What's Our Best Survival Strategy?

Sustainable Living becomes possible on the very planet earth itself.

*Control population

* Controlled use of resources

* Select renewable materials and recycle

* Avoid burnings for energy and power

* Be with nature

*Take care of your garbage

*Bring in sustainability in all technology considerations

* Leave out traditional ways and take up to new out look thinking

* Preserve resources.

I do agree what you are pointing out. The biggest problem is that we have larger cities populated by ever wanting people and the cities are struggling to have the infrastructure to support such growth. There is a strong inertia of moving toward consumerism by most countries (China, India, Brazil, etc). Everyone wants to live a life that the earth resources cannot support. We get older and want more people to support the aging population or we have an older population amassing things and power (money) to live a hedonistic life. Who does not want such a life? We are reluctant to surrender our wealth or desire for wealth for the next generation let alone a millenium of every increasing populated earth. Education seems to demand its own rights. However, I don't think we can go back to living a monastic Buddhist life as a whole population.

I am with Hawkings in that we will eventually run up against a full petre dish. Malthusian economics will dictate what will happen in the future. The pessimist view is that we will battle for resources and lower the population through war. It is argued by Jarrod Diamond in Collapse that we have already have a record of such problems that led to near extinction of cultures (Easter Island, and more recently Rawanda). Modern genocides are likely also part of this mix. As the population grows so will problems and demands on the environment.

Your ideas are a lofty goal but I fear we will only get there once the whole world experiences one of Diamond's collapses.

I would welcome a Jarrod Diamond collapse, if just one could change us.

Out of two options, whatever Stefan says, it is clear we are not capable of leaving earth and colonise somewhere else in next hundred years or so. Technologically we are not that advanced yet, and I do not hope to be in next hundred years.

Now, the question is will we survive next couple of centuries, if we go on consuming resources at the same rate of consumption today, and increasing population. If we survive then only option one is possible.

Somebody gives option of spreading spores of human species in the universe. Why to worry about continuation of human species in the universe? We need to worry about out next immediate generations, who are going to face the severe problems due to our irresponsible use of earth resources. What does it matter if there is no human species in the universe after few centuries.

Due to scarcity of the resources, in next few centuries mass extinction will be there and only the population which earth resources can support will survive.

There is a strong inertia of moving toward consumerism by most countries (China, India, Brazil, etc).

USA and few other countries are using the resources/person disproportionate, though total consumption of resources may be of the same level by India/China due to their great population. If USA controls the use of resources/person and India/China control the population, the period of survival will increase to great extent.

Thus there is no option to follow what post #1 says.

Kevinm,

How are you? Long time since we ever met. My approach seems to be lofty, but as a Sustainable Development Researcher more than looking out for resources in other planets, the human brilliance should be capable of meeting all the growing needs of comfort and costs well within our techno reach.

I would like to lay emphasis on a critical point that we got to break traditional thoughts and habits. Few of my suggestions are,

* Buildings need not be of concrete alone

* Water needs to be substituted

*Rain water is more sufficient than any human efforts for fresh water.

* Energy need not be by burnings alone

*Humans will understand and behave wisely on aspects of population control.

*New thoughts will make human life sustainable.

* Planet earth is bearing unique qualities for life sustainment.

* Optimistic thinking should be the inherent attitude in engineers and Scientists

Hello old friend. All is well but last night I must have been very pessimistic before I wrote my entry. And Petre dish is meant to be Petri dish, mea culpa. I am mostly upbeat and enthusiastic about human possibilities. Space exploration and travel is yet a dream not beyond its infancy. Present day technology does not allow for colonization of even the closest planet in another solar system. That is assuming we can find a planet that can be made habitable. We may have to bide our time until we explore that possibility and that may take another few centuries.

It is the changing of traditional thoughts and habits that may cause the most problems with the human struggle for survival. And it is precisely that change that can offer interim survival while technology plays catch up with outer space possibilities. Many of the present societies are entrenched in both thought and habit and will not budge from the positions they have taken. I am with you fully on living within a sustainable manner as our best bet for long term survival. The big question is how do we get there collectively as humans? I hope it does not take a major collapse causing severe distress (natural or man made). Your problems with water in India are very different from the problems with water in Canada. Perhaps we will discover the means of sharing our abundance with your shortage. Water can be the difference between survival and extinction. Maybe our energies should be spent on that sort of exchange before we see a clash of thoughts and habits. The problems in Canada are dealing with a short growing season. It would seem there is room for fair barter in this area at least.

I think evolution has clearly demonstrated that there is no single solution.

