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Missile Defense: What's In Store?

Posted March 13, 2013 11:44 AM by HUSH
Pathfinder Tags: military missile defense technology
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It's easy to poke fun at North Korea. They're the little brother of South Korea that wears a plastic bucket on his head, only to tell you it's an army helmet and that he demands to be taken seriously.

Kim Jong-Il, the late leader of the country, was: the largest individual importer of Hennessy cognac; a western film buff and self-described auteur; an amazing golfer who accomplished about four holes-in-one each game; a composer of operas; the inventor of hamburgers; a fan of personal waterslides. I could go on and on. His recently-enthroned son Kim Jong-Un can be just as eccentric. Last week he and Dennis Rodman became best friends forever.

It's not just the eccentric leaders that turn North Korea into a mockery; Hollywood has done its share. The film Team America depicted Kim Jong-Il as a slurring puppet, and--though I love this sitcom--the long-running show M*A*S*H made light of the Korean War, a war that claimed between 570,000--960,000 lives (to be fair, M*A*S*H was actually a social commentary on Vietnam).

Despite these jokes, North Korea needs to be taken seriously as it has become increasingly belligerent in the international community. In recent years they've sunk a South Korean warship and shelled South Korean territory. Most troubling, it conducted another nuclear test and released a video of a Korean man dreaming of an America in flames from a North Korean attack. This past Monday, North Korea took the step of revoking the armistice between it and the South, meaning the sides can continue the hostilities of their never-ended war.

That same Monday, U.S. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said, "I can tell you that the United States is fully capable of defending against any North Korean ballistic missile attack." And while I like to believe my government when they say they can defend me, Popular Science recently disputed their capabilities to do so, saying America's missile defense was "flawed" and "troubled." PS cites a lack of testing and design limitations, and while many of their assertions are right, they don't paint the full picture of the U.S.'s anti-missile operations.

Deployed in 2011, Israel's Iron Dome is a missile defense system meant to protect Israeli citizens from rockets fired by Hamas, the Islamist government of Palestine. In 2006, Hezbollah of Lebanon killed 44 Israeli citizens with a barrage of 4,000 short-range rockets. This prompted Israel to develop a missile-defense system with 30% of the $1 billion in funding coming from America. March 2012 was the first time the entire Iron Dome network was able to be intensively tested by continuous rocket fire, and by November defense officials were quoting Iron Dome's rocket interception rate as 85% successful.

Iron Dome is a three-piece system consisting of radar units, a control center, and launchers. The radar unit is placed along the front lines to detect launches and begin tracking the rocket. The detection unit predicts the trajectory of the warhead and uploads this information to a battlefield management and control center, who initiate an Iron Dome launch if it's determined that the rocket targets a populated area. Each system can protect approximately 150 square kilometers, making them very effective in metropolitan areas.

The most notable limitation when applying this technology to the U.S. homeland is its area coverage. While effective for Israel, it's a nation similar in size to the state of New Hampshire, or about 1/474th of the land area of the U.S. At the moment, Israel does not have hermetic coverage, nor likely will it ever. Also, while Iron Dome is great for short-range rockets, the kind of long-range missile needed for North Korea to reach American shores won't be intercepted by Iron Dome. Rather, a ballistic missile defense is required, such as the Aegis system currently deployed on some American warships. Some officials warn that budget cuts have left the Aegis system underdeveloped and understaffed, as noted by PopSci.

A ground-based missile defense system is optimal, but the U.S. is unwilling to obtain permission from the international community to use the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system it co-developed with Israel in the 1990s. The resistance of the American military to innovate new defenses, while funding other more proven technologies, leaves American soil vulnerable to a ballistic missile attack. There must be some comfort in knowing that North Korea delivering a nuclear warhead by missile remains just outside their technical grasp, even if by only a few years. Heck, North Korea can't even develop an original propaganda video, instead relying on altered footage stolen from video games (and copyrighted music, like Michael Jackson's 'We Are the World').

So while Iron Dome, Aegis and Arrow are not failsafe missile protection programs, it's not long before the U.S. has--and needs--a ballistic missile defense like Ronald Reagan's 'Star Wars'. If/when hostilities begin again, the Korean Demilitarized Zone (which is awesome for Tigers, by the way) will be defended against by the some of the best technology the U.S. and its allies can offer. I can only hope that if the war spreads to North America, that the U.S. has the best technology to defend itself.


Resources

(Image credits: NBC News; CBC; Rafael Defense Systems; Global Security; Wired)

PopSci - The U.S. Says it Could Stop a North Korean Missile. How?

Wikipedia - Kim Jong-il; Aegis Ballistic Missile System; Arrow (Israeli missile);

Rafael - Iron Dome datasheet (.pdf)

Time - Iron Dome: A Missile Shield That Works

Washington Post - North Korea releases another propaganda

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#1

Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/13/2013 2:15 PM

I am going to disagree with some of your premises.

First, The idea that North Korea will suddenly strike the US or even South Korea is highly unlikely. I will explain that shortly.

