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Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

Posted April 02, 2014 8:51 AM by HUSH

Last weekend the sun shined.

I know that doesn't seem novel, but I promise it's newsworthy for us here in the American mid-Atlantic. After five years of living the pampered winter life, four months of heavy snow, bitter cold, and all-around insufferableness have made this season a throwback classic--a winter remix if you will.

So now we're on to spring: everyone's favorite reprieve. The rivers flood. The trees bud. The flowers bloom. And Mets fans everywhere are still filled with optimism.

The good news is that spring is getting longer, at the expense of winter. And autumn is also getting a bit longer, electing to cut the fingernails off the impending icy grip brought forth each November and December. The bad news is that this phenomenon, a clear result of climate change, may signal that we've lost control of Earth's greenhouse effect.

Of course, spring and autumn aren't getting any longer on the calendar or in an astronomical sense. Also remember this is infinitely more applicable to the Northern Hemisphere. Instead, we're referring to the integrity of the plant life as temperatures drop, and how soon plant life rebounds as temperatures rise. To determine this, researchers had the ignominy of scouring 25 years-worth of satellite imaging. They then measured the relative greenness of each day during those 25 years across several types of terrain zones. Their conclusion was that forest and grasslands have been staying greener later in the year, and are also getting greener earlier.

This news came just two days before the UN Scientific Panel released a report that global warming has reached a critical point. One of the report authors summed it up terrifyingly.

"We're all sitting ducks." Ouch. Duck Hunt, anyone?

More than 100 governments approved the report, which ominously concludes that the global warming projections made by the UN panel in 2007 were awfully optimistic. It predicts relentless heat waves for Europe, wildfires in the United States, droughts in Australia, and flooding across Asia and Africa. Furthermore, poverty, sickness, and violence will be aggravated, as crops become threatened and political ties are strained. Finally, it will widen the gaps between economic classes: the rich will be able to afford necessities, while the poor will suffer without.

All of the above, simply because Earth temperatures are expected to rise by about 7° F from now until the year 2100. Taking things a step (and a billion years) further, many scientists believe that eventually Earth will resemble Venus, a planet whose runaway greenhouse effect has boiled away its oceans. In fact, this scenario is virtually a guarantee considering what we know about star cycles--the Sun is going to grow until it heats Earth to a ridiculous degree and annihilates all of known life.

The table at right illustrates potential temperature increases for the next 85 years. The top row is a best-case scenario, while the lowest row represents a worse-case scenario.

But there is a chance we can delay our impending apocalypse, if we can finally agree to curb greenhouse emissions. This objective has been repeated a million times, but it needs to be repeated a billion more. Else we face another extinction event, one humans likely won't survive.

The last extinction event, the Quaternary event, began 50,000 years ago. It killed off sabertooth tigers, woolly mammoths, and thousands of other species we recognize only through fossils. But the Quaternary extinction event hasn't ended; as our Earth's environment continues to evolve, so to must its fauna. Experts believe two things likely initiated the Quaternary event: humans, via overhunting and disease distribution, and climate change. So when it's humans causing the climate change, these two variables becoming much more terrifying.

This coming spring and summer, while enjoying the warmth of the Sun's rays, remember life only exists because sometimes it isn't so sunny.

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#1

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 9:53 AM

That report is blatant fear mongering.

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#10
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 12:10 AM

data?

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#11
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 12:42 AM

The word "terrifying" is a dead giveaway!

Data is missing in the article to the point that I can't easily find the longer Autum and earlier Spring times. I am also missing a note, that besides the winter are getting shorter and the Summer is longer, the year is still the same length.

Data! Yes its missing plenty!

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#21
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 7:45 AM

Fear sometimes motivates people to do heroic things. Not this time.

Haiku for the day.

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#22
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 7:49 AM

In this cause, its trying fear to motivate others to react.

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#40
In reply to #1

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 1:50 PM

Former warming alarmist James Lovelock agrees with you.

From the article linked below: 'I don't think anybody really knows what's happening. They just guess' - Lovelock Reverses Himself on Global Warming

Here's the link:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/04/03/green-guru-james-lovelock-on-climate-change-i-dont-think-anybody-really-knows-whats-happening-they-just-guess-lovelock-reverses-himself-on-global-warming/

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#58
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/04/2014 4:07 PM

.

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#2

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 9:56 AM

Yeah, if my kids don't stop growing they will be 20 feet tall when they reach my age....

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#23
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 8:32 AM

Good one. I'll have to remember that.

As Mark Twain once said:

"In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod."

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#3

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 10:16 AM

"Experts believe two things likely initiated the Quaternary event: humans, via overhunting and disease distribution…"

Here is another fallacy that defies explanation coming from what are supposed to be intelligent people.

80,000 to 50,000 years ago humans numbered about 10,000. My town has more people than that.

Then a 10X population expansion happened at about 50,000 years or so ago and that was supposed to set off a global climate change?

However, nothing much happened on the climate front until 30 years ago when all hell broke loose.

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 11:49 AM

Since humans been on this earth for the last 100,000 years. Human's came close to extinction a number of times...... one report being that there where only as few as 1300 humans.

Maybe just maybe, one of these times nature will get it right...

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#45
In reply to #3

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 4:21 PM

The source of your material is unclear, as is your argument.

It seems unlikely that 100000 humans can affect anything globally, let alone the climate. Why is this alleged connection significant?