Colonizing the planets, managing Earth's resources, living in a retro culture like the Amish, wilderness survivalist, 3rd world, high tech, low tech, whatever -- there is no way to predict the long-term future so picking just one method is a good way to ensure failure.

Agreed, the only solution that guarantees success is trying all solutions. We must try as many methods as possible to sustain ourselves and survive. If we're really, really lucky though we will eventually have to find a way to travel out of our solar system. It is expected that eventually our star will cool and grow to swallow the earth. We do have several billions of years to plan for this eventual fate. Just as my mortgage finally gets paid in full.

I see a problem in that, given the probable distances to "habitable" planets, and because this is a one way trip, the need for enough people and equipment to equip for, and maintain life during, the terra-forming the planet, all of the resources of Earth will be used up in the effort leaving none for anything else.

With today's technology and anything that looks promising in the near future, I agree that we cannot move from here. But I refuse to limit my ancestors with negative thoughts. Maybe our only hope will be to deliberately scatter microbial spores that can survive long dormancy in space to promote life elsewhere. But we are a long way away from having to be this desperate or knowing with certainty our fate.

Bth (and any other ideas we can come up with)) of course. Getting off the planet and colonising the solar system is a good first step but so is better husbanding of the Earths natural resources. Any other conclusion is naive and short sighted.

Entropy teaches what the end game will be. Sadly, we are crisis motivated so we will likely play out our hand well in advance of the entropic end game. It is unfortunate that the same genetic traits that allow us to survive extremely hard times will be those traits that bring us down. Unless greed and aggression can be brought under control, we will stay too busy killing each other to notice that the window of opportunity for survival of the race is rapidly closing around us. That's just our short-sighted nature.

Just to play Devil's Advocate for a minute, might we be trying to hold back evolution by insisting that our species must continue. Might we be stifling the next evolutionary hurdle that humanity should become.

Yes, we maybe overcrowding our petri dish for our species to continue growing. If we don't plan on "proper" use of our natural resources things will get ugly. Yes, we maybe the first species to consciously be aware of this before it happens.

But we have made things ugly many times in the past already. A few of our ugly times came from earlier climate changes beyond anyone's control, many times we just do it for no reason at all. Often I feel that when people get too sure about what is right for others, great evil seizes the opportunity.

An engineer is a part of society. Engineers are the backbones for the development of society. He is the man who puts the ideas formulated by scientists into a useful device so that society can benefit out of that. The future of the world is tied up with growth of science and life is becoming more and more dependent on science. Engineering is an art of utilizing the great sources of power in nature for the benefit, conveniences and survival of mankind. Engineering in its modern form, involves men, money, materials, machines and energy. With multifarious development activities going on in the society, engineering disciplines have also become diverse. An Engineer is an important link between established philosophies and scientific knowledge, and the society for its realization. It is bounden duty of engineers to ensure that environmental balance is maintained for welfare of the mankind. One immediate area engineers can help is sustainable design . For example sustainable issues to be addressed at different stages during a building design by engineers are:

· Carbon emissions from buildings.

· Use of water.

· The indoor environment.

· The way that buildings can be adapted for climate change.

· Reducing the use of potential pollutants (e.g. refrigerants).

· Effective waste management

Another important area engineers have to focus is use of renewable energy to save the environment. Though there are many uncertainties surrounding environmental problems, all can be resolved by the collective efforts of engineers in association with policy makers. It is expected that the world is marching towards clean development mechanism (CDM). Engineers, being a part of the society, are the main driving force of this CDM and to play crucial role to save the planet earth for future generations.

Pak Protectors.

We neglect natures principles:

survival of the fittest (maybe the fattest are the fittest depending on circumstances).

So why should we or our children be fit for a changing world?

We have to limit the rate of change - this has been too fast for the last 50 years.

This is equivalent to a servo mechanism with delay-time and high gain: inevitably instable with oscillations.

We live with younger people no longer fit at all. Obese, untrained, not educated. Look at the survival capabilities of soldiers in Afghanistan or Iraq? Western soldiers need a lot of equipment and support to survive, local soldiers need near nothing. So who would survive in a big crisis?

Material and energy:

We need to be more careful with our resources and at the same time we need to develop new and refined methods of extracting and regenerating the treasures of earth.

We can replace most copper use with aluminum, but we cannot replace Gallium, Indium, Samarium, Europium etc.

One open question arises about simply not enough material available at the right time.

Next: energy. Sooner or later most cheap energy resources will be depleted. I am not so pessimistic as most informed people are as I have seen and heard since now 55 years the frequent statements that this or that mineral will be exhausted within 30, 40, 50 years. But for sure energy will be much more expensive in 300 years. So if we are not ready with alternatives there will no more exist a technological culture/civilisation.

