink gone amok.

As Dell stated, Europe has been dealing with prices well beyond $5 for a long, long time.

Let's look at the logic here. EVs account for far less than 1% of total auto sales.

The tipping point would be ≥50% of all sales as EVs. The article did say "most" US citizens, which implies better than 50% of potential buyers.

First, there isn't a manufacture in the world that could supply 5 to 6 million vehicles per year (current US sales are about 11 million vehicles annually); let alone enough batteries to supply them; let alone enough electricity on the grid to charge them!

Second, people are not going to be willing to pay $35,000 to $45,000 for a new vehicle when you can buy economical cars new for half that price or much less for used cars and still have $20,000 - $30,000 for gas.

Third, government rebates would vanish because there simply isn't enough tax revenue to support 5 million rebates at $5,000 - $10,000 a pop.

It's a long distance call between where these people are and the land of reality.

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#7
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Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/20/2011 9:39 AM

The high price of electric vehicles is not due to the expense of making them. It's due to profit. I could easily get along with an electric car that had a range of 80 miles, and I would buy it for $20K.

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#8
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Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/20/2011 9:51 AM

No, it is due to paying for NRE costs and the costs of batteries.

NRE is not profit, it is the up front cost investors put up to pay guys like us to design a product and get it ready for production.

Yes, prices will eventually come down, but there many issues to deal with first before that happens (batteries are one thing). Even when it does, prices are not likely to be much better than current costs for cars.

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#3

Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/19/2011 1:36 PM

I've been hoping that diesel would pick up in the US but still hardly any options. I say bring on the Euro Diesel Compacts!

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#5
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Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/19/2011 10:58 PM

Here is diesel pick up that is compact from Europe.

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#4

Re: The Electric Vehicle Acceptance Tipping Point: $5-A-Gallon Gas

04/19/2011 8:36 PM

It's not just the price of fuel which is the tipping point it's the practicality of EV's that will determine whether they're acceptable or not.

When you can only get 100-200 miles out of an EV then have to wait 1-12 hours to recharge in comparison to 300 to 400 miles out of a petrol driven car with a 5-10 minute turnaround to refuel. Then you'll see why EV's have a way to go.

I'd love to have a EV to do my daily commute but I'm an outer urban dweller and while a Leaf EV could get me to work, I'd have to push it home again. Yes I've looked at the Prius, but it only makes sense if they'd done it as a WVO diesel instead petrol.

Artificially making essential base products more expensive only compounds other issues in the economy as a whole. But then elite leftard academics never understand how economies actually work.

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