Is the U.S. in Recession?

Part of the problem is that it still hasn't dawned on the masses that new shows have devolved to just shows with little real news. They are hardly more informative than bad reality TV. There is no longer any notion of journalistic integrity and it has become all about selling the show at any cost. Sell ad time, that's all. Big money owns the media and it's just a show folks. The news is dead as far as mainstream media is concerned. The first amendment is effectively null and void because virtually all the mass channels of communication have been co-opted for the sole purpose of ratings and selling ads for crap we don't need. Crap to keep us distracted and complacent.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. The great Oz has spoken!

hero, I have to agree partly and disagree partly. We have not had 2 quarters of negative growth but the equations that define that have changed. The media and some "experts" voicing opinions that we probably already are does condition people and contribute to it actually happening.

An example is that if we measured inflation as we did 30 years ago headline inflation would be 11-12% (M3 money supply growth). But we don't so inflation is "under control." That is laughable to me.

Economies can expand and contract but they do not have to, they do in modern times because we follow the Keynesian philosophy and use a fiat money system. If we followed the Austrian (von Mises) philosophy it would not be as it today. The Federal Reserve Bank/System is parasitic, we do not need it, they need us, but we have been duped into thinking we need them just as we have been duped into thinking the United States of America was founded and is supposed to be a democracy.

Regards,

Skeptical Guy

What percentage of government involvement is required for a fascist market/economy to be defined?

Toomuchfun here!

Whether you wish to call the current economic a crisis, recession or a absolute out right depression likely depends on your financial station in our economic life. Workers and their families who are at the lower end of the pay scale, "I am talking about those who earn just a little more than the maximum that qualifies one for the govt. well fare programs up to the median income for the area you reside in will likely have differing points of view.

Our wonderful economic raters look at unemployment statistics at figures like 10.5% unemployed and believe that they have a firm estimate on the actual number of unemployed. Just a bad joke and an absolute lie to the working stiff who has lost his primary job and must now rely entirely on his "second" job for his only income, and cannot qualify for unemployment compensation. And no one really has a clue as to just how many self employed folks are even worse off, and they don't qualify for unemployment compensation, because as the owners of their own companies they are not considered as unemployed, even though they have no income at all.

When the economy degrades in the manner that it has recently the effects are long lasting. When the manufactured "petroleum shortage was laid upon us, the construction industry collapsed almost entirely. I personally was officially out of work for 1 1/2 years out of a two year span and ultimately was caused to leave my family behind in Florida and relocate to Beaumont Texas to find work. Not only did I find work, I found that those lucky folks in Texas never experienced a gasoline shortage nor suffered the experience of surviving the so called recession which was actually a real depression. Those petroleum folks were just building more Texas. Prior to the fuel shortage of the seventies, a well qualified carpenter could readily earn $12.50 per hour plus meager benefits in central Florida. When I returned to the same area of Florida after a 10 year hiatus, I found that I could hire carpenters of about the same skill level, all week long for $8.00 per hour with no benefits included at all, and pay them under the table if I chose to, dodging the requirement of SS and workers comp. contributions.

Highlands County, where I live here in sunny Florida, has already reached the depression stage for most of it's business owners and employees. For a period of about 3/4 years, the demand for new housing and commercial buildings was on the rise. The creative financing promoted by the lending industry not only made it possible for those at the lower end of the economic scale to get out of the slum rentals but get a nice home at an affordable price. "However the concept of an affordable price vanishes quickly when the bread winner becomes unemployed, and struggles to feed their family." I estimate that at least 50% of the construction work force has left this area seeking work elsewhere, and that includes the Contractors that migrated from the coastal areas, trying to find a nicer community in which to raise their families.

I shop for groceries for my family because I can make the time to do so. I therefore am well informed regarding the price of food. With the price of fuel reaching an all time high, I could still buy some products such as Idaho russet potatoes (seconds) a the local Walmart for a little under $5.50 for a 10 lb bag. Today that same 10 lb bag is priced at $6.47 and the bags are filled with mostly small culled sizes. This is just one example, as almost all prices have risen as the result of the high fuel costs. AND; today the price of gasoline locally has fallen to $2.129 per gallon down from $4.369 for the same grade of gasoline.

For about a month and a half I have witnessed fuel prices fall. Gasoline that cost $4.369 for regular grade, less than 8 weeks ago was priced yesterday at $2.129 per gallon for the same grade of fuel. This is the result of, for the most part, a poorly regulated commodities market system and flat out "GREED" ON BEHALF OF OPEC". And the price of food is still increasing. Go Figure!

