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Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/07/2009 4:18 PM

Although many manufacturers would like you to believe otherwise, electric vehicles are all comparably efficient, electrically. In other words the GM EV1 was just as efficient electrically, as today's production and near-production EVs. It was far more efficient as a vehicle than the Tesla Roadster. (The GM EV1 consumed 190 watt-hours per mile, whereas the Tesla consumes 310).

Manufacturers would like you to say WOW when you see figures like the Nissan Leaf figure of 367 MPGe. Such a figure would make you think that the Leaf is many times more efficient than the Prius. It is not. Such a figure would lead you to believe that it is far more efficient that the Chevy Volt, at 230 MPG. It is not. The Volt is rated using a different method of their own creation. The Leaf is actually rated using a standard that has been written into law, the CAFE standard.

All electric vehicles (and all plug-in hybrids that have the capability to run on electricity alone part of the time) should be rated in miles per kilowatt hour (or watt-hours per mile). This is very hard to game, because it is easily read by a watt-hour meter, etc, and it is a figure a vehicle owner could verify for himself. This is just what current electric vehicle owners do: they can tell you how much their car consumes in either AH or WH. It's simple and straightforward.

Here are some actual figures: The Leaf consumes 200 watt-hours per mile. The GM EV1 consumed 190 watt-hours per mile. The Tesla Roadster consumes 310 watt-hours per mile, unless you drive it like a sports car, in which case it consumes far more. The Volt consumes 250 watt-hours per mile, when in electric mode. (A plug-in Prius conversion also achieves about this figure.)

The resource depletion of any electrical vehicle has to be measured from well-to-wheels, if the intention is to compare resource depletion with a car that runs on a liquid fuel. (In other words if you want to come up with some MPG equivalent*.) This is written into law, and will make great sense to engineering and science types:

"When comparing gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles, it is essential to consider the efficiency of the respective "upstream'' processes in the two fuel cycles. A full description of the differences in the processes is beyond the scope of this rulemaking, but the critical difference is that a gasoline vehicle burns its fuel on-board the vehicle, and an electric vehicle burns its fuel (the majority of electricity in the U.S. is generated at fossil fuel burning powerplants) off-board the vehicle. In both cases, the burning of fuels to produce work is the least efficient step of the respective energy cycles."

The calculation for the Leaf does this... and then ... and then... multiplies the result by 6.67! You may think I am making this up, but I am not. This fudge factor is also written into the law:

"The 1/0.15 factor used in the equation is not intended to be a scarcity factor per se, but it does result in a very substantial adjustment to the raw calculated energy efficiency of electric vehicles. It is included to reward electric vehicles' benefits to the Nation relative to petroleum-fueled vehicles, in a manner consistent with the regulatory treatment of other types of alternative fueled vehicles and the authorizing legislation."

Frankly, I would not be at all surprised if the "1/.015" is written that way to appear like a small correction... it could be misread 1.015. 1/.015 is actual a 6.67:1 multiplier. So any electric vehicle is considered 6.67 times as efficient as it really is, under the law. GM loves this law, because a flex fuel vehicle is considered to run on e85 half the time, thus a 3.33 multiplier. A 15 mpg flex fuel vehicle is therefore rated 45 mpg for CAFE purposes.

As msm98lw concluded in this thread, "That rule for figuring MPG for a Flex Fuel vehicle makes the idea of the proposed/future CAFE standard of 35 MPG a joke."

He's right.

* Why would you want to come up with some MPG equivalent? To confuse people. To make them think, for example, that Nissan has discovered a magic way to power a car: tens times as efficient as even an economy car!

Disclaimer: I am the developer of a vehicle that runs on electricity most of the time. One way to make such a vehicle attractive to buyers is to make it a plug-in hybrid, to eliminate range anxiety and to reduce cost: no one wants to be stuck halfway to the hospital or halfway to an important meeting with a dead battery. I don't own stock in Exxon, but believe that gasoline is a valuable resource which can help pave the way to acceptance of electric vehicles. I also don't own stock in any coal company, but believe that coal can also be a valuable resource today for electric vehicles, and that other means of generating electricity will continue to make electric vehicles, and especially plug-in-hybrids, attractive.

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#1

Re: Nissan Leaf -- 367 MPGe! Truth or fiction?