There have been data-driven concerns about climate change since about 1950, not just 30 years ago. The correlation between unprecedented levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration and the Industrial Age is undeniable.

Extinction, whether due to climate change or not, is happening and is a cause for very serious concern.

Humans are going to muddle through. There will be "adjustments" (wars over land & food) in which potentially millions of people die over a small number of years who wouldn't otherwise die.

Those of us in civilized societies will be inconvenienced, or worse. I for one fear what will happen when half of Florida becomes uninhabitable... where's all that craziness going to go?

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#46
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 5:27 PM

If you meant to respond to my post, then the counter point I am making is already clear in post #3.

Just look at the claim in parentheses. All I did was counter that claim and your stance appears to be the same. Why is the connection significant? You would need to ask the original author as it was their claim, not mine.

As for the 30 years statement, that was the point where concerns ramped up or maybe I should say the rhetoric on the subject got hot.

The wording that "unprecedented levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration" is a little misleading in that this is not the first time the Earth has experienced rising CO2 levels in its history. I think you are trying to draw a correlation between the industrial age and CO2, which is a little easier to substantiate than claiming unprecedented levels of CO2 when CO2 levels have been much higher in the past.

Anyway, no one really has an understanding of what is transpiring here as the science is too immature. I base that analysis on the fact that we simply can't predict what is happening and then make ad hoc explanations as to why the climate is not following predicted paths. Theories need to be grounded on repeatable experiments and we are not there yet.

As for your fears, they really are unfounded. While there are many noisy mouths as to what our fate "might" be, we simply lack the depth of scientific knowledge to back up those claims. Worse, all of the banter sounds more and more like pathological science. Using Langmuir's test for pathological science I find that Climate Change fits that definition better with each passing day:

1. The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative agent of barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause.
2. The effect is of a magnitude that remains close to the limit of detectability; or, many measurements are necessary because of the very low statistical significance of the results.
3. Claims of great accuracy.
4. Fantastic theories contrary to experience.
5. Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses thought up on the spur of the moment.
6. Ratio of supporters to critics rises up to somewhere near 50% and then falls gradually to oblivion.

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#47
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 5:49 PM

Our position on the original article is roughly the same - I didn't read it as thoroughly as I should have.

"Unprecedented" applies reasonably to CO2 levels because the planet hasn't seen these levels for 400,000 years. That's longer than humans have been around; "unprecedented" didn't exist as a concept before then. :)

Unfortunately, that does mean we don't have experimental evidence to support theories of what's going to happen to the climate with greenhouse gases at their current levels. So all we've got is theories and simulations, with a very short baseline of experimental verification.

All of science is immature, but it's the best we've got. I don't think climate science fits the definition of "pathological science" you posted as well as you think it does. #1, 2 and 6 don't seem to apply.

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#49
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:27 PM

I would disagree with your counter to points 1 & 2. Point 6 is yet to play out in my mind.

Another red flag is all the fear mongering going in general and in this report as well. You hear this every day when every weather event of any significance happens there are cries that this is due to global warming. There is clearly no science to these claims, just fear mongering.

The latest revisions in the IPCC's prediction on temperature rise in the next 100 years is not a refinement in that number but an expansion of nearly an order of magnitude in the predicted range. That tells me that they simply do not know to the precision they thought they did, but they made sure that the lower limit of that claim is higher than the old upper limit was.

It's fear mongering because even the chart of the world in the original post showing temperature rise over the next 100 years uses the absolute upper limit of their new less accurate prediction as if this is established fact.

Then there is the politics of the debate, which is so intense that I have little faith we will ever get this sorted out as we know how badly politicians hate to be wrong - so much so they will make up anything to make it true. It become an emotional debate, not a rational one.

The truth is, time will tell, but no one wants us to take that time to tell, which is yet another red flag for a problem that is going to be slow to emerge if it really exists at all.

However, the powers to be want us to act now and act decisively and don't think. There are calls for us to make great changes/restrictions to our life style, increase taxes, install a single governing agency, and the list goes on and on ad nausium as does ratcheting up the fear.

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#51
In reply to #49

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:40 PM

I suggest that everyone consider the source. All the time, on every topic.

If you're getting your climate science from a dj, politician, industry shill (ANY industry) or local weatherperson, then it's not going to be very reliable. I prefer to listen to <drum roll> climate scientists.

They do in fact recognize that they're trying to predict things with insufficient data. But when they measure wildly unprecedented readings with potentially catastrophic consequences, they need to go there. Some are at this point quite unwilling to attribute any or all of the recent severe weather events we've seen over recent years to climate change. Others are finding it hard to stay neutral on the question.

The theory and predictions are still as strong as they were without seeing what looks like more severe weather... Unless they actually predicted milder weather!

I for one get increased confidence when their predictions turn out to have been too cautious, and they revise upward as they get more data. That's only partly scientific of me, I realize.

The way the IPCC has a history of avoiding alarmism makes their more alarming predictions more plausible, in other words.

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#54
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:52 PM

Yeah, and if the Dust Bowl had happened 80 years later I am absolutely sure people (politicians and scientists alike) would be screaming that it was inconvertible evidence of anthropogenic climate change.

From my limited lifespan I look back and see the last few years of summer and winter as just that, summer as winter pretty much as it always has been. Sometimes it is mild, sometimes it is severe.

The problem now is we have been induced with environmental hypochondria and I am 100% sure that is culturally anthropogenic.

