Request for additional Input on Super Solar Flares

A whole rash of babies born about 9 months later???

NYC blackout as precedent

milo

I would insert "two headed" before "babies". A solar flare is a radiation event.

No, the slooowwww, death is the best.

You are strangely awakened at 2am, you go outside, there is a menacing orange glow emanating from the north. It does not go away,.... soon,... everything glows orange, morning, noon and night. You start dreaming in orange. Your underpants turn orange. Then one day, all your beer is warm, and there's no ice. You roll a joint, and it lights all by itself. Then sleep eludes you, and your hair starts falling out. You don't even feel like texting anymore. Your girlfriend comes over because it's Tuesday, but, you remember her as a blond, (a real one, the carpet matched the drapes), but now..... she's....all.....ORANGE!

She eats you.

Cut to alien face, with sharp, crusty, brown, dripping teeth.

Who quips, "Yes, another planet....OURS!

Ooops, I can see I've fallen into a playpen, here, and an adult conversation is impossible. Guess I expected more from this site.

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, Kizmet. CR4 is like a buffet. Take what you like and leave the rest. With this thread, I don't think I'd take a doggie bag.

I think we all just assumed that an adult could google up his own info at sites like:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/flares.shtml

or maybe would go out and spend $600 on a real textbook like
"Solar Flare Magnetohydrodynamics" by Priest, or even "The Complete Idiots Guide to the Sun" by Pasachoff, instead of asking us to do his homework for him.

Phffffffft! That was a rude sound to you.

Being the writer gives you license to write it yourself your way, go on pull the trigger

You got it bad

Someone needs to call Bruce Willis....

Hello PWSlack

Yes indeedy, Bruce Willis is the man.

Kind Regards....

Let the record show that Sparkstation is an optimist.

milo

Very informative and insightful, but I think I'm going to have to keep my fictional solar flare somewhat less powerful that this, say somewhere between the Carrington flare and total anihilation. I need to maim society, bring it to its knees, but still leave some hope.

Hi Sparkstation et.al.

"Fish algae, all life on sunny side at flarestorm time = kaput."

As the particles are mostly energetic protons these will not penetrate deeply into water.

" on the shadowed side, life may carry on"

There is no shadowed side, the particle emission will last for some days.

So there is only one conclusion: these solar superstorms are extremely unlikely.

Else we would see this as periodic (?) mass extinction as by the big meteorite that did hit Earth 60Myears ago in Yucatan.

So when the next solar superstorm will burst we may have extreme problems: We do not know how many of the energetic primary particles reach earth. Protection is best by water (as moderating neutrons in reactors), next best by big magnetic fields.

Dipole field is good but you have to sit inside: not existing nor to build within hours.

As we do have information about influenza pandemics and estimates that measles at first occurrence did more havoc with the then existing human population (?5000years ago) may be there are some of these illnesses to be linked to a solar superstorm.

So it is much more likely that a severe illness will bring trouble and not a severe solar storm.

I expect -depending on severity- a more partial breakdown of technological achievements.

Any electricity is likely to fail in a storm as 1859.

So as you and others stated any technology that relies on electricity.

Cars and trucks likely to survive (nearer to equator more likely than nearer to the poles) but no fuel because stations need electricity.

People that know old technologies: blacksmiths, carpenters, ... may start new civilisation but without access to copper and tin.

There are some countries where survival without technology may be easy but these are plagued by snakes and mosquito's.

We tried to make iron and steel the primitive way but got the wrong iron ore and no information on silica or carbonate to add so no success.

I hope the next superstorm will not be this extreme: the SciAm articles says that there are expectations about any 500years one of this quality. If so then no very big problem else the books would be full of stories about the damages.

So only technology will be affected: power grids melting down but not completely, there are some parts that will act as fuses and thus protect the rest.

Computers and other equipment likely to survive if inside well shielded houses (reinforced concrete).

Some small generators surviving to operate gas stations.

How deep will subsequent depression be?

