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Probability

10/13/2008 10:07 AM

I have to give my dog medicine twice a day. She is a small dog so the dosage is 1/2 a pill AM and 1/2 PM. If I open a new bottle of 100 pills and break one, put the 1/2 back in the bottle, when does it change to be more likely to get a 1/2 pill than a whole pill. I think it is random whether I get a whole or half as I don't consciencly take a whole or a half each time, although I guess the half pills are closer to the top of the bottle. In other words I just shake a few pills into my hand grab one, put the others back. If the one I kept is 1/2 I put it in her food, if it is whole, I break it in half, give half and put the other half back in the bottle. I may not be smart enough to ask this question let alone read the answer. This is just what I thought would be a fun question, not homework, not important, just asking for the sake of asking. -- JHF

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#1

Re: Probability

10/13/2008 10:20 AM

Here we go. A half a pill is smaller and shaped with a straight edge, as all the other pills will be completely round. My thoughts are that this will cause the half a pill to fall to the bottom when you shake the bottle. all the round edges will push the full tablets to the top.

My estimate is that you will break about 66% of the full tablets before you see a significant number of half tables come out with any given shape.

Again my thoughts are based more on the shape then the math.

don't forget that 73.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

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#14
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Re: Probability

10/14/2008 11:25 AM

As I mentioned, I may not be smart enough to ask the question. You have pointed out a factor I didn't think of - shape. The pills are a flattened (American) football shape with a score mark in the middle so when I break one it is almost triangular and even the whole pills don't roll like a round pill would.

Other posters mentioned shaking. I don't really shake the bottle to thoughrly mix them, just enough to get as few as possible out of the bottle without spilling them all over, so that, too, will change things.

I think the main thing the answers have pointed out is the importance of getting qualified help when working outside your normal area of expertise. If this had been important, winging it could have been dangerous. I will keep this in mind on important project questions. -- JHF

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#15
In reply to #14

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 12:20 PM

I doubt many people get (or deserve) a GA vote for a reply to their own thread, but that last paragraph of yours was insightful enough to rate one from me!

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#18
In reply to #14

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 10:40 PM

"The pills are a flattened (American) football shape"

Wrong shape to start with... i mean american football

Just joking.

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#35
In reply to #1

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 9:18 AM

<....don't forget that 73.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.....>

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#2

Re: Probability

10/13/2008 10:21 AM

This is a geometric progression, and I'm not going to formulate the thing, but I will start you in the right direction . . .

When you have broken one in half and put the unused half back in the bottle, you (mathematically) have one chance in 100 of getting the half pill. If you take out another whole pill, return the other half back to the bottle, the next time you get a pill, you will have 2 chances in 100 of getting a half pill, and so forth and so on. This will continue to be the case until you have broken all the whole pills in two.

Looking at it from the other side, once you have one half pill in the bottle, you will have one chance in 99 of getting another whole pill. After the second whole pill has been broken, the other half returned to the bottle, the next time you will have 1 chance in 98 of getting a whole pill, etc.

The odds of getting a half pill at any time will increase with time, but the odds have a limit which has to be included in the formulation of a mathematical expression to describe odds of getting a half or whole pill. Also, the dimensions of the bottle and pills would have to be considered, as well as the disturbance to the arrangement of half and whole pills each time the bottle is shaken to get one.

Not an easy modeling job . . .

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#7
In reply to #2

Re: Probability

10/13/2008 11:33 PM

Wouldn't it be a h-ll of a lot easier to work with 2 bottles ?

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#36
In reply to #7

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 9:21 AM

Rumour has it that the KrisDelTM corporation is coming up with a suitable product just now....

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#38
In reply to #36

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 9:55 AM

Shhh...industrial espionage at work...the amazing TUBE BOTTLE! <whatta ya mean "two bottle" 'e said "tube bottle" quite clearly!>

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#43
In reply to #38

Re: Probability

10/16/2008 2:13 AM

Isn't that how Ceaser died ? "Ate tube, Brute".