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#55
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 8:44 PM

When you look back and remember what temperatures and seasons were like, I look back and remember that in order to analyze anything, you will not be relying on memory to create data.

I'm impressed by an almost exact opposite posting technique by SilvCrow. That NOAA site, which is an incredibly useful repository of data, which can be assembled, reassembled, mined and disected in thousands of ways, seems to indicate that he "pasted" the data. I searched and searched, ran test after test of data to try to replicate these statements. I succeeded by seaching for low temp anomaly zones in narrow geographies, then backtested those zones to see if there was a cooling anomoly over time. (the last 20 winters is a convenient way to further dissect the data) When you find one, you can create those statements. There is a reason it is called global climate change. Because if you track global trends, which reflect all seasons, and which reflect all geographies, those statements are irrelevant.

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#61
In reply to #54

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/05/2014 7:46 PM

Hey AH.

.

I'm not sure the Dust Bowl is the best example to use here. The cause of the Dust Bowl was decidedly anthropogenic, so in your example you re suggesting that politicians would be screaming and in the right....which I find highly implausible.

.

One other remark on an earlier point in the discussion... I don't think the article was saying that ancient humans caused the climate change back then, the article is saying that the extinction event was triggered by human, via disease spread and overhunting and (as a separate factor) climate change.

.

It seems like over hunting mega fauna would likely have the effect of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions though.

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#65
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/06/2014 7:35 AM

I think it is. The Dust Bowl was poor farming techniques couples with a sustained drought.

The poor farming techniques are purely self induced, but in no way related to global climate change. The poor farming techniques was only half the equation.

The drought itself is the closest thing to climate change, but it followed so long ago that the industrial revolution's environmental impact was insignificant.

Then again, we have printed stories recently that try to blame activities of 10,000 humans 50,000 years ago for global climate change (ice age), the Dust Bowl should be easy to pin on humans if you believe that claim.

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#66
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/06/2014 4:48 PM

One of the things we learned from rhe 'dust bowl' is that we need to keep wind breaks around farm fields. Tree lines provide reduction of wind velocity at the ground as well as providing shelter for birds and other wild animals. Consider just how well we aren't keeping to that practice now as farm machines (and fields) get bigger and even bigger. The last few years have seen several near dust bowls as a result. It wouldn't take very much more to trigger a real one.

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#63
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/06/2014 2:40 AM

What severe weather events are you referencing? Yea winter was cold in the US, Europe not so much. Tornados were at low levels. What's the hurricane prediction for the Caribbean?

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#48
In reply to #3

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:18 PM

Apologies due to my utmost respect for you but I cannot accept this chart as factual.

It is an estimate at best and may or may not include the populations of North & South America and/or the Pacific islands for the periods of time illustrated.

There have been significant archaeological discoveries recently such as the very large city buried in the sands surrounding the pyramids and the ruins of large cities in North & South America that have cast serious doubt as to exactly how many people existed during the time periods shown on the graph.

This being said I totally agree with your point of view on the "terrifying" statement in the original OP by the environmental ?.

The facts are that the earth has an asymetric cycle as far as temperature, humidity, and pestulence is concerned of ehich man has very litte influence and these cycles have and will go on whether we are here or not. (Just look at the redwood tree rings to view the cycles.)

One of my pet peeves is the outlawing of R12 , R22, R501 in the USA supposedly due to global warming yet the replacement refrigerants are far more inefficient and therefore require significantly more energy to produce the equivilent BTU's of cooling and/or heating.

This preposterous idealogy results in more electricity being used which causes a higher carbon footprint and thus far outweighs any possibility of reducing greehouse gasses.

If anyone doubts this they only have to review the energy consumption sheets provided by HVAC equipment manufacturers to see that for the same size BTU unit the energy consumption of an R12 and/or R22 or R501 unit consumes as much as 48% less electrical power.

The only way the HVAC manufacturers can meet the energy efficiency requirements using R134A and/or R410A and receive the SEER rating is by use of two compressors (small compressor during low demand periods and a larger compressor or both during high demand periods.) in conjunction with variable blower speed.

If this same methodology were to be used with R12, R22, and R501 the energy consumption could be reduced dramatically and the benefits greatly enhanced.

If a sealed HVAC unit is correctly installed and is of high quality there is only a minute possibility that any of the freon can ever get released into the atmosphere if the proper maintenance techniques are followed using reclamation equipement.

Besides; most third world countrys as well as Russia and China do not adhere to any of the environmental requirements/guidelines and their output dwarfs our contribution.

Rant Over. (Sorry but this crap really gets to me sometimes.)

What the hell happended to the Scientific Method? Is it being applied to environmental? It sure doesn't appear to be so.

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#50
In reply to #48

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:31 PM

"What the hell happended to the Scientific Method?"

I think it has been replaced with the Political Method.

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#52
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:42 PM

LOL!

I am constantly amazed and overwhelmed at times with the level of incompetence displayed by those considered to be "experts" of which the world leaders follow without question.

The scary thing is that there appears to be multitudes of people that want to believe whatever is spewed out of these so called "experts" despite evidence to the contrary.

Me thinks P.T. Barnum is correct and the time period in between the births is decreasing exponentially.

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#5

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 12:57 PM

Remember those world-wide mass starvations back in the 80s and 90s that wiped most of the human species off the face off the Earth? The ones predicted by Stanford professor Paul R. Ehrlich in his book 'The Population Bomb'?

Yeah, me neither.