10/07/2009 4:40 PM

The calculation for the Leaf does this... and then ... and then... multiplies the result by 6.67! You may think I am making this up, but I am not. This fudge factor is also written into the law:

Ah marketing and mathematical smoke and mirrors. I know how you feel and this has been covered before on CR4 on this and similar topics including solar power systems, audio power PMPO statements and even pseudoscience free energy and over unity devices (especially water electrolysis for cars).

* Why would you want to come up with some MPG equivalent? To confuse people. To make them think, for example, that Nissan has discovered a magic way to power a car: tens times as efficient as even an economy car!

The whole point of the MPG figure is so that an apples-for-apples comparison can be performed between standard gasoline and electric vehicles (whose cost per mile calcs are more involved, especially for hybrid vehicles). Unfortunately the only real outcome of this comparison is a nice marketing ploy that hides the expensive hidden costs of electric vehicles and a MPG figure for electric and hybrid cars that is not only inaccurate (bordering on marketing scam proportions in some cases) but who's value will be highly dependant on the marketing team's professional integrity.

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: Nissan Leaf -- 367 MPGe! Truth or fiction?

10/07/2009 6:33 PM

marketing team's professional integrity

I am trying to parse these words to make sense of them... but then I have trouble with "jumbo shrimp" too.

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#3

Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/07/2009 7:01 PM

Where the heck do they get those numbers? But, let's do the math and see what we actually get.

Gasoline is about 36.6kWh/gal, or 9.67kWh/L, and varies as much as 4% plus or minus. Based upon that, the Nissan Leaf at 200Wh/mi is roughly equivalent to 183MPG! The Volt comes in at 146MPG. On the other hand, my '91 Toyota 4Runner gets about 20MPG on the highway (and a lot less in town). This implies that my 4Runner consumes about nine times as much energy as the Leaf.

Of course, there are a few questions that need be asked. Foremost in my mind is, what is the thermal efficiency of the electrical power grid? Which is to say, how much of the energy content of the fuel burned to generate electricity actually makes it to the plug?

Thermal power generation stations range from 33-48% thermal efficiency. Furthermore, transmission losses are around 7%. So, for every kilowatt hour's worth of fuel we burn, we get between 307 and 446 watt hours at the plug, about 31-45% efficiency.

For argument's sake, let us assume an average delivered efficiency of electrical power at the plug of 38%, and see what that gets us.

So, for every watt delivered to our electrical vehicle, we are actually burning 2.63 watts of fuel. Factoring this into the watts/mile figures of the Leaf and the Volt, our MPG equivalents are more like 69.6MPG and 55.5MPG respectively. Or if you like, 526 and 627.5 watts/mile. Still pretty respectable milage.

However! A few other issues do come to mind. With a full tank, my Toyota will go more than 300 miles before I need to refuel, and I can fill the tank in about 5 minutes. The Leaf will go maybe a 100 and then need to be plugged in for hours. The 4Runner can easily carry half a ton of stuff in the back, with 78 cubic feet of space, whereas the Nissan can carry 4 passengers and maybe half a dozen bags of groceries. And, let's see the Leaf claw it's way through a foot of snow!

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 2:40 AM

The government figures for well-to-wheels square pretty well with yours -- in the first part of the CAFE calculation, they would get 55 mpg for the Leaf. (Their efficiency figures are lower than yours.)

Then in the weird political part, they multiply this by 6.66 to get 376. Magic.

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#5
In reply to #3

Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 8:45 AM

In the other thread I talked about comparing the energy in a gallon of gas from the pump to the energy used (say coal) to create 1 kWh at the outlet in your house. It appears that I was forgetting a lot of stuff.

For gasoline I would have to add the energy needed to get it out of the ground, transport it to the refinery, refine it, transport it to the gas station, and finally pump it out of the tank in the ground at the gas station into my car.

For coal I would have do the same for getting it from in the ground to ready to burn at the power plant.

My head hurts.

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#6
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 10:53 AM

I thought about that, but I was trying to get an reasonably accurate comparison of electricity with the gasoline we buy at the pump without getting too complicated. Fuel at the pump to fuel at the boiler.

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#7
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 1:08 PM

DrMoose and msm98lw: The hard work of figuring out well-to-wheels efficiencies has already been done by Argonne National Lab, and is available in spreadsheet form. They call the model GREET : Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy usage in Transportation.