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#45
In reply to #43

A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 3:21 AM

Hello Kris

If you delve into history, you should discover that Julius Caesar was a man of epicurean tastes, and the common knowledge of the day was that he was very fond of bivalves belonging to the belonging to the family Ostreidae, because of their reputed late evening effects, which special particulars cannot be mentioned here in case those of tender years read this explanatory Post.

It was while Julius was still at the dining table, having already consumed several of the molluscs, that his friend Brutus needed personal advice for his own self later that same night.

The reply has gone into history, most often having been misquoted, because the scribe of the day was somewhat hard of hearing, had mislaid his ear trumpet because he was drunk and had fallen under the table.

What Julius said was: "Eat two, Brutus". (Referring to the quantity of the delectable bivalves necessary to get the desired results).

I trust I have cleared up this quite common misconception.

Kind Regards....

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#46
In reply to #45

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 5:22 AM

It's good, but I've yet to hear a decent explanation of how he invented salad.

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#47
In reply to #46

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 5:41 AM

Hello Kris

I'm off for the night, have to sleep in the knife drawer, to get sharpened up for tomorrow.

Then I shall research the origin of the salad.

Kind Regards....

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#48
In reply to #47

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 6:47 AM

I'm sure they used to sell polystyrene pyramids for that kind of thing. Sharpen up blades/stop food decaying etc etc . It must be true, I read it in a book !

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#49
In reply to #48

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 7:09 AM

That whole pyramid "thing" was started by an April fool article by Martin Gardner in Scientific American.

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 7:43 AM

Apparently someone forgot to inform the illiterati...

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#56
In reply to #49

Re: A Common Misconception

10/17/2008 3:56 AM

Yes, but Eric von Daniken (might have been Lyall Watson) reported it in a book, so it must be true !

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#51
In reply to #48

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 8:21 AM

It's true, it's true! It's under the heading "Veni, Vidi, Visa"...........

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#52
In reply to #51

Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 11:25 AM

Wot? I came, I saw, I charged it?

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#53
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Re: A Common Misconception

10/16/2008 11:37 AM

Not! I came, I saw, I bought it! as in.... 'got suckered'.............

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#58
In reply to #46

Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/30/2008 5:40 PM

Hello Kris

I have completed my research into the origin of the term "Caesar Salad", and apologize for taking some time to advise of the result.

I understand you are a person of some erudition, so of course you know that "Caesar" is correctly pronounced in the Latin language as the word "Kaiser".

The term actually originated right here in New Zealand, long before the Dutch explorer Abel Tasman sighted these beautiful shores.

A ship from the land of Boadicea was wrecked upon a rocky shore near where Christchurch is located today, and the local natives, Maori folk were pleased to see the fresh supplies of food arrive.

A feast was held with the survivors of the wreck attending, and the hangi pit was opened, leaves and vegetation lifted, and the delicious aroma of the cooked food wafted into the night air.

The maori chief said to the final survivor of the wreck, the ship's captain: "Kai Sir, is a lad", referring to the cooked body of the ship's boy lying at the top of the hangi pit.

At this point the ship's captain took to his proverbial scrapers, escaped the search party, stole a maori canoe, and sailed it to India, where he recovered his health after several months.

Eventually he was returned to the land of Boadicea, via Italy, where he told his story every day in a local hospitium.

So that's the origin of the term Caesar Salad.

Maori:

Hangi Pit

Kai = Maori term for food, which is traditionally gathered from the seaside and land.

Note: As I realize you understand Latin I give you the rough Latin version below:

Abyssus Kris

EGO have universa meus research in satus of term Caesar Salad ", quod apologize pro captus dudum monere of praecessi.

EGO agnosco vos es a alio of nonnullus erudition , sic nimirum vos teneo ut Caesar " est rectus denuntio in Latin lingua ut vox Kaiser ".