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#6

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 11:05 PM

WARLOFB!

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 11:11 PM

And dont ask me to translate that! I leave it to the readers imagination.

Here is one hint: R stands for really.

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#37
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 11:29 AM

OK. I MIGHT be dumb (Don't think so, but the jury's still out. We'll have to wait for their definitive answer.), but since Ask.com, Google, and Yahoo ALL say they haven't a clue, no answer, nada, zip, I'm lost. Really is clear (that was the freebie) and it looks like LOFB be COULD have something to do with Laughing our Butts Off, except the spelling would be ALL wrong. Anybody?

"We Are", preceding "Really", seems clear, and "Laughing" (Off? Out?) looks likely, but where to for the last two characters?

Help, Mr. Wizard!!

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#39
In reply to #37

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 1:39 PM

It not a nice expression to be honest and if you cant read it into it, it will be better not to tell you!

The F has another meaning and makes it what it is. The B should be followed by an S but who cares in the morning when S hits the fan!

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#42
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 2:30 PM

Ah, yes. You are right. It would be better not to tell me. Thank you for the consideration, and I'll drop the subject where it is.

No wonder he didn't want to state it clearly here. Ouch.

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#8

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/02/2014 11:17 PM

The first link is not showing what is being said in the text. How about getting the sources correct? What is stated as a fact is linked to a prediction.

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#9

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 12:05 AM

Yes

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#12

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 1:00 AM

An end is inevitable, maybe not due to AGW but something will eventually reduce this blue green gem of ours into it's constituent parts. Not too soon is my bet.

Everyday is a new beginning of the end of something.

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#13

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 3:14 AM

The world WILL end on Friday!!! It will be back to normal by Monday, Tuesday latest.

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#14
In reply to #13

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 3:53 AM

Cool down boy, will ya?

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#15
In reply to #14

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 4:12 AM

It's 40°C at the moment (3PM, Phnom Penh). I wish it would cool down.

same as last year, and the year before, and the year before that........

10% chance of a thunderstorm. bring it on, it'll cool things down.

Today may be the end of the dry season or just another day before a mango shower.

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#16
In reply to #15

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 5:06 AM

It's now 41°C. That's 1°C increase per hour!!!!

Makes the 7°F per century prediction look pathetically alarmist.

Tell me, am I doomed?

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#17
In reply to #16

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 5:56 AM

Absolutely. It's only 32ˆ¨¥†øˆ¨¥†®´∑´ß∂ƒ©˙∆˚C here. ;-)

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#19
In reply to #14

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 7:24 AM

If it gets any cooler where I am I shall be drinking antifreeze to stay warm. There is snow still laying on streets in the town, with ice still on the lake surface. I am happy to swap this location for any of your locations, any time.

And as for Friday, I was joking, it is actually early Saturday morning. It is an MPO, (Myan Planned Outage), and has been booked for several centuries. Another earth tilt change and an adjustment to gravity.

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#18

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:06 AM

Did the sun shine your shoes?

(There is a difference between transitive and intransitive verbs.)

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#20
In reply to #18

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 7:31 AM

Transitive verd. Thinking of moving.

Intransitive verb. Already moving.

Ceased It has stopped

Deceased It is no longer stopped.

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#24

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 8:44 AM

"More than 100 governments approved the report, ..."

Yep, that kind of validation is certainly reassuring...

Oh...

Wait...

Is Al Gore in that list?

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#25
In reply to #24

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 8:47 AM

Is that like saying having a patents from a number of country's validates an over unity device?

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#26
In reply to #25

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 8:57 AM

Certainly.

If it benefits the politicians.

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#62
In reply to #24

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/06/2014 2:29 AM

Were any of them "experts"?

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#64
In reply to #62

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/06/2014 3:17 AM

Of course they were all experts. We just did not know how expert they were, then.

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#27

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:29 AM

http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how-to-talk-to-a-sceptic/

Of course there is no problem. As the Black Knight said, "'tis but a scratch".

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#29
In reply to #27

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:34 AM

I Prefer the "Dead Parrot Sketch" myself.......

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#38
In reply to #27

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 1:36 PM

Guide how to talk to a sceptic! Its getting better by the minute:

from (link in the guide)

.

Objection:

The Antarctic Ice sheets are actually growing, which would not be happening if Global Warming were real.

Answer:

There are two distinct problems with this argument. First, any argument that tries to use a regional phenomenon to disprove a global trend is simply dead in the water.

.

So the regional phenomen of the artic ice melting must be also a bogus argument. I see!

.

Secondly, the phenomenon of thickening of an ice sheet is not by itself inconsistent with warming! Such an increase in ice mass in the face of actual warming would be the result of increasing precipitation and this is fully consistent with the Antarctic in a warming world. The Antarctic is actually one of the most extreme deserts on the planet, and warmer climates tend towards more precipitation.

.

This surly would mean that the Artic is cooling and precipation is low hence the Ice melts! Me thinks there is funny arguments in the air. Or is it just hot air!

I am yet to see when the arm falls off!

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#41
In reply to #38

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 1:52 PM

"...and warmer climates tend towards more precipitation."

Ed Zachary like the Sahara Forest!!

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#28

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:31 AM

Everytime I see a post from one of my liberal acquantences complaining about the cold weather and "When is the snow gonna end ??" I reply with the following comment and photo.

"Well Thank God for Global Warming !! Imagine how bad things could have been without it..." ;8^D

Standing tall on North Dakota snow A March blizzard nearly buried utility poles. Caption jokingly read "I believe there is a train under here somewhere!"