Often the term "well-to-wheels" is used fairly loosely, and I'm not sure that the energy used in (for example) exploration is taken into account. For most established fuels, the difference between the fuel at the pump vs boiler is fairly small -- because most established fuels are quite efficiently brought to the pump (or boiler). As a result, the term WTW is often used even when talking about fuels at the pump vs the boiler (rather than in the ground). (Then, as in the analysis you did, DrMoose, at least the huge losses in converting the fuel into electricity via a heat engine are fairly accounted for.)

For less established fuels, ethanol and hydrogen being the most publicized (with hydrogen being more correctly considered an energy carrier rather than a fuel) the differences in processes and feed stocks make it hard to pin down a number, and also the losses are much higher, because these fuels are created, rather than just dug out of the ground. (Petroleum products are, of course, refined, but the energy consumed there is surprisingly small: the well-to-pump efficiency is about 82%.)

Thankfully, the "H2 economy" is fading into history, because a WTW analysis reveals that the losses in creating H2 (which does not and can not exist alone on earth or in the atmosphere in meaningful quantities) are too high to be feasible. In electrolysis (used for about 4% of the H2 sold -- because it is too costly) you take perfectly good electricity (itself created with losses) and then incur further losses in the process. In reforming methane, you take a good fuel and pull out CO2 (of which we already have too much) to leave H2. Then you have the losses of compressing, refrigerating (for liquid), etc. The GREET spreadsheets are useful for showing these relative efficiencies.

The simple and most basic way to deal with our energy woes immediately is to use less. Unfortunately, the schemes often used to hype one car over another (or one technology over another) make it appear that you are using less when you are really using more. The most egregious example is the H2 Hummer promoted by California's governor. Another is the LincVolt promoted by Neal Young: it's a heavy 1959 Lincoln, which can be made to appear efficient if you ignore the fact that it is powered by electricity, and focus only on the smaller amount of liquid fuel used.

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#8
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 3:49 PM

This is something I've thought about quite a bit over the last few years, and have written about it several times here in CR4. But it's worth saying again.

Every bit of energy we us is converted sunlight, in one form or another. Now, sunlight is streaming by at a rate of 1.4kW/m2, but by the time it gets down here, it's attenuated by an order of magnitude and constantly interrupted by weather and the planetary rotation. Thus, solar energy is not all that efficient.

However, what if we were to build out solar power stations in orbit? Granted it might be a little bit expensive to get it off the ground (pun intended), but assuming space-based raw materials and manufacturing, once it got up and running these power stations would be little if any more expensive to build than here on earth. In some ways it would be easier, since we wouldn't be constantly fighting gravity. And the spin-offs? WOW

The nice thing is that the "fuel at the boiler" is absolutely free. The sun is going to keep on shining, and in high orbit it's 24/7. So, it doesn't really matter what our thermal efficiency is, as long as we can get something delivered to the ground, and the numbers I've seen are actually pretty good.

So, we now have plentiful electricity, cleanly generated in high orbit and beamed down to the planetary surface. No more drilling, no more strip-mining, no more nasty hydrocarbon combustion by-products pouring into the atmosphere. Just clean, cheap electicity. Now what do we do with it?

Obviously, for most things we can just use it straight off the wire. Heat, lights, etc. But we're talking about transportation. Certainly batteries are just fine for short haul commuter stuff, but what about long haul and air transport? Batteries don't have the kind of energy density needed for that. Hydrogen does.

Under these conditions (plentiful, clean, cheap solar power), hydrogen from electrolysis becomes a very viable option. Sure, the efficiency stinks, but it's the only really clean technology with anything like the energy density per unit volume and mass that you just have to have for long haul or air transportation. And besides, where energy is cheap, when have we ever worried about efficiency?

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#9
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 5:57 PM

I gave you a good answer on that. Maybe you would answer this: If I had my own natural gas powered micro-turbine generating my electricity, what would the efficiency be? I would be running it with a battery back up, to spread the demand, and use it for the house also. Your answer assumes that the electricity comes from the grid, not from private or local solar panels, wind turbines, natural gas generators, etc.

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#10
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 8:34 PM

I have done a bit of research on your question, and the simple answer is between 30-40%. And, if you utilize the waste heat for hot water and home heating, your efficiency goes up significantly, perhaps as high as 80%.