I am a die hard Capitalist, but there are times that price controls must be implimented on products needed for the survival of the population, or the system fails and we will see more revolution and socialism, etc. world wide.

I believe that the single quickest way to halt the economic slide that we face today is for congress to pass legislation that contains "safety net thresholds" regarding the commodities that this nation needs for economic survival along with the steps to be taken to reverse these economic down turns. Temporary price controls are a necessary evil for this to work.

Today we should be implimenting a sort of WPA program that will push to the fore front of turning around this economic crisis. "I am talking about referbishing the interstate highway system that is both out dated and over used, and desperately in need of major repairs. This would require more steel products, concrete, paint, forming materials, etc. This list is just too long for presentation here. It also re-employs on sight and off site supervision and labor for the const. industry and all of the spin-off product producers needed to acomplish this task, and as the economy recovers, the spin off is unlimited regarding the disposable income produced and it's effects on the overall economy.

The livestock industry is culling and selling off stock vigorusly, prices to the producers are falling accordingly, yet the cost to feed out this stock is rising as the desire for mandated ethanol compeats with with the need for feed necessary to bring the over whelming quantity of supply to marketable quality.

You ask "Is the U.S. in a recession? Take a ride around the area that you live in. What do you see? Where I live, it's not a recession, It is clearly a depression.

Toomuchfun

I agree that the terminology needs to be adjusted and that Texas has been a major factor in the cause of the "recession". It seems to me that all recessions are "local" or regional and that the government should spend more time addressing "local" economies. Finally though, the investors in major funds speculating on oil profits are key players in this mess; I am told that the Middle East only supplies 15% of our crude oil.

I am told that the Middle East only supplies 15% of our crude oil.

For some the Saudi peninsula isn't within the boundaries of the middle east. It is southwest Asia.

One indicator I use of the health of our economy is the volume of equipment moved on highway trucks. Seems we're doing alright...

I don't know what kind of equipment you are referring to, but heavy construction equipment is shipped all around the U.S. as a leased item. When work stops on a construction site, and the equipment is sitting idle, for future intended use the leasor /leasee agreement is adjusted to acommodate the idle time. But when the work is stopped completely, this equipment is loaded and returned to the owner/seller as a repo item, and this happens regularly.

If you are refering to stationary equipment, this product is ordered way in advance of the need time to allow for time to build and maybe develop it for special uses. This kind of equipment will likely be shipped according to schedule in spite of a down terned economic situation.

Even the movement of cars and trucks are un reliable as dealers bankrupt and their stock is relocated. Production rates for durable goods is a good indicator. When back orders exist and extended wait times to deliver exist the economy is good. But if you order a new locomotive and the mfg. states that it can be delivered in record time and at a discounted price, you know that business isn't good for that producer.

TMF

Yeah.. Unfortunatly mainly for the 'Joes Minorities' struggling nationwide outdoors due bad low paying 'jobs' (Just on Broke Situation). Since so much 'spending budgets cuts' toward such poors sectors are been on target nationwide normally these folks are in a really bad shape outdoors to get out of the woods yet and without much hope on sigth, neither. The feeling is that the (700B+) packages will no going to reach such sectors at least for a good while. If reach it! I'm not beleive they will reach some of the leftovers after the party end up. Hopefully I'm wrong buddies!

Anyhow who will hold on 100 years punishment ? Got the point? The actual situation would need a whole overall refurbished booster honey from bottom up yesterday.

Who Know's what's cooking?

MC

An observer's notion of what is ordered, what is random, and what is complex in its environment depends directly on its computational resources: the amount of raw measurement data, of memory, and of time available for estimation and inference. The discovery of structure in an environment depends more critically and subtly, though, on how those resources are organized.

New equipment. Those with cash are in the market for a deal.

The US is in a period of transition, broaden you scope. Recognize, in early October our government initiated steps that will change our economic landscape forever. We are rolling into a fascist economy. Stop focusing on the lackadaisical motion and begin anticipating the result.

If Obama is going to bailout the big three "BUT" with limitations (ownership). What market share would the gov have or will it be called oversight.

The Free market idea got us in this mess in the first place, rules and regulations are needed to keep corperations from selling products to people who cannot afford them in the fisrt place.

The free market is a lofty ideal that only works in an ideal world, you know, one where there are no greedy people.

Unfortunately, that excludes us from using such ideal systems.

i suspect with the zillion millions of debt and the colapse of the money and housing market.

maybe yes?