Second, a missile defense system does not need to be 100% effective to be effective. I understand that some people may believe that, but the reality is that it only needs to be effective enough to make the other side not strike because the probability of success is too low for the return on investment.

There are other factors, too. Any first strike is unquestionably going to be followed by a massive counterstrike. That counterstrike will first render North Korea's nuclear capability null and void, then degrade command, communication, and control of North Korea's military to the point where it can no longer function as a unified army.

North Korea is well aware of this and while their nuclear program brings them to a better bargaining position at the negotiation table, it is more important not to lose that chip.

For the last 20 years North Korea's method of operation has been a two-legged stool. Leg one is to make bold and brash threats (occasionally bolstered by acts of minor aggression). The other leg is lunacy. North Korea has created an air of acting in unpredictable and insane ways. I charge that North Korea's leadership and its doctrine are not insane, but well orchestrated measures designed to get a specific response.

The West has a part to play in this as well. You will notice a long history of North Korea not acting so much like the kid with the bucket on their head, but a spoiled child, which the West has become an enabler to that behavior.

North Korea stomps their feet and the West capitulates by providing food or other things in return for a sense of normalization.

The pattern has gone on for decades, but there may be some problems with that playbook and what we are seeing now is an attempt to redefine that pattern into a more effective means.

Also, consider that Kim Jong Un is only 30 years old. The likelihood of his leadership being unsound is echoed by many in North Korea, not just the rest of the world. Kim Jong Un does not rule in an absolute sense, either. The regime is a complex mix of individuals and institutions that all have a hand in shaping policy.

China also plays a role in this as well. China's vote in the UN is more symbolic, but the root of China's policy toward North Korea lies with its own self interest to keep the US and the West from gaining a greater foothold in the Koreas and impinging on China' severity and projection of power. To this end, China plays a role to keep North Korea alive and enough of a nuisance to maintain a status quo that keeps the US and its allies focused or actually defocused from other interests of China.

In the grand scheme of things none of these actors (North Korea, South Korea, China, nor the US) want a resumption of war. However, it is more likely that North Korea is determined to find new and effective ways to get the things it needs as the doctrine of the last two decades fades in effectiveness. The world is simply yawning at the antics of North Korea and this presents a larger threat to the current regime's survival.

To this end I expect to see changes in the behavior of North Korea as it tests and probes various strategies to see if they return what they need.

This is simply geopolitics in action. One of the main ingredients is public rhetoric and the other is what goes on behind closed doors outside of the public sphere. The two are often quite different from each other. Public rhetoric is just that; rhetoric designed to set a public mood or fear of some future possibility. Whether that future possibility is an immanent reality is another matter and one that leaders hold close to their vest.

We can boil that down to things like "ability" and "willingness", both of which may not be certain. The ability to carry out an act is usually more clear than the willingness to act, which is always a closely guarded secret.

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/13/2013 11:32 PM

These considerations are as thoughtful as anything I have yet seen. Until the future actually unfolds, there is not much way to know anything with certainty, hence the need for sober thinking.

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#3
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 12:51 AM

"No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Goering. You may call me Meyer"

  • Hermann Goering

... the rest it's history.

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 6:46 AM

I think your point addresses the "ability" side of the equation. It is clear that North Korea has the ability to launch various types of attacks from conventional shelling to a possibility of launching a long range missile, but not with a nuclear payload and not with enough reliability to assure validity as a first-use weapon.

The last statement is an important one because any first strike must have an overwhelming degree of certainty that it will succeed or the result becomes a disaster of incredible magnitude.

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#7
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 9:27 AM

Good answer. I hope you're right and they realize that our chances of intercepting one of their missiles is a whole lot greater than their chances of intercepting ours.

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#8
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 11:51 AM

Good insights Anonymous Hero,

One of the unknown factors is the instability of the leadership, which makes the predictability or rationale hard to plan for. It's a little like trying to reason with someone who has Jihad on his mind and is willing to cut the heads off of humanitarian people who are there trying to help his people, just because he wants to make a point. There is no bargaining or logical thought process possible. Or, like dealing with some crackhead, there isn't a reasoning process that will bring resolution. The only avenue open is using force, better proactively than reactively.

The North Korean leadership is willing to spend a high percentage of the funds they have available on a military whose goal is to overpower it's enemies, rather than develop it's economy. It's starving citizens pay a huge price.

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 12:16 PM

You wrote, "One of the unknown factors is the instability of the leadership, which makes the predictability or rationale hard to plan for."

Absolutely.

You wrote, "It's a little like trying to reason with someone who has Jihad on his mind and is willing to cut the heads off of humanitarian people who are there trying to help his people, just because he wants to make a point. There is no bargaining or logical thought process possible."

Not necessarily true. Even the jihadist has a specific goal in mind and has chosen a specific course of action to reach it. Even acts that are just to demonstrate a point are goal oriented deeds that are designed to impact the thinking of another group of people and steer those people toward some desired course of action.