However, there are some pretty major issues. Commercially available micro-turbine generators seem to start at 30kW and go up from there. If you design and build your own, you'd need to find a small turbine engine, about 2hp to run your generator, and that would have to be a pretty highly engineered engine if it was going to run continuously. The only turbines I've found that small were intended to power model aircraft and to run only a matter of minutes at a time.

Then there is the small matter of cost. Turbines are expensive. Even the model airplane engines I found were upwards of $6000US, and something engineered to run 24/7 would likely be a lot more expensive. Plus, you're talking about an absolutely massive bank of storage batteries, and those can be rather pricey as well.

Could it be done? Certainly. Would it be practical? I seriously doubt it.

A far more practical solution would be a combination of wind and solar, geothermal in the form of a heat pump, and possibly even small scale hydroelectric if you happen to have a usable stream on your property. Still kinda costly, but a setup of this kind could render your home almost completely independent of the electrical power grid. And, according to the U.S. DOE, the average American electricity bill is $100/mo so, if it cost $12,000 to install, it would take about ten years to pay for itself. And of course then there are maintenance costs on the system itself. Though I still think it would be worth doing. You might even make a little money on such a thing, since you'd be able to sell your excess power to the utility company. What fun!

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#11
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 9:13 PM

A very effective way of doing this is to use something like a Honda cogenerator. You feed it with natural gas, and generate electricity. (The engine is a fairly ordinary commercial engine.) A very large portion of what would otherwise be waste heat is collected and used to heat domestic hot water. Because there is so little waste heat, the overall efficiency is 85%. Whispergen is another company which makes such a unit, with the powerplant being a Sterling engine. They claim 90% overall efficiency, IIRC.

For these to work, there has to be a balance between the need for heat and the need for electricity, but in many cases that balance can work well.

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#12
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/08/2009 9:47 PM

Nifty little device, but it still assumes a connection to the public utility system. The system I mentioned so briefly in my previous comment however, has the capability of rendering one's home completely independent of the grid. And I kinda like the idea of not having to buy power of fuel for my home.

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#13
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/09/2009 4:52 PM

Are you trying to put the utility companies out of business? If a few do it they can live with it, but if too many people generate their own power and sell it back to the power company, they will put an end to it.

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#14
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/09/2009 7:00 PM

I kinda like the idea of putting the public utilities out of business, but it's not going to happen.

First of all, there is no way in which every household in the world could possibly be fitted out with an environmental energy system such as I described, since the concept pre-supposes a fair bit of acreage to work with. Parts of the system could be installed in a city home, but probably not the whole thing.

Second is that our industrial plant runs on electricity, and environmental energy systems do not provide anything like the energy density required.

So the power and gas companies probably have a long future before them, more's the pity.

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#15
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Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/11/2009 12:39 AM

I am seeing natural gas, shale gas ,landfill gas, propane, and manufactured biogas as the cheap energy solution for the next 100 years. It looks like it can win out over solar, wind, etc. It is well distributed over most of the nation already, and a few more pipelines can serve the rest of the country. The gas can then be converted, locally, to electricity. This will save most of the line loss. In fact various types of electrical generation can produce electricity at any scale desired, from large plants to individual homes. The Leaf can run off of electricity made at home. Heavier vehicles, or fuel cell vehicles can run off of gaseous fuel. Liquid fuels can still be used, and their price can be kept reasonable, by competition with gaseous, and other alternative fuels. I would love to see solar, and wind be competitive, but not be chained to them because of dubious global warming theories. I am more concerned with , what I consider, real pollution.

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#16
In reply to #15

Re: Nissan Leaf - 367 MPGe! Truth or Fiction?

10/11/2009 4:10 AM

I am more concerned with , what I consider, real pollution.

Such as methane [natural gas], much better to burn it & turn it into co2

I agree that we should increase efficiency & increase our use of terror free energy!

I would imagine that there are also significant losses involved with pumping natural gas, someone like steve s or petro power I'm sure could definitively quantify...

Still distributed generation of electricity is a good idea. Moving towards a more regional model would bring more stability to the energy markets.

Biobutanol & algae [converted to diesel & biobutanol] are probably also potential solutions, It's hard to beat the energy density liquid fuels.

Electric's & hybred's should have a place in the mix of transportation & logistical options.

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