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Credible UFO Testimony

12/30/2010 8:02 AM

I have a neighbor that is obsessed with everything pertaining to UFOs, that sent me this link. I know this isn't a UFO forum, but I've watched about half of the first part, and it's pretty interesting. It's long, but all witnesses are either former military or civilian pilots or controllers. Thought that, as engineers, some of you guys might be interested in what's being said. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud49Gh9yYLs&amp;feature=channel

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#67
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 1:23 PM

Well,

When you have 4, 6, 11 and 88 year old children living with you, it is sometimes the only quiet time I get. Yes, I am plumb crazy. It helps me cope.

Interesting topic you've gotten us into.

Remember, I said up front that I don't know. It could go either way. That energy stuff put me off though.

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#110
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 12:35 PM

Yeah, I could imagine that getting a little crazy.

I don't do any drinking around my daughter beyond a few beers, that's how I end up here, drinking and crazy in the middle of the night. I have to wait until everyone else is asleep.

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#59
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 11:15 AM

Not a problem. Sounds like you had a good time even if you don't remember it all! ;-)

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#63
In reply to #59

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 12:50 PM

The problem is, I do remember....................I just can't remember what the hell my point was. I was hoping you could figure it out.

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#65
In reply to #63

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 1:03 PM

We could try beaming it out into space and see if we get a reply?

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#68
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 2:08 PM

I'm glad you have a sense of humor brother. BTW, are you talking on a cell phone in your picture, or smoking a pipe...........or taking a cell phone picture of yourself.

I like you too AH, but you have to admit..............you have your moments.

Typing away about how little time you have will naturally send me into rebuttal mode.

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#75
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 5:53 PM

"I like you too AH, but you have to admit..............you have your moments."

It keeps people on their toes.

The picture is me holding our first product, which is an F-16 side stick developed for military trainers. We still sell those world wide as well as a large number of other type of aircraft controls for training and simulators.

You wrote, "Typing away about how little time you have will naturally send me into rebuttal mode."

Good, I like a good challenge and it seems so do you! ;-)

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#142
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/03/2011 4:49 PM

In other words, your sample size is very small compared to the total universe. In this case universe means the total of all military personnel.

While I'm not going to argue one way or the other on this topic, I will take minor argument with the above. The US military population is ~1.5 million. It is more than reasonable to assume his "sample" of the military was 200 people. For a 99% confidence level, a percentage of 