Actually, much of our debt can be accounted for thru the costs associated with the cold war, money given away to less fortunate countries that never reached the poor of those nations and the real costs that result through the 1st, & 2nd world wars, korean conflict and the Vietnam Police action. The interest is still running up for those debts, but that is the price the U.S. public is paying for some resemblance of freedom that most of the world enjoys.

As for the housing market, just another creative financing gimmick gone wrong due to non existant government oversight.

And lets not forget petrol and the get rich quick investors. Anytime you can invest a few thousand dollars and control (same as ownership with out the materials handling expenses) hundreds of thousands of dollars of value of any product, petrol, natural gas, corn, soy beans, rice etc. the major funds controllers have the power to force prices at the consummer level to the very limit of affordablity. When just a few too many of these commodities reach the plateau of "no longer affordability, at the same time" the whole economy begins to collapse like dominoes and it will not stop with out significant intervention. The way to prevent this is for the rules to change. No more investing pennies to control dollars. Only when the risk of loosing real dollars in huge sums is brought to bare on the wreckless gamblers playing the market will stability exist for the economy.

As I stated before, the interstate highway system is in need of major repair and improvement. Creating funding for these costs will put people back to work and favorably impact the entire economy. And with the competition for the contracts for this work at an all time high, the public should be able to get this done at a much more reasonable cost to the tax payer.

TMF

For those who still think the "US Federal Reserve Bank" is a Governmental Entity, that is untrue.

The US Federal Reserve Bank is a totally Private Corporation, which creates debt for all US people at the stroke of a pen or computer key.

The "money" which the US Federal Reserve Bank prints, is entirely worthless, except for the value of the paper and ink.

A simple example follows, from: http://www.restoretherepublic.org/?p=58

First National Bank of Montgomery vs. Jerome Daly

February 4, 2005 | General

JUDGMENT AND DECREE

The above entitled action came on before the Court and a Jury of 12 on December 7, 1968 at 10:00 am. Plaintiff appeared by its President Lawrence V. Morgan and was represented by its Counsel, R. Mellby. Defendant appeared on his own behalf.

A Jury of Talesmen were called, impaneled and sworn to try the issues in the Case. Lawrence V. Morgan was the only witness called for Plaintiff and Defendant testified as the only witness in his own behalf.

Plaintiff brought this as a Common Law action for the recovery of the possession of Lot 19 Fairview Beach, Scott County, Minn. Plaintiff claimed title to the Real Property in question by foreclosure of a Note and Mortgage Deed dated May 8, 1964 which Plaintiff claimed was in default at the time foreclosure proceedings were started.

Defendant appeared and answered that the Plaintiff created the money and credit upon its own books by bookkeeping entry as the consideration for the Note and Mortgage of May 8, 1964 and alleged failure of the consideration for the Mortgage Deed and alleged that the Sheriff's sale passed no title to plaintiff.

The issues tried to the Jury were whether there was a lawful consideration and whether Defendant had waived his rights to complain about the consideration having paid on the Note for almost 3 years.

Mr. Morgan admitted that all of the money or credit which was used as a consideration was created upon their books, that this was standard banking practice exercised by their bank in combination with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, another private Bank, further that he knew of no United States Statute or Law that gave the Plaintiff the authority to do this. Plaintiff further claimed that Defendant by using the ledger book created credit and by paying on the Note and Mortgage waived any right to complain about the Consideration and that the Defendant was estopped from doing so.

At 12:15 on December 7, 1968 the Jury returned a unanimous verdict for the Defendant.

Now therefore, by virtue of the authority vested in me pursuant to the Declaration of Independence, the Northwest Ordinance of 1787, the Constitution of United States and the Constitution and the laws of the State of Minnesota not inconsistent therewith ;

BY THE COURT

Dated December 9, 1968

MEMORANDUM

The issues in this case were simple. There was no material dispute of the facts for the Jury to resolve.

Plaintiff admitted that it, in combination with the federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, which are for all practical purposes, because of their interlocking activity and practices, and both being Banking Institutions Incorporated under the Laws of the United States, are in the Law to be treated as one and the same Bank, did create the entire $14,000.00 in money or credit upon its own books by bookkeeping entry. That this was the Consideration used to support the Note dated May 8, 1964 and the Mortgage of the same date. The money and credit first came into existence when they created it. Mr. Morgan admitted that no United States Law Statute existed which gave him the right to do this. A lawful consideration must exist and be tendered to support the Note. See Ansheuser-Busch Brewing Company v. Emma Mason, 44 Minn. 318, 46 N.W. 558. The Jury found that there was no consideration and I agree. Only God can create something of value out of nothing.