North Korea's leadership are not simple crackheads. Their acts of "lunacy", as I pointed out before, are carefully designed and correlated to evoke a specific response toward a goal.

The proactive use of force against North Korea is counterbalanced with China and their geopolitical goals. If North Korea is invaded, China will intervene and that is an escalation that no one is willing to undertake.

North Korea understands this very well, but their are limits as to how far China will go protecting North Korea as much as their are limits as to how much punishment they will allow North Korea to endure. North Korea also understands that very well.

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 1:24 PM

I'm not saying they're "crackheads", I'm saying their rationale isn't normal. I was just using the crackhead and the Jihadist as illustrations of illogical thinking. When someone is willing to proceed with illogical, irrational behaviors, that then should influence our responses to them.

I am in no way in favor of a preemptive military strike against NK. That would, like you said involve the Chicoms and escalate very quickly.

"Their acts of "lunacy", as I pointed out before, are carefully designed and correlated to evoke a specific response toward a goal."

I'm not so sure their actions are sane. That is seen by their willingness to sacrifice the well-being of their citizenry for the sake of a military prepared to overthrow their neighbors to the south.

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#12
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 3:13 PM

You are defining sanity by our own social norms.

Even within the US the definition of insanity can be clinically subjective.

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/15/2013 7:23 AM

"The proactive use of force against North Korea is counterbalanced with China and their geopolitical goals. If North Korea is invaded, China will intervene and that is an escalation that no one is willing to undertake."

I don't think we have anything to worry about; at least not from NK.

You're right that NK's actions are intentional and thought out, but not as much so, as what China does, or doesn't do.

NK will get away with no more than what China allows them to get away with, and China will never allow them to jeopardize their trade with the rest of the world.

As we fret about what NK may or may not do, in the grand scheme of things, we are playing our role perfectly. Focusing our attention on the little barking dog, while the big dog quietly goes about his plans.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-27/north-korean-dependence-on-china-trade-rises-as-sanctions-worsen-isolation.html

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#13
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 7:54 PM

Well spoken, and, I think, a sound analysis. Thanks.

You sound like you have some professional experience in the Intel Analysis field, if only because of the sound logic an clarity of your message.

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/15/2013 7:17 AM

Just an armchair geopolitician. :)

However, my business benefits from this type of intel.

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#16
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/16/2013 10:22 PM

Bravo, a very sound well reasoned analysis.

I disagree though that North Korea will not suddenly strike South Korea. They shelled a South Korean island just over two years ago. I realize this was under the presidency of Kim Jong-Il and not Kim Jong-Un but obviously many of the same military officers hold the same positions they did then. This point though doesn't significantly contradict your analysis. North Korea can and will continue to act like a spoiled child that can only get attention with a temper tantrum.

The only way I see North Korea changing their ways is the very unlikely path of a military invasion by China. Should this ever come to happen I expect that China would swarm across a river to make its point but to then return. I doubt China wants to annex anything on the peninsula. I dread to think what North Korea would have to do to provoke China to invade. At the very least it would have to seriously threaten US/China business relations. I don't think any North Korean actions (short of a direct attack on the US) could jeopardize US/China business relations.

One last comment on the missile shield point that the OP brought up. I agree that a missile shield does not have to be 100% effective to successfully mitigate a missile attack from a rational regime. I also agree that stopping a rogue or erroneous missile launch is far better than blind retaliation on the launch site country. However, the implied idea by the OP that the US can absolutely prevent an attack on the US is pure folly.

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/17/2013 9:13 AM

Well said.

The incident at Yeonpyeong and the sinking of the South Korean Navy ship in the Yellow Sea are really small incidents in the bigger picture. That is not to trivialize any loss of life, but this is a long way from a massive invasion or full shelling of Seoul.

North Korea will only do what it believes will not result in a massive retaliation by the US or South Korea.

Interesting thought about China. If they do intervene it may be a post invasion after a US air strike under the guise of stabilizing North Korea. That seems like a long shot, but history has taught us to expect the unexpected.

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#5

Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 8:39 AM

North Korea would have a better chance of getting what they need by playing nice and coming to the table asking for something they can use.....

Nuclear capabilities are so 1950s.....

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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 9:10 AM

Sadly, that is not so.

The West will simply not support the existing regime (no free country would) and any aid would have all kinds of strings attached it in the way of internal reforms.

Since the primary goal of the regime is self survival, "playing nice" would do nothing in the way of keeping the regime in power. In fact, it would do just the opposite.

This is why the potential of hostility as a mechanism to extort aid is so effective. The only concession such an actor needs to make is to dial down the threat of hostility in exchange for things the regime needs.

However, there may be some truth to the loss of effectiveness of the North Korean nuclear program as a mechanism for extortion. This card may be losing its punch and one of the reasons why North Korea appears to be changing its doctrine that has worked so well for the last two decades.

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#11
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Re: Missile Defense: What's In Store?

03/14/2013 1:45 PM

WOLF!!

Wait, why is no one listening..??

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