Feel free to do the same if you're tired of hearing this "Political-Control Agenda" being Force-Fed down all of our throats.

Next on their agenda: How to make the new key phrase "Arctic Vortex" the new "Global Warming" Scare. Boo!! Now quit your cryin' !!

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#30
In reply to #28

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:35 AM

Yep, they used to make those poles pretty short back in the day......

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#32
In reply to #28

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:49 AM

And applying the new workplace philosophy:

"The good side of this new exciting challenge is lower maintenance cost of the power lines due to easier access to the conductors so we can afford to layoff more personnel to decrease our operating cost."

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#33
In reply to #28

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:52 AM

My father has a similar picture of my grand father (his dad) standing on the snow with the top of a telephone pole sticking out of the snow a few feet. I don't remember the date, but I think it was in the 30's and was in New York state.

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#31

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:42 AM

By the way, when I was growing up we learned about this kind of stuff in Science class. They called it "Cycles". C'mon, say it with me "C Y C L E S..."

There now, that wasn't that hard now was it?

Modern Day Snake Oil Salesemen: Politicians and Scientist who want control over you and want to take your money.

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#34
In reply to #31

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 9:53 AM

We have to do something............. here's my plan.

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#35
In reply to #34

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 10:05 AM

Tut. Tut. How are they going to tell us the sky is falling, if they don't have any heads?

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#36
In reply to #35

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 10:07 AM

I didn't say is was a fool proof plan.......... or even that its a great plan............. but it's the only plan available, so I'm going with it.

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#56
In reply to #35

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 10:30 PM

I grok your TANSTAAFL!

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#88
In reply to #56

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 8:53 PM

People will soon be finding out about that, after the elections of course.

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#43

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 3:16 PM

Where is the science all I see is an article by a science writer on information compiled by a bureaucrat of the UN.

50,000 years ago falls in line with the Laschamp event. Which may of have a good bit to do with weather changes and the mass extinction.

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#44

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 3:30 PM

And where is the repetitive heating/cooling cycle that has occurred throughout the history of the earth figured in? There will be another ice age - history has proven that.

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#53

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 6:47 PM

Here is some real data.

the just-released official meteorological winter (December - February) climate data reported by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center Climate at a Glance site at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ indicates that:

· Meteorological winter temperatures in the contiguous United States have trended downward at a rate of 1.13 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.

· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Northwest Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 0.7 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Northern Rockies and Plains Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 1.5 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Upper Midwest Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 1.9 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Ohio Valley Climate Region have trended at a rate of 1.4 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Northeast Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 0.6 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the West Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 0.6 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Southwest Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 1.4 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the South Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 1.2 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.
· Meteorological winter temperatures in the Southeast Climate Region have trended downward at a rate of 0.2 degrees F per decade over the last 20 winters.

Sorry if this comes up unnested. Had a heck of a time getting the data pasted here.

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#57
In reply to #53

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/03/2014 11:30 PM

I agree. The climate is becoming more volatile. If you search using 'maximum', what result do you get?

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#59

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/04/2014 4:09 PM

Remember last year when "Global Warming Scientists" said Global Warming has actually been put "On Hold" for the last several years but it will be "Coming Back With a Vengeance !!" Oooo... I'm so scareded'd !

Go look it up (for a laugh) if you don't believe me.

These same "Scientists" kept stating that Global Warming was occurring every year for the "last several years"??

Reminds me of the late great Comedian Henny Youngmen:

"A doctor gave a man six months to live. The man couldn't pay his
bill, so he gave him another six months."

That's scientists explaining Global Warming.

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#60

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/04/2014 4:23 PM

Scientists search for melted snow…

Then get stuck in the ice.

And when ship got stuck, they said

"Well isn't this nice"

And isn't it Ironic

Don't you think…

;8 D Quack Quack !

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#67
In reply to #60

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/07/2014 12:19 AM

That was not there before!

Where did that come from?

Just a local event!

Globally we are just fine...

.

Ehh, Correction: Globally we still on a warming trend. Its all them damn precipation when it gets warmer.
.

Where did that come from again . . . ?

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#68

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/07/2014 1:14 PM

I shudder each time this subject arises. Opinions on whether GW exists are offered by people who have no scientific basis for such an opinion, and more so on AGW. Many of the opinions seem to be based on solely on the like or dislike of the vocal advocates.

I think most people agree that there is GW but balk at AGW, I don't eliminate it, I accept the possibility. My middle daughter had allergy induced asthma until she grew out of it. Her doctor used a dam for an analogy. He said that the dam (her resistance) held back the various layers of allergens and irritants. Trouble came when the level of causes overflowed the dam, treatments were to lower the level of the causes and raise the level of the dam that was holding them back.

In the case of GW, I think of the dam being the layers of opacity to earth radiated heat on the greenhouse windows. The largest part is humidity which is beyond our control, we can only effect the layers within our ability to control, I'm not sure we can control CO2 anyway, even if we knew for certain that it was a single way to limit GW.

I just don't know how so many people can be so absolutely sure, one way or the other, that they know.

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#69
In reply to #68

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/07/2014 1:33 PM

I agree with you all points of GW.

I just don't know how so many people can be so absolutely sure, one way or the other, that they know.