Some countries rely on nuclear fission, a wise strategy, we have to develop the maybe only possibility to survive. Still better if burning Thorium is included with low-grade nuclear fuel. And burning of nuclear waste to come down from storage time for nuclear waste from 300,000 years to 3,000 years.

Reality will enforce lower use of material by scarcity and price and subsequent crisis in non-prepared states. Mankind's responsibility is far beyond.

Earth-and Man-made crisis:

If global warming is triggering a big release of methane from cold-water ocean-deposits then a huge temperature rise and poisoning of our atmosphere will/may start.

Which society will survive this?

If one of the supervolcanos will blow again (Yellowstone seems to be the most likely one) then half of our (worldwide) economy will be dead for months or years.

Not survivable for any society!

Astronomical crisis:

Solar super-storm: think about shielding and radiation hardening of most important parts of our countries infrastructure. Else dead within the next 500 years.

The big impact may be as unlikely as a supernova nearby or a merging of neutron-stars or a black hole swallowing another star. Any of these if not very very distant will kill us - no chance.

Conclusion: (Nearly the same as the Indian contributors above)

- Take care of nature and natural resources.

- Impose severe taxes on energy- and material-use, with funding of recovery of materials and refined mining technology.

- Try to control the population, we don't need 10¹⁰ people here on Earth.

- Let the last "wild and nomadic" people as they are and live. They may be the only ones to be capable to survive a big crisis. Protect them from unknowing or greedy intruders by military banned regions around - nothing else will work.

RHABE

When will people start to treat Stephen Hawking as an individual.

Colonizing the moon? Leaving the planet earth for a life in space? That's about as idiotic an idea as I can think of. The technology is not even close to being there.. so why would he interject as an option? Why not just seek out the next .. already hospitable planet and send our people there?

Because it's not possible. .. Not even a good idea..

We would be better off to dry up..

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Live, farm, and take care of what we have..

enjoy our time and company for a few million more years if possible..

Earth and space will decide when our time is up..

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Stephen.. please

Tell me? what's the best way to protect myself from the eventual potential alien onslaught?

I think the answer may be to hide on the moon?

..oh oh.. I think that in a couple hundred years we should have developed a novel way to fold space time, and then we can run away from this mess.. problem solved

In other words you are prepared to live on maybe 5% of what you have now?

Spread the wealth of the world evenly and you probably end up with even less than that.

No unemployment lies though - if a person wants a job they just go get one - picking rags.

"In other words you are prepared to live on maybe 5% of what you have now?

Spread the wealth of the world evenly and you probably end up with even less than that."

I'm not and neither are the vast majority of people.

If we are running out of stuff we need to find more stuff. Where? Look up. Everything we need is out there, we just have to go and get it. Even fresh water is out there. You speak of the "welath of the world" but there is so much more than just the "world". Developing the necessary technology to harvest the planets and asteroids etc. will be a huge step in developing the technology we need to get off this little ball of dust we call home.

The sky is NOT falling, but that is the problem. We need it to fall, but we need it to fall in a controled manner in the right places. Where is Henny Penny when we need her?

Agreed! Thinking while looking into a gloomy corner leads to rather self defeating solutions and proposals.

We read many of those all over the net.

Thinking while looking into a gloomy corner?

Preparing for the end of the world? That's a laugh.. It amounts to spending endless money while wasting endless time.

talk about a doom and gloom mentality

.... go ahead.. leave the planet if your so inclined

..free yourself from the suffering

You apparently have your cave picked out?

Yeah.. I do.. It's a 3 bed 2 bath cave in a nice part of town.

Honestly though? What part of my response leads you such a statement?

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Less a natural disaster of global killing proportions.. we will be here for .. forever.. or 2012.. whatever comes first.

..What's so sustainable about the moon or mars in the first place?

If the choice was to move there? I'll pass .. because there is no such choice.. and there will be no such choice..

..nice place to visit though..

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...And what's with all this talk about human spores infecting space? Am I the only one who has a grasp on biology and technology?

This topic is discussed all over the place and one thing always puzzles me. Why are the options always stated as "We must do A OR B". I want to see an "All of the above" option.

The technology might not be ready to begin colonizing another planet.(but then the people who say that sound a lot like the people who said Columbus would sail off the edge of the world.) Does that mean we should not be discussing the option and working hard towards making the technology available? Regardless of how "green" we all live from here on in there will come a time when we have to leave or die. That time might be in a million years or in a million seconds. We don't know. Start packing now. I think we have a much better chance of making the technology possible than we do changing the living habits of the majority of humans. It is basic human nature to want more, to consume more, to take more. To change that will require more of a leap than to colonize Mars.