Term vere emanio vox hic in Novus Studium , porro pro Dutch rimor Abel Tasman os illa decorus brevis.

A traba ex terra of Boadicea eram pessum do super a petrosus brevis near qua Christchurch est locus hodie , quod locus paternus Maori folk erant commodo video vidi visum vegetus victualia of victus supervenio.

A epulum eram held per superstes of pessum do sequax , quod pensilis vorago eram patefacio , coma quod vegetation levo , quod esculentus aroma of crustulum victus wafted in nox noctis aer.

Maori presertim said ut denique superstes of pessum do , traba caput : Kai Sir , est a pusio referring ut crustulum somes of traba puer falsidicus primoris of pensilis vorago.

Procul is cuspis traba caput took ut suus proverbial scrapers , subterlabor quaero secui , pallium a maori canonus , quod sailed is ut India , qua is revoco suus valetudo secundum plures mensis.

Eventually is eram reverto ut terra of Boadicea via Italy , qua is told suus fabula cotidie in a locus hospitium.

Sic ut satus of term Caesar Salad.

Maori: Pensilis Vorago Kai Maori term pro victus , quod est traditionally recolligo ex seaside quod terra.

I trust you now have a better understanding of that term.

Kind Regards....

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#59
In reply to #58

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:00 AM

ROFL ! IT certainly pays to keep subscribed to dwindling threads

Your fantastic elaboration has stirred even more thought's in my mind.........The Russian Tsar (or Czar, if you like) clearly had some involvement in salad, though why anyone would want salad in those climes escapes me.......At least half of your countrymen must have been involved in the development of 'Pig Latin', which half depending upon where you live (so I'm told)......Your near neighbour on Magnetic Island, CR4's very own Kai, has seemingly fallen victim..........A salad Palace exists in Las Vegas............

There seems to be no end to this international conspiracy !!! None of this will confuse us Brits, proper salad will be coated in lashing of this ;

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#60
In reply to #59

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 7:24 AM

OMG! When there are so many better choices available! How sad...

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#61
In reply to #60

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 8:16 AM

That has a suspiciously pale colour ???? Are you sure it's not mayo ? The proper stuff should be bright yellow, the same as our famed Brit custard. Many British pubs carry emergency rations, helpfully colour coded, to aid the thirsty drinker who get's a sudden urge for a hit of proper salad cream ;

You just tear the end off, and suck it down. Honest !

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#63
In reply to #61

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 11:14 AM

Salad cream? Wot? Picky, picky, picky! How's these?

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#64
In reply to #61

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 1:04 PM

There's Wish-Bone dressings, too, from the UK:

Unilever House, Blackfriars
London EC4P 4BQ
United Kingdom
Phone+44-20-7822-5252

(in case you prefer summat not imported from the colonies...)

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#67
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 1:43 PM
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#72
In reply to #67

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:29 PM

"...decidedly strange..."

Y'all specialize in decidedly strange though, don't you? After all, Wish-Bone is a UK enterprise of Unilever, right?

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#76
In reply to #72

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:48 PM

Right now it's pretty unclear who owns anything, especially when it comes to UK banks ! Anglo-Dutch companies sprawl everywhere. Probably all traces back to our respective East India companies, maybe even Billy of the Boyne. Hard to say.....

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#78
In reply to #76

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 5:02 PM

Glorious, even though revolting! I suppose that would explain the orange sauce, but not the plum, which is silly - plum silly...

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#80
In reply to #78

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 5:13 PM

Howzabout Hoisin then ?

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#83
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/02/2008 8:15 PM
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#84
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/03/2008 5:27 AM

The Pigeon brand of fish sauce sounds a bit odd !

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#85
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/04/2008 6:05 AM

As if it can't decide whether to be fish or fowl, eh?