This point is were I run into problems, I was pretty much in the middle, until the what I would call fanatics who saw it as black and white........ only then, did I put the brakes on and played devils advocate for a number of reasons...... and very wary of when its political or corporate views/stances on GW

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#70
In reply to #68

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 5:19 AM

If we could just admit that we know that we dont know.

Painting things Black and White is what happens, but the reality is in the Grey area!

So we know!

That we dont know!

.

Somebody posted that!

http://www.compoundchem.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Spotting-Bad-Science-v2.png

We should be aware of this!

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#71
In reply to #70

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 7:43 AM

I think this is true.

There are far too many other pressing issues in the world that really deserve our time and resources. Climate change in not one of them.

Unfortunately, climate change gets too much attention on the world stage. It's not that we should not continue research, we need to. However, we need to temper our efforts realistically. Contrary to what many say, there is time to approach this problem in a disciplined and thoughtful way.

If I were to make any predictions it would be years from now looking back we will say what a waste it was to divert so much on foolish hysteria.

A second prediction would be that the hysteria will get worse before it gets better. That means, while I hate to be the purveyor of doom, that sooner or later a climate change post will seriously challenge the infamous bathtub breaking post.

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#72
In reply to #71

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 7:52 AM

"There are far too many other pressing issues in the world that really deserve our time and resources. Climate change in not one of them." What unbelievable garbage. Nothing is more serious - the future of civilisation is at stake.

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#73
In reply to #72

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 8:19 AM

That is only true if the hysteria created by politicians, scientists, and the media is true. I say not so much or at all.

Scientists are under extreme peer and funding pressures from politics, and a growing devolution of peer reviewed periodicals. Peers that challenge the IPCC's findings are ostracized. This is the making of classic pathological science.

Consider even if the wild accusations by the IPCC are true, that scenario plays out over a century and we have time to work through this intelligently. We have only had a few decades of meaningful data to draw these dire predictions from and those models have yet to demonstrate what is actually observed. There are far too many unaccounted variables to consider right now and the IPCC expects us to make critical decisions based on fault-ridden predictions. That is what is garbage.

The only functioning tool the IPCC and its followers have is fear and it seems clear that it is working well given the long list of disciples of fear, but fear is not part of the scientific tool chest and employing that simply shows the weakness in their hand.

If fear is your proof, then no one can help you.

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#75
In reply to #73

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 9:11 AM

You are undoubtably a smart guy. All of us see your posts regularly, and much like old salt, you seem to make comments when you can contribute something useful. I thoroughly enjoy reading them. You would never accept the logic you are now trying to sell, for some reason, which I'll probably never know.

If I came on here and said that the vast majority of Americans are huge energy wasters, because of metrics that say that Americans on average use twice as many units of energy per person as Europeans, and 5 times as much as the rest of the civilized world, would you say that the conclusions I draw, that we can and should revise our building standards to reduce energy consumption, are irrelevant? That 9 out of 10 professionals say we could and should increase our efforts to reduce energy consumption, because of the envirnmental (not referencing climate change) and capital costs of supplying that energy. Or are do you say that the experts are conspiring to comply with a secret agenda to make money and remain politically viable? (like, say, a utility that burns coal)

You are accusing NOAA of pathalogical science, like Martian canals, cold fusion, perpetual motion machines. It appears to me that you do not accept the premise that we can, through our actions, reduce the rate at which the earth is warming. Could you supprt the premise that reducing carbon emissions primarily reduces water and air pollution, and that that is a worthy fight?

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#76
In reply to #75

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 9:26 AM

I accept Anonymous Hero's logic, endorse it and repeat it in as many venues as I am able.

As far as your second paragraph I object to your denigration of Americans as energy "wasters". If we have the resources to support our power generation requirements, are willing to pay the price (cost + reasonable profit), and are not proactively harming the environment or people, who are you to say we are "wasting" energy.

Comparing our usage to others is apples to oranges. We have developed a different highly individualistic culture that those who propose as you do would like to change to the highly regulated quasi socialistic European model. I, for one, do not wish to go there.

Your final paragraph is a straw man argument. It's based on the (politically driven) presumption that the earth is in a human induced warming cycle that must be addressed. I reject that premise.

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#77
In reply to #76

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 9:51 AM

"As far as your second paragraph I object to your denigration of Americans as energy "wasters". If we have the resources to support our power generation requirements, are willing to pay the price (cost + reasonable profit), and are not proactively harming the environment or people, who are you to say we are "wasting" energy."

I don't denigrate Americans. I am an American. I make bold and proactive decisions to expand my positive impact on the world. Cost of energy components include harming the environment or people. They have a price that you deny. I don't. Therefore, I believe we should try to manage our affairs.

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#80
In reply to #77

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 12:49 PM

"Therefore, I believe we should try to manage our affairs."

I agree. You manage yours and I'll manage mine. And keep your hands out of my pockets in the meantime.

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#79
In reply to #75

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 12:18 PM

We have debated this ad nausium.

The simple test is predictability. We have models of every shape and size, yet none of them correctly predict what we observe. Clearly, we don't really understand what is happening, let alone why.

However, are you suggesting we act with great haste based on this kind of information?

Most of us would answer no, but I think this has turned into an emotional debate. It's understandable given the complexity, but the wrong thing to do.

I have consistently stated that it is wise to be frugal in our use of resources, try to tread lightly, and continue to expand our understanding of our universe. Nevertheless, it is wrong to rip up the social fabric of this life and the economic system that supports it based on incomplete and incorrect modeling. Actually, it may not be just wrong, but stupid.