Even if Defendant could be charged with waiver or estoppel as a matter of Law this is no defense to the Plaintiff. The Law leaves wrongdoers where it finds them. See sections 50, 51 and 52 of Am Jur 2nd "Actions" on page 584 - "no action will lie to recover on a claim based upon, or in any manner depending upon, a fraudulent, illegal, or immoral transaction or contract to which Plaintiff was a party."

Plaintiff's act of creating credit is not authorized by the Constitution and Laws of the United States, is unconstitutional and void, and is not a lawful consideration in the eyes of the Law to support any thing or upon which any lawful right can be built.

Nothing in the Constitution of the United States limits the jurisdiction of this Court, which is one of original Jurisdiction with right of trial by Jury guaranteed. This is a Common Law action. Minnesota cannot limit or impair the power of this Court to render Complete Justice between the parties. Any provisions in the Constitution and laws of Minnesota which attempt to do so is repugnant to the Constitution of the United States and void. No question as to the Jurisdiction of this Court was raised by either party at the trial. Both parties were given complete liberty to submit any and all facts to the Jury, at least in so far as they saw fit.

No complaint was made by Plaintiff that Plaintiff did not receive a fair trial. From the admissions made by Mr. Morgan the path of duty was direct and clear for the Jury. Their Verdict could not reasonably been otherwise. Justice was rendered completely and without denial, promptly and without delay, freely and without purchase, conformable to the laws in this Court of December 7, 1968.

BY THE COURT

December 9, 1968

Note: It has never been doubted that a Note given on a Consideration which is prohibited by law is void. It has been determined, independent of Acts of Congress, that sailing under the license of an enemy is illegal. The emission of Bills of Credit upon the books of these private Corporations for the purpose of private gain is not warranted by the Constitution of the United States and is unlawful. See Craig v. Mo. 4 Peters Reports 912. This Court can tread only that path which is marked out by duty. M.V.M.

JEROME DALY had his own information to reveal about this case, which establishes that between his own revealed information and the fact that Justice Martin V. Mahoney was murdered 6 months after he entered the Credit River Decision on the books of the Court, why the case was never legally overturned, nor can it be.....">

A good DVD set to find out more: http://www.themoneymasters.com/

Read "Fourth Reich of the Rich", (The Missing Dimension in World Affairs) by Des Griffen, http://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Reich-Rich-Griffin/dp/0941380068

It's not just the US folks, all Countries with a Central Bank are in the same situation.

Kind Regards....

Careful you dig too deep and someone will find out who financed J. Stalin's project...

Geeehhhhh..! Do sounds like a huge 'Monopoly' out of control then. Way too much to track it down definetly. And kind of spooky too as well, absolutly. Good point all, nice data always here at CR-4 Techno Mall. Always something very interesting to learn around here.

A whole bunch of dollars are been mis-directed somewhere else which weakened the whole thing belly-up apparently. But I guess is not for everyone though, since there been always a tremendous wealth unbalances worldwide for long since biblical times back then too. Corruptions-Abuses you mention it! Unbelievable! Hard to believe it absolutly, too much. Oh Brotherrrrrss.........

Now, these days almost same thing again but with more $ signs than ever before in history. -Show me the Money- Where's the Filling? - No Money No Honeyyyyyy!!!!

Wall Street Time,

MC

From my perspective, it would appear that we, all of us, governments and private citizens, have been spending tomorrow's money for too long. I do not believe that creating mechanisms for making more easy credit available is going to solve the problem. Someday, somehow, someone is going to have to pay...

The renting of money, that is renting "VALUE" based on your assumed ability to "PAY THE RENT" is no different than renting any thing else. However, there always comes the time to balance the mounting debt that builds so quickly and easily. We have come to the age of "computer everything" much faster than the population in general can even comprehend much less control or even adjust to.

In general, today's middle school aged students are light years ahead of their parents when it comes to the comprehension and use of the personal computer. Cell phones have evolved from being a method of communication to a "can't live with out it" source of entertainment. Black berries, an edible fruit, that grows on a thorny briar, are no longer edible at all, and it doesn't matter to the student that mom and dad are struggling to buy food, clothing and pay the ever rising utility bills, the health insurance, etc. and still provide a home for these ingrates, they simply cannot survive unless they have all of the latest fad gadgets. In some locals in this nation, even today, the price of the fruity gadget, may exceed the price for rent for the whole family for a month. Rarely are children caused to understand that their "I simply cannot live with out it's" are a major problem for mom and dad, not just an inconvenient issue. These kinds of expenses are generally purchased with credit. The $400.00 / $600.00 gadgets also attract such parasites as interest payments and late fees, when it comes to paying the copay to the Doctor or credit card. I personally get a bit un-nerved when I see one of these "I can't live without it's" tossing the hand held "communicate with the whole world devices" that mom and dad couldn't afford to begin with any way, being tossed around like a piece of hard candy.