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#86
In reply to #85

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/04/2008 1:54 PM

Hey, new pic ! Wont it get warm by the time they have the Florida re-count ?

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#87
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/04/2008 5:03 PM

Nah. I'm voting for "none of the above" anyway, so it won't matter to me. New tag line to go with the new pic - my own tradition - they change with every 1K posts.

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#88
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/05/2008 4:40 AM

....How come the picture ain't flickering then ?

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#89
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/05/2008 7:25 AM

You mean like this?

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#90
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/05/2008 8:12 AM

Those things can drive you nuts.

The pair I have communicate by hammering on the metal chimney....and always at the crack of dawn.

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#91
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/05/2008 8:22 AM

Better than any rooster, huh?!? We have them here, too, but our morning noisemakers are a pair of pileated woodpeckers that hammer on a big pine tree. Being that they are about the size of a crow, they hammer pretty loud...

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#92
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/05/2008 11:51 AM

I just found this 'recent' bit of news . Is it the same fish, they look similar ? Finding the Dodo would be cool - We Brits always have Turkey at Christmas, and I feel like a change.

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#93
In reply to #92

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/05/2008 6:24 PM

Not the same - the ivory-billed is half again or twice the size of a pileated - although they do share similar coloration. The ivory has more white feathers showing, however. I doubt you'd get the Mauritians to share a dodo with you even did they find they still had one. But as it was a pigeon, squab should be an adequate substitute. Say, didn't we discuss consuming squab before in another thread? If I could get it, I think I'd rather a nice...

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#94
In reply to #93

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 2:47 AM

I didn't know the Dodo was a Pigeon - my compensation is reading that it's name may be derived from 'plump-arse' !! Poor critter didn't stand a chance really, they may as well have named it 'succulent' !

Squabs were on the menu somewhere (Challenge Question), as were Haggii (the long-lost ER was bemoaning the unavailability of gluten-free Haggis). Maybe KrisDel Labs could invent some sort of Haggis-powder to get past border control - sort of 'add hot water, stir, enjoy'. Cupasoup ain't gone there yet.

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#95
In reply to #94

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 6:13 AM

Instant haggis?!? Sacrilege, sir! Besides, if such a faux foodstuff is ever invented, EM/ER NA® will produce it! Won't be gluten-free, though, I doubt that's even possible, considering what it's made from. Caffeine-free coffee is simple by comparison. So's calorie-free sugar. A gluten-free haggis would be more like legume-free peanut butter or dehydrated water - add water and stir, chill, and drink...

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#96
In reply to #95

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 6:28 AM

Back when ER asked, I eventually dug up some gluten-free monstrosity & even some Haggis in a can ! Yuck .

legume-free peanut butter or dehydrated water

ROFL ! I want a left-handed screwdriver , but I'm busy trying to source a bag of MoralTM Fibre .

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#97
In reply to #96

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 7:28 AM

Moral Fiber - I understand it is best when fried in relative bearing grease to a nice crispy texture... But canned haggis?

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#98
In reply to #97

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 12:34 PM

I refuse to give any of them free publicity - just look at the shape . It looks like some type of dog food ;

There isn't much you can't get in a can....

(The last one is Korean )

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#99
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 12:53 PM

101 ways to wok your dog, eh? Mmm-mmm-mmm, filling!

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#100
In reply to #99

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 2:39 PM

Kris is pulling your leg here! Cesar is a well known type of dog food in this country.

I think we should threaten him a bit:-

http://wildmountainfoods.blogspot.com/2008/06/crock-pot-squirrel-recipe-and-more.html

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#101
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 4:02 PM

We have that dog food here, too, so I recognized it. Besides, I'm more or less used to his sense of (what passes for) humor. 'Round here, we tend to prefer our squirrel pan-fried with grits (polenta to the educated) and sawmill gravy. I guess crock-potting would be OK for a tough old boar, tho'!

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#103
In reply to #101

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 5:54 PM

There's more.....