Yet, that is exactly the political game that is being played out here with climate change. The rhetoric chatter revolves around fear, condemnation of anyone that has a different opinion, and social inequality all preached from the Church of Global Warming.

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#86
In reply to #79

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 8:11 PM

If it was just wrong and stupid. What gets me is that it is deliberate! It is to tear apart the fabric of society.

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#87
In reply to #86

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 8:21 PM

Only if it continues unchecked.......... That of course is my opinion.

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#89
In reply to #87

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 7:26 AM

I'm sure the next generation will fix it. (they will check the growth)

Here is a temp chart from NASA (those government shills)

http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

There is also sea ice, land ice and sea level data. They seem to have collected empirical data for about 45 years for these studies, but if you would like, I'll post some links to theories about accuracte methods of predicting temperature ranges for both past and present. While it does seem clear to me that these trends are inter related, I take your point that they may not be. That would be an anomoly.

Again, I am most interested in reducing air, land and water pollution.

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#90
In reply to #89

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 7:43 AM

I posted before, that to address climate change....... people, (and by people, I mean the fanatical climate change people) would make more head way by addressing pollution.

Because its the fanatical believers is what I believe was the biggest detriment to trying to convince people about climate change.

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#91
In reply to #90

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 7:52 AM

no comment on the data, particularly sea levels? You did say it was BS in post 84.

BTW, I have extremely accurate temperature station data going back to 1920 or so.

I count that as 90 years, not 30. Where did you get that, (1985?) I already had some gray hair then, and I can't remember not having temperature reports. But as I said not too long ago, memory makes a poor data source.

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#92
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Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 8:00 AM

He probably got the "30" from me because most of the data gathered prior to a few decades ago was based on less accurate methods than employed today, where satellites can better determine surface temperatures.

Even the satellite techniques are maturing, which is another one of the complexities to stitch historical data together based on changing methodologies and normalize everything.

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#94
In reply to #92

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 8:54 AM

I think it more likely, the data from Africa, former USSR, China is either non existant or faked. 90 years ago, data from Antarctica was also non existant, I doubt even Arctic and even northern Canada data were adequate. Would you accept data from Africa or the Middle East today that is not derived from satellites? 30 yrs is a reasonable figure for data that is not extrapolated from other sources.

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#95
In reply to #94

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 9:02 AM

China history of keeping and recording phenomena whether it was weather or astronomical was bar none......... it's unfortunate if that changed.

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#97
In reply to #95

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 1:57 PM

I thought it was "Wee No Haf". He is related to the Co Pilot on the plane that missed to the runway in SF.

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#98
In reply to #97

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 2:01 PM

Oh, Maybe it's the All you can eat Buffet

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#93
In reply to #91

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 8:03 AM

when it comes to climate change............. Now matter what position you take, there is never a shortage of data to support ones view...........

And what was mentioned before, I much rather wait on the data that is not piece meal that also quells the passion.

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#114
In reply to #91

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/10/2014 8:11 PM

I choose to ignore some of your posts, why you may ask?

I hope your data is better organized than your replys here...... Post 84 is not my post, it's JWthetech post.......?????

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#78
In reply to #72

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 10:12 AM

If you just had a look outside you will find that there is more pressing issues than the so called Climat Change. You are not going to change your climate in the next 100 years. Where it is tropical it can not become supertropical. On the other hand you should be looking out at the channel. The rivers in Thailand (but not only there) receive a good load of rubbish every day. Garbage (to use your slang) is virtually floating down into the ocean.

Lets say if somebody wants to find a plane and only finds garbage we have a problem.

Pollution, deforrestation, overpopulation, access to drink water are real problems. There is far more. On an open scale of topics that need to be addressed Climate Change is ranging very much just above Zero!

I think we can not stop the rain, we can not stop a storm (we proved that at CR4 just recently) which makes me think we should start working on the problems that are within our reach. We no need to tackle things that we barely understand.

Start with what we understand and where we can act and know exactly what to do!

I am dead sick of people that want to save the world and do not start with the urgent problems at hand.

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#81
In reply to #78

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 2:34 PM

By trying to correct a problem with out actual real understanding, ........ the corrective action resembles this. #34

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#82
In reply to #81

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 4:00 PM

Here is my understanding of the problem. Back in the late 90's, a consensus arose that clean air and clean water as a mantra was not sufficiently sexy enough to continue to drive the spectacular successes that EPA, State Resource Agencies, Clean Air and Water Act, Nuclear Regulatory, etc. made throughout the latter part of the 20th century. There was a new danger that could drive humanity to greater reformation of the last 300 years of slash and burn the Earth Policy, and that was a new awareness and growing pool of data showing that sea levels were rising because of a global shift in temperature, correlating with the industrialization of man. Weather aside, rising sea levels are bad for humans. Cause and effect seems straightforward to me, and to most people, but for some, it is an assault. I'll admit that there are, in my mind, many possible outcomes of climate change, possibly that it takes a couple of hundred more years to cook this planet. What is more important to me is that we reduce the massive shitstorm of air and water pollution that we create every minute of every day. and reducing co'2 emissions does that quite nicely.

The cat's out of the bag. I don't care all that much for global climate change, because while it may eventually kill off the humans, I'm betting it's the other things that maim us. Like species destruction and extinction due to lack of air, food, water and habitat. Maybe we need to kill it (the planet) and move on. There are bound to be more.