Actually, Usbport and I, in our comment #2 and #3, did make an all of the above answer. The only sound bet is to choose as many choices as possible. This is how evolution works. Because of this I am confident that the Earth will have life on it when the sun starts to expand and slowly boils off all of the water on this planet. I highly doubt though that our species will be there then lamenting our fate. Possibly another sentient species that descended from us or another species that is here today will be lamenting their fate. But it disturbs me when people who proclaim that they know how humanity should live. Every time I hear that comment, I hear a tyrant.

Why develop the technology to harvest the planets and the asteroids? ..

We can just get the technology from the aliens.. We just need to prepare to defeat them when they come to harvest our planet.

Simple... and yet the most difficult thing. All of the actions posted by s.udhayamarthandan-- especially population control -- are good and are probably necessary. These things come naturally to persons who have retained the spiritual side of humanity. Sadly, very few even think there is a spiritual side of man (and woman). So many problems come up because of children born into poverty. And as pointed out by others, some countries (like U.S., for instance) use a disproportionate amount of resources -- many of which we have taken from other peoples and countries. That, and concentration of wealth in the hands of a very few (percentage-wise) make for an unpleasant world for most inhabitants here.

Unfortunately, these problems will never go away because of the mind. This is a practical view understood by all mystics. This world is not designed to be a blissful haven. It is the result of concentrating outwardly on matter rather than inwardly on spirit. It is designed to, eventually, wear down this outward mode so that the inward mode is finally sought to escape the pain of physical life. It is a matter of seeking and experience. This viewpoint (purpose of this world) is borne out by the fact that, probably, 99% of readers of this post will think it fantasy or delusional. Religion does become delusional when the inner side is lost. But the words, "Seek and you shall find", were and will always be true. Just don't expect to ever see a heaven on Earth -- or any other planet man can go to. Physical life is not where lasting happiness happens.

I know many would say, "Meditation is becoming much more mainstream." But most meditation techniques do not lead to anything or anywhere. They help calm the mind for a while but do not get rid of it. The true goal of meditation is to shed the mind (a covering over the actual spirit in man) so you may remember and experience who you truly are. You are much more than a body of physical matter. How far most people are from this!

To the extent that true spirituality blossoms this Earth can be improved vastly. But a prison is, after all, a prison.

Thank you guest for the your elaborate comment. One beauty about humanity is the awareness, intelligence and quicker adaptation to situations. It is emancipated in all our ethical, religious, social, political,cultural, educational, living styles and lot more avenues of our activities.

So to say, humanity had struggled and survived all these eras thus improving safety, security. survival and exploitation of all possible resources. The effects are also obvious and there is a good deal of awareness in today's generations.

If we think and act as whole of humanity with awakening on consequences of our activities, certainly there is good room for optimism on our survival, a greener and happy earth. That is why human race is unique and bears lot of capabilities to overcome constrains.

It had survived through all times and will continue to make a sustainable living in future too. Knowledge, alternate ideas, self control, leadership and co operations could be key drivers.

Let us hope for the best and resolve the mess around us.When there is a will there is a way out there

Go beyond managing earth's resources and support/encourage technological advances.

"...for the past few decades, it has been the backlog of unimplemented technological advances, rather than unused physical resources, that has been the determinant of real growth" (Paul Zane Pilzer)

If anybody likes to colonise Moon or Mars or any other planet, why not as a training camp start on Spitsbergen and Novaja Semlja, Northern Greenland etc! These are ultra-nice places compared to Moon or Mars. Air and water abundant, unfortunately scarce sun and energy.

Anybody who thinks about colonising planets shall go back to lessons to learn what is missing. Hawkins never learnt the engineering necessities - he is a theoretical physicist!

If anybody thinks that our (Western) civilisation will survive for more than 1000 years should explain what is now different from earlier civilisations. All declined after some period of blossoming within 500 to 800 years. A few only had a revival after a chaotic and devastating time.

The next big crisis may come with the next generalised pest on rice, corn, soy, wheat and other cereals or potatoes. If any of these sectors is failing for more than one year there will be a major trouble. We have beaten down insects and other pests now very likely nature will beat back with hardened "biologically hardened" bacteria, insects, molds including some man-made hardened genetically engineered plants.

So without any doubt we will run into trouble sooner or later. Think about the ancient and medieval outbreaks of the pest, the Irish potato rot of 1845, the European hunger year of 1817 - how do you think we will evade this?

RHABE

HOPE!