....and especially for you....., just heat.

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#104
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/07/2008 6:04 AM

Sure is...

http://www.sizzlersranch.com/rattlesnake-meat-sale

Here's a vendor in the UK...

http://www.shop.osgrowonline.co.uk/

They even have canned eland! Wouldn't necessarily want to eat it, but the name rolls trippingly off the tongue.

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#105
In reply to #104

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/07/2008 11:49 AM

Cool ! It must coil up nicely in the can

At least Christopher Lee just got burned, poor old Brit.......

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#106
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/07/2008 12:20 PM

Lee is said to have had more recorded sword fights than any other actor in history. He buckled his swash better than Errol Flynn, John Barrymore, and Guy Williams combined! En garde...

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#102
In reply to #100

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

11/06/2008 5:42 PM

That's done it - I wont let Hopkirk visit you any more !

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#65
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 1:36 PM

You might enjoy Miracle Whip, just for the name alone, unfortunately, the time for that has passed...

Miracle Whip was sold briefly in the United Kingdom from around January 2006 to April 2007; this supply was imported by national supermarket chain Tesco from Kraft Foods Germany; it was not marketed by Kraft Foods UK at the time.

Maybe Andy Germany can assist you with an import over the Channel under the table.

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#66
In reply to #65

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 1:38 PM

Miracle Whip sucks! Real mayo or nothing.

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#73
In reply to #66

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:31 PM

Might want to run that past these guys...

http://www.mayoclinic.com/

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#68
In reply to #65

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 1:52 PM

We used to get Instant Whip, but it didn't really taste right on lettuce.

It's pretty hard to avoid Tesco in the UK. They have funny little garages inside, for parking the trolly while you grab an apre-shop coffee. They look just the right size for noisome children !

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#62
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 9:26 AM

Forget it man.......video vidi visum vegetus victualia of victus supervenio.... the Russkis couldn't come up with a better vinaigrette than this. Accordingly, England is sunk under the weight of its own lexiconic dressing!

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#69
In reply to #62

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 1:59 PM

Talking of dressings, Orange or Plum ?

Check these people out !

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#70
In reply to #69

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 3:59 PM

But do they even eat salads?

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#71
In reply to #70

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:29 PM

Only if long-pork is in short supply.

Brit salad consists of flaccid lettuce, tomato (optional), and radishes (cut in half, zig-zag fashion). For special feasts we do cheese & pineapple hedgehogs;

I've no idea how we got here from probability, but it has at least reminded me that it's med-time !

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#74
In reply to #71

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:35 PM

I guess the probability of there being cheese-and-pineapple hedgehogs at a special feast in the UK is a lame segue, but I'm willing to work with it...

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#79
In reply to #74

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 5:09 PM

....well, given the impossibility of sticking the spines in with an even distribution, you have to calculate how to approach it with optimum chance of grabbing a spine....s'pose it depends how carefully the host constructed it. I'd suggest filming it's devourment, and plotting the disappearance of each spine onto a hemispherical projection net. Analyzing the data could be invaluable at future knees-ups.

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#75
In reply to #69

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 4:46 PM

Wow! Fascinating story!

The book 'The Lost Amazon' by Wade Davis is a worthwhile read.

Alas I'm blessed with a commune of utopists next 'bush' farm over to me....they speak "it's all about me" speak.

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#77
In reply to #75

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 5:01 PM

Davis' book sounds familiar, I'll look it up sometime. When it first came out, The Tribe that Hides From Man (documentary, 60's/70's) was a big 'wow'.

I bet the commune takes from the outside world when it suits 'em. A kinda flexible moral superiority usually occurs in those kind of things.

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#81
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Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 5:31 PM

Add to that a flexible spiritual bankruptcy and that just about sez it all....and yep.....good at taking, hopeless at giving. We're forever feeding their starving kids.

Interesting read Lost Amazon. Also your own Margaret Mee (an artist)has some interesting views.