RHABE

Thanks you, this is just the kind of thinking I need. I might disagree with a couple of your points though:

• We wouldn't need to mine metal...it's all over the place, just not working. All we have to do is figure out how to reshape it.

• There have been many unexplained mass extinctions. In fact, a recent DNA study found that humanity had dwindles to just a handful of people as little as 10,000 years ago. Maybe disease, maybe who knows?

• As far as 'books full of stories' goes...in a preindustrialized society with few metals and no electricity, what damages would there be? Lights in the sky, now there's lots of legends about those. Remember, written knowledge has only been universal for a very short period of time.

So when the next solar superstorm will burst we may have extreme problems: We do not know how many of the energetic primary particles reach earth. Protection is best by water (as moderating neutrons in reactors), next best by big magnetic fields.

Any speculation of that antenna array named HAARP projecting a big magnetic field?

Hi,

magnetic shielding will work only on the slowest protons that are not dangerous and will not reach down to us as the magnetic field of Earth will divert these.

So any antenna will not work as there is simply not enough energy or current available.

Best protection may be first to move to near equator (+-30°) and if polar lights are still visible there then search for some deep caves or mines to protect you for some days.

Have some food and water ready, some light and battery operated radio, sleeping bag and anything you need for a week.

If you really want to prepare (there are many dangers to prepare against, this is only one!) build near the entrance of the cave a hut with no electricity but everything you need to survive for 6 months or so.

RHABE

"Sadly, there is no way of knowing when such a Solar Flarestorm is likely to occur - there is no warning."

Actually, we CAN get some warning on solar flarestorms, since the particles travel at less the the speed of light. Specifically, satellites such as SOHO (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOHO_spacecraft) can provide such warning. SOHO is not in the ideal position (it orbits Lagrangian point L1, but L2 would be better in terms of time difference between signals and particle arrival). Still an inadequate warning, of course, but better than none. Using presence of large sunspots as a predictor is one way to improve the odds.

I did a bit of research and seemed to come to the conclusion that light waves and geomagnetic energy traveled at the same speed. They don't? How much lag time are we talking about here?

Geomagnetic energy may well move at speed of light - I am certainly not an expert. But particles from a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) are slower; Scientific American's article quotes 2,380 kilometers/second for the 1859 event, and time of travel of 17.5 hours (vs. something around 8 minutes, if I recall, for sunlight to reach earth). If my mental picture is correct, a satellite in halo orbit around L3 [I earlier said L2; wrong choice - mea culpa] might be, say, 8 minutes from the sun, and ~ 15 minutes from earth. Unfortunately, it will be poorly placed to see telltale signs of CMEs. Maybe we need to put a few satellites into solar orbits at smaller distances (say, somewhere between Mercury and Venus distances) so that at least one is always observing the earthside view of the sun, and in communication position for earth, in order to take advantage of the velocity differentials.

Does seem like we need some kind of system to observe this phenomenon more closely. Just read a reference supplied by Epke:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/10jun newstorm.htm

(there's more info on this subject at another thread "Solar Super Flare Effects"). Anyway, it looks like we may not totally understand these flares and how the protons are pushed in our direction. Guess this particular event broke all the previous rules.

Since a solar flare does not usually dissipate that quickly, I would go so far as to say that the people living in the shadows will not escape. Life as we know it would cease to exist. If human life were to continue it would be sparse since living in a city would mean fighting off crowds for food.

Third world countries would be different because they are already used to scraping for food. They would probably become the survivors and inherit the earth.

Yep. Most people in the U.S. don't know how to turn on a stove, much less hunt their own food. This disaster would sure sort the men from the boys (PC: adults from children). Luck would play a role here too, for sure. Anyone in a major city is in for hell on earth. On an outlying farm, well maybe there's some hope.

Begin by reading the articles in Scientific American, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=timeline-the-1859-solar-superstorm and http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=bracing-for-a-solar-superstorm. Between the articles and the links / footnotes / references, you'll have a good start.

Thanks for this article. It just points out what I have been saying...solar flares are an unexplored hazard to earth life.