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#83
In reply to #82

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 4:20 PM

Back in the late 90's, a consensus arose that clean air and clean water as a mantra was not sufficiently sexy enough to continue to drive the spectacular successes that EPA

Like all regulatory arms of the government like the EPA, OSHA, FDA, etc.......

With the exception of outright blatant encroachment of the regulations. there is no right or wrong answer. But a compromise. The Department does not want to impede on a company to a point that it will put the company out of business.

An example. I worked at a shipyard, where there were OSHA violations that were over $2,000,000.00 in fines and penalties........

Of course our safety record at the time was very little lost time due to injury and no deaths. Even though we had violated safety regulations, Such as unsecured storage of some ladders, electrical cords on the floor,..... etc.... , I'm sure they took into account of our safety program and records and after an appeal, those fines were reduced to $26,000.00.

The point I'm getting at like OSHA and the EPA the violations were very Tangible, but due to political and economics, a compromised was made.

Now with GW, even though there is a consensus of scientists of GW, that is all they have. And to a point that they changed from Global Warming to Climate Change. Other than that, nothing really tangible (even though the consensus would claim that the weather patterns should be enough) This does not offset the political and economic fallout if it was pressed.

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#84
In reply to #82

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 5:47 PM

Your first sentence mostly destroys your entire argument, consensus has nothing to do with science, facts do. Would you please show us any evidence of rising sea levels? Venice, Maldives, Holland? As for the successes you are so awed by, some are the result of greater awareness, but many are the result of the closure of much of our heavy industry. While you're at it show us some correlation between man made CO2, and increasing temperatures. You know the rising temperatures that have been flat for the past 15 yrs or so.

As another poster pointed out, we have at best 3 decades of reliable data, how can you possibly get a sense of direction for events that take place over millennia?

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#85
In reply to #84

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/09/2014 7:59 PM

It's my opinion that Scientific Consensus can be a slippery slope of following a popular belief that may be nothing more than a popular fad and/or alterium motives...... (Such as getting funding)

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#138
In reply to #78

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/15/2014 2:06 PM

"If you just had a look outside you will find that there is more pressing issues than the so called Climat Change."

Nothing is more potentially dangerous to the human race. When change happens too quickly, the entire ecosystem is at threat. Look at what a possible extinction of honey bees could do to the food supply. As we share our food supply with other animals, that source for us (our meat) could be threatened, as effects cascade. Even if CO2 warming is not the threat most scientists say it is, are you happy to no longer eat seafood when sea pH becomes too low (CO2 > carbonic acid) to support fish & shellfish?

"You are not going to change your climate in the next 100 years. Where it is tropical it can not become super tropical."

Wrong. Being shown to be wrong, just last summer Jan / Feb in Australia. So many higher max temps last summer in Australia - some up 6.5˚F. Winter in California up 4.4˚, previous highest + 0.8.

"On the other hand you should be looking out at the channel. The rivers in Thailand (but not only there) receive a good load of rubbish every day. Garbage (to use your slang) is virtually floating down into the ocean."

'Location' not same same 'nationality'. Did you ever try to tell a Thai something? Chok dee! I tried to do my bit, wasted a lot of time, now focussing on solutions I can implement myself

"Lets say if somebody wants to find a plane and only finds garbage we have a problem."

They are not looking for a plane. They are only looking like they are looking for a plane.

Or should I say 'They are only wanting to be looking like they are looking for a plane.'

"Pollution, deforestation, overpopulation, access to drink water are real problems. There is far more. On an open scale of topics that need to be addressed Climate Change is ranging very much just above Zero!"

All intertwined - basic prob is overpopulation, plus profligate wastage of resources, and , and, and,  ............................ We should be addressing ALL.

"I think we can not stop the rain, we can not stop a storm (we proved that at CR4 just recently) which makes me think we should start working on the problems that are within our reach. We no need to tackle things that we barely understand"

We have a very good understanding of atmospheric CO2 and it's effects. Global warming was first postulated by Ahrennius in the late 1800's, he thought it would be a good thing to make Swedens winters more tolerable. He could not possibly have imagined that we are approaching a doubling of the 'pre civilisation' CO2 levels in just over 100 years. He anticipated 3,000 years for that.

"Start with what we understand and where we can act and know exactly what to do!"

I do. Have been doing what I can for nearly 40 years. I am directly carbon negative to the tune of about 10 tonnes per month. & my actual use of fossil fuels is the least I can get away with. Always looking for ways to reduce my CO2 footprint.

"I am dead sick of people that want to save the world and do not start with the urgent problems at hand."

You can say that again. Could you advise your asset value (+ friends) in case we follow your wishes and you are wrong, and we need liquidate you to finance cleaning up the mess.

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#139
In reply to #138

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/15/2014 9:10 PM

Thanks for sharing your experiences and opinions in a non ranting style.

No arguing that cleaner is nicer regardless of motive or beliefs. The AGW debate has not served the progress to cleaner energy and less waste very well.,,,seems to have hijacked the "cause" in my opinion.

Tell us more about your 10tonne/mth carbon negative footprint. How are you doing that?

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#140
In reply to #139

Re: Is Climate Change the Beginning of the End?

04/16/2014 4:33 AM

I manufacture a cooker I designed which uses as little as 1.8 kg of fuel instead of the normal method which uses approx 250kg.

We have 4 of these & cook every second or third day so that would be about 11 tonnes per month CO2 reduction.

Will be able to provide more info after I look after the IP side.

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