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#82
In reply to #81

Re: Caesar Salad: Origin of the Term

10/31/2008 5:58 PM

That was cleverly lunked ! Nice art - she was connected to some curious people (Blunt etc).

Wuz only jokin' about the Hoisin sauce

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#54
In reply to #43

Re: Probability

10/16/2008 1:27 PM

This reminds me of another story.

Hamlet was actually a plumber. One day he ran out of pipe in the middle of an impotant job, and his supplier didn't have the right size. While considering his options, he pondered, "Tube or not tube?"

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#55
In reply to #54

Re: Probability

10/16/2008 3:58 PM

OK, the probability of this thread going right down the tubes just hit unity...

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#3

Re: Probability

10/13/2008 10:22 AM

I think the ½ pills being smaller will find their way to the bottom of the bottle through the interstices between the larger whole pills.

I can't be bothered with anysort of statistical analysis, 'cos knowing my mathematical expertise I'd doubtless get it wrong.

Del

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#4
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Re: Probability

10/13/2008 1:02 PM

I'm not so sure about the movement of pills. If I had some sugar lumps I'd drop them in a bowl of granulated sugar and find out. Testing the problem as a whole is tempting, but it wasn't stated how many pills are shaken out each time.

This must be one of those times mother warned me about ; I've lost me clothes, you've overtaken me in postings, I don't know what 'interstices' means, Strictly Dancing isn't on tonight.................feels like being kicked in the intersticles......wha wha wha.......

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#5

Re: Probability

10/13/2008 7:54 PM

Hello Circuit Breaker

It depends on the shape and size of the pill bottle, the direction of the shaking (up/down and/or swirl), the vigorousness of the shaking, the number of decreasing pills/half pills, along with the amount of space in the pill bottle above the ever-decreasing pills/half pills.

No doubt a formula could be worked out, to cover the variables, but not by me today.

Your question shows the difficulty in establishing accurate replies, with so many variables.

Kind Regards....

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#6

Re: Probability

10/13/2008 10:18 PM

I'm helping my mother prepare for cataract surgery by administering 1/2 pill each day for high blood pressure. Yet the probability for me to pull one 1/2 pill out of the bottle is 0. I will explain later in due time.

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#8

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 7:29 AM

Why is everybody off on a tangent - its a math problem!

Let w be the number of whole pills, h the number of half pills. The probability of drawing a half pill is (h/(h+w)), the probability of drawing a whole pill is (w/(h+w)). If you draw a whole pill, w decreases by 1, h increases by 1. If you draw a half pill, h decreases by 1. In other words, w decreases by one if you draw a whole pill. h increases by 1 if you draw a whole pill and decreases by 1 if you draw a half pill.

2 differential equations:

dw/dt = (w/(h+w))

dh/dt = -(w/(h+w)) + (h/(h+w))

I wrote a C function and it turns out that after about 90 times the probability rises to 1/2 that you get 1/2 a pill.

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#9
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Re: Probability

10/14/2008 8:00 AM

But it isn't strictly mathematical is it? I think the replies that indicated the shape and size would influence the likelihood of getting a whole or half pill are correct. Without these fudge factors, you'd be correct, but with them, I think it is a whole lot more complex. In fact, I doubt it could be described by an equation. Even chaos theory has its limits...

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#13
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Re: Probability

10/14/2008 9:25 AM

Agreed. Half of a round pill will behave differently than half of an oval pill. Pills in a tall narrow container will behave differently than if they are in a short fat one. If you tip the container and there is a half pill on top, will it roll over the others, or will the flat edge prevent it from moving? There are just too many variables.

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#10

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 8:17 AM

If you buy a pill splitter you can accurately split the pills in half and then keep the second half in the splitter until needed. That way your chances of retrieving the half pill are 1:1, or 100%.

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#11
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Re: Probability

10/14/2008 8:33 AM

Yepper - just be sure you don't go overboard on that splitter...