Unfortunately, society surviving to day, for the most part has not been caused to learn that some day the vultures will come home to roost. All of those gizmos and gadgets that were just a continuing to improve fad week after week, month after month and year after year have been accruing ever increasing interest that the vultures want "NOW" OR THEY ARE GOING TO CRAP ALL OVER THE REMAINDER OF YOUR LIFE." It's called a bad credit report, and it will haunt you for the rest of your life like an ugly tatoo on your forhead. Thanks a lot junior.

But look at it like this, the robots that are used to manufacture all of these outregeously over priced gizmos are preventing the children of parts of Asia and especially countries like China, Vietnam, Cambodia Etc from being over worked child laborers.

Unique don't you think! Here we are, having to satisfy our spoiled children just so the children of the third world will have jobs to go to instead of going to school or for heavens sake wasteing time playing.

TMF

Were you aware that having NO credit record was worse than having a bad credit record?

I happen to be a retired general contractor. There is nothing that I do not know about credit. I do not have a personal credit card. I gave those up years ago. I function only through the use of cash, checks, Postal Money Orders, and Debit/credit cards associated with trust accounts. I don't even have a personal checking or savings account. I keep my personal financial info out of reach from anyone or any entity that might like to get to my money. Think about that and ask yourself, is your money and personal info secure from the prying eyes of Govt. and anyone else.

It isn't impossible to screw up my credit, if you are a thief desiring to do so, but it is a lot easier to straighten out the matter for me. I simply sue the companies that say that they issued me credit that I did not request in the first place. I can assure you that they will get it fixed quickly.

TMF

Gee, sounds rough guy. If you hurry you may still be able to take them to Nebraska.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4531425n

I didn't rear mine that way. They are all grown and raising their children in a responsible manner, much like they experienced growing up. Mine understood from early on that drug abuse was the road to a dead end life. Cocktails were to be enjoyed not over done. The several decades of child rearing I am referring to all seemed to begin for the most part when the Great Dr. Spock published "Don't Spank Johnny". And what did that produce?

The Hippy generation, then the Flower Children, the Yuppys, and now the X generation. The new math concept is a dismal failure, as most children cannot function without a calculator. Go figure.

Another responder mentioned that we are heading towards "an alternative Government". More likely revolution first. As for the government, well that will be decided by those who prevail.

Nations have always been divided politically, country folks, city folks, small town, vs huge metropolises, those earning their living in factories vs those who are merchants and so on. Only the bill of rights offers any balance to regarding how each is treated and unfortunately the Legal Profession has been hard at work destroying that for almost as long as it has existed.

And now we seem to be coming full circle, first huge get rich schemes in the stock market, resulting in huge down terns, eroding retirement funds, prices falling like a heavy rock, jobs being eliminated, massive unemployment on the horison, and more crime as the result.

If it sounds like I have a dismal attitude, "not so at all" I have prepared for this, and I'll just tighten my belt a little and keep my trusty rifle at the ready. I too old to go to war but not to defend my home.

I have made my opinion very clear. In the least effected areas of this nation one might get away with calling the present economy a ressession. If you are employed by Govt. you will likely do well.

However; if you live else where, you are looking at depression, now for some or very soon for others.

This is not wishful thinking, only a description of what I see from here. And I seem to have read somewhere that Spock has a different point of view regarding how to raise children now. Go Figure!

TMF

Toomuchfun,

Whoa up there sport indulge a short read of insight from John Mauldin

Good evening Bwire,

I've fairly wide spread back ground knowledge in world politics, wars, both ancient and recent, and from my perspective I have believed that like it or not we are moving towards a world economy, as opposed to national or continental economies. For years the status of the middle class workers in this nation has been eroding when compared to the same group in Europe. In the middle East, that is the Arabic nations have been increasing in population way beyond their cultivatable land can support. Petroleum's influence has made this possible. However when ever this sort of thing has happened in the past, history shows that war results and when enough of the populations have been killed off, societies begin again. Forgive and forget.

What do you think of the back door thoughts of Ann Rand on this matter. I am refering to Atlas Shruged. Was she refering to the good ole U.S. of A. or a Worlg Government.

TMF

Forgive the typos, I am rushing off to feed my live stock. I am prepareing for the hard times that may come my way.

Hello,

I have not read the book but an essay. Yes it reads as a world government. Curiously not unlike our current world in many aspects.