Kizmet, I wasn't even aware of the Carrington Flare until you spoke of it.

I suppose I should be at least peripherally aware of such events, if for no other reason that I designed and built a H-Alpha refractor specifically for viewing events in the hydrogen bandwidth of the visible spectrum

Just my luck to build a discipline specific scope to view something that won't happen for many years.

That being the case, I suspect you'll have plenty of time to find an answer that is both useful as well as entertaining. There is no urgency for an answer; we have entered a period of little or no sun spot activity that is destined to last a lomg time.

We did manage to find one "pimple" of a blemish today, a tiny dot that was barely noticeable and which generated nothing more than stiffled yawns.

Good luck

L.J.

Even though ice core tests indicate that the Carrington event was unusual, researchers haven't taken samples much further back than 500 years. As far as I know, no one has made a concerted effort to document a long-term electromagnetic pattern of major solar flares.

The solar eruptions tend to occur in 11 year cycles, the next anticipated in 2011-2012. And also keep in mind that Carrington (in 1859) was using primitive equipment to track and HAND DRAW his observations of solar activity on a daily basis. He managed to record a unique event, so surely you have equal opportunity. Good Luck.

Where are you located?

Have you seen the Auroras (there are two...Australis and Borealis)?

Unfortunately the sun has been very quiet of late and the prediction for solar maximum has been revised. This could be the 'silence before the storm'.

I'm in central California right now. I was in Montana a while back and caught a mild Borealis display or two. I'm just going to have to use my imagination to create the real thing. P.S. re the 'unfortunately' part of the message, I begin to wonder...

Addendum imaginari...........well now that's ok.....I'm forever revising my imagination ........it is like watching liquid fire when the Aurora dances. I hope you get a chance to see it in full splendour.

Personally, I've always enjoyed the ancestral views....they give a 'life' to the event.

The Algonkian nation here sees them as the shadows that men have lost. Maybe they're not that far off....................

Absolutely, I was just mentioning 'legends' in reply to another posting here. I wish I had time to track all the legends dealing with "skies of fire"...I'll bet I could find a lot of them, and it's only our best guess what they were witnessing.

I get to enjoy them often where I live. This fall, when the season starts, I'm going to try perfecting the taking of digital pictures of them.

Shot down? I thought you got some pretty good responses already! But that goes for this thread too...

I am tickled to death with this discussion. Guess we just had to weed out the juveniles.

Right you are! I couldn't have said it better myself. Those weedy types crop up everywhere these days.

Most of them don't know beans anyway..............

DUCK

Whoa, wait a minute, I'm a member of the Weed Lovin' Juvenile Solar Flare Guild,.. and I demand equal representation on this forum!

Pitch in, buddy. We were speaking of a juvenile attitude, not juvenile years. I'm assuming you can behave like an adult.

Yeah.....but then we'd all have to measure up to your weed lovin' juvenile standard........

In your research did you come across any data of a solar flair during the years of 1973 or 1974? It was some time around then. That my mother was standing next to our neighbors fence talking. I don't know what happened at that time. But in less then an half-hour, she burned the entire right side of her body, on the skin that was exposed. She was wearing shorts. Her skin scabbed so badly, that to this day she has scars on the right side of her face, arm's and legs.

Wow, sad but very relevant. Where was your mother at the time? I'll bet we could track this one down with a little help. I'm sorry about your mother, but thanks for offering her story. L.

What do you think? The US government's Dept. of Energy predicts that by 2010 the world electrical generating capacity will be 4,637 Gigawatts. In 2005, the total was 3,889 Gigawatts.

Will this activity by man, via the "magnetic field" of all that generation and consumption, help the planet's own magnetic field repel the effect of a solar storm?

Hi,

"wouldn't we need several times the energy of the earth's field to suppress the effects"

minimum 10,000 times but more likely 1million times.

Only feasible option is shielding and grounding of shield and electronics - don't switch off the voltages that develop are much higher than any ordinary switch is able to survive.

And : for very important installations: go underground.

RHABE

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm?list851047

Bit of a tickle here................it appears the lack of solar wind opens us up to cosmic radiation bombardment........

Hello Duckinthepond

Part of the perceived problems: Increases in Global temperature, Slowdown in the Solar Wind and the like, is that in earlier years there was a lack of both Sensory equipment and Sensory equipment sites.

As the better equipment and more sensory sites have been developed, our perceived and recorded changes have improved.

Much of the earlier readings were the best obtainable for their day, in the best sensory locations for that time.

Therefore the fluctuations are a natural occurrence, and it is just we are able to measure them to a finer degree.

I'm not worried about the situation, and no person or group is able to alter these naturally variable events.

Kind Regards....

Dear all,

I agree 100% that we cannot alter nor prevent the natural events.

May be we can compile here a list of possible threats and try to evaluate the probabilities of incidence and damage?

Somehow in a log scale as pH so to show the urgent needs more clearly?

RHABE

Sounds like a great topic for a separate thread - maybe even a recurring blog. Address each potential threat in a weekly blog entry. Starting off?

Starting off?

That the universe is not indifferent to intelligence, it is actively
hostile to it.

humbly

the duck.........

Sad, but true. Love seeing what you guys are coming up with. The book is coming along great, thanks to your help. Additional question: would motorcycles be less apt to react badly to a flare than newer cars?

The older and less "electronicized" the better so far as durability under those conditions. Some newer bikes have as many computer chips as cars. No hope there. I guess if you could hot-wire it with a screwdriver (or perhaps with a plot device, too) then it might stand a chance of surviving.

Thanks for the info...I suspected as much, but it's nice to have it confirmed. Another question: If a small hydropower plant (say 60 megawatts) was temporarily shut down due to some small glitch, and the flare occurred, could the spike in solar activity react in such a way as to kill someone at the plant? If so, where is the most likely place the death would occur?

60MW hydroelectric plant down for routine maintenance, load shifted to another part of the grid, so all the generators on-site are at idle. I doubt the flare would cause anything not running to start running (it would usually be the other way 'round), but something could happen to hurt/kill people. The first place I would not want to be would be out in the open, such as in a boat on the lake checking out the dam structure, due to lack of shielding. But as for anything else, I don't know. Maybe Duck has some ideas?

Thanks so much, RHABE. Just the info I was looking for. Here I am, writing an end-of-the-world novel, and the damned world may beat me to it. I'm going to have to keyboard faster.

I'd polarize the stator so that it would fuse with the rotor causing the whole gizmo to grind to a halt. The turbine generator shaft would fail catastrophically while the water pressure would be directed upwards against the now seized turbine blades thus causing the entire thing to lift and break off from its footings. As the control room floods so does the ability of the now drowned techs to shut off the water flow. Lots of Hollywood there.

Hey, good one, Duck! Thanks for the illustration, too...it helps a lot.

http://cr4.globalspec.com/thread/25592 (Solar Super Flares)

Hi to all,

we discussed the same topics in Kizmets first thread (link above) and got some very valuable input from Duckinthepond who has the merit to be one of the observers of a real big flare and its related damage.

From this input I built my opinion: there is a high voltage (the glow is an atmospheric glow discharge, the color is an indicator of involved ionisations and excitations).

The high voltage is generated by incoming energetic charged particles - more protons than electrons, so charge is building up at any insulated conductor.

If the voltage exceeds the insulation breakdown, then most commercial insulations will fail - any device with an overvoltage protection may survive if it can handle the associated current.

There can also exist high currents especially in loops of power lines and these can directly burn transformers or melt down conductors, may be combined with insulation breakdown (by heat from overcurrent).

So in the center of maximum intensity of the particle storm it is very likely that also "primitive" electrical items (motors and generators in an old motorcycle) will fail and may burn immediately or later. At the periphery only sensitive equipment will fail, mostly by overvoltage.

Few modern (non military) electronic devices will survive a huge amount of overvoltage combined with considerable charge and resulting damage of gate oxides in CMOS circuits.

RHABE