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#12

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 8:46 AM

You could break all the pills in-half and then you don't have to worry what comes out of the bottle.

mechtech

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#16

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 1:12 PM

Most of you are right. This has nothing to do with statistics (at least that with random numbers) because the basic assumption of all events with equal probability do not hold true here.

Has any one tried to work with soil ? as these are shaken, the smaller particles move down and progressively larger ones move up, this has more to do with the packing. thus the probability of the large one rolling up is almost 1 till may be almost all are halved.

No mathematics here and the dynamics here is too complex. may be a physics thesis will help.

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#17

Re: Probability

10/14/2008 7:04 PM

This is actually a chaos fractal with a normal probability.

You take a pill (start, bottle full) X number of pills. You split one, place the half pill in the bottle, the total number of units has not changed. The first problem is that in removing 1 pill splitting it in half then placing in back in the full # of units has not changed. However, the second series can bring up a half pill or a full pill. If half pill then the system has been reduced by 1 unit. If full pill is pulled, split in half, then half place back into the bottle the total number of units has not changed. The total number in the bottle is a variable patterned upon the past sequence loop. Two conditions.

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#20
In reply to #17

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 2:25 AM

Well that's cleared it up

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#21
In reply to #20

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 6:17 AM

Yes, two loops - although what that has to do with pills is still unclear. They are pretty though...

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#22
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Re: Probability

10/15/2008 6:20 AM

Even I am groaning at that !

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#23
In reply to #21

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 6:33 AM

Nevr seen two lipped two loops before..........is that anything like a too looped twolip?

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#24
In reply to #23

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 6:42 AM

I guess it was inevitable this would crop up...........

..........you have us all at a disadvantage Ducky.

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#26
In reply to #24

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 7:05 AM

Distinctly so...

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#27
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Re: Probability

10/15/2008 7:07 AM

Indeed...........

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#28
In reply to #27

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 7:12 AM

Hello Kris

More a case of this

Kind Regards....

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#30
In reply to #28

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 7:31 AM

....and unlike wotsit tape, it works in space !

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#34
In reply to #24

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 8:44 AM

As does the latest fashion from the UK for men to be wearing......gasp;.....dare I say it;......giggle........*panty hose*.........!

ps...not to stretch a point but it is making international headlines

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#44
In reply to #34

Re: Probability

10/16/2008 2:23 AM

Pah ! I have it on good authority that in the Americas grown men stride around in pants.

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#25
In reply to #23

Re: Probability High

10/15/2008 7:02 AM

Seems almost congruent in concept...

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#19

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 2:04 AM

Ignoring the mechanical aspects of the problem, which I think is in the original spirit of the question. I'm not sure about this but I think you can model the situation by allowing the removal of part whole and part half pills. In other words say for example you had 60 whole pills left and 30 half pills then the next day you would have 59 and a third whole pills, and, 30 minus a third plus two thirds half pills (30 and a third):-

The equation in B3 is =B2-B2/(B2+C2) , and, in C3 is =C2+(B2-B3)-C2/(B2+C2)

Just copy the equations down for the 200 days. As guest said at post #8 the probability of getting a half pill rises above half at day 90

8738.0127536.97451
8837.5058236.98835
8937.0023536.9953
9036.502336.99539
9136.0056636.98868
9235.5123936.97522
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#31
In reply to #19

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 7:53 AM

One could use your formula for calculating the odds of an investment banker jumping off his ivory tower and landing on a taxpayer.

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#32
In reply to #31

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 7:59 AM

Much as I'd like to lend a helping push ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_parachute

It's true....**** bounces

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#33
In reply to #32

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 8:11 AM

Even if the chute didn't open they'd still be under silk.....!

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#37
In reply to #33

Re: Probability

10/15/2008 9:50 AM

Silk like this?

I hear it's stylish these days in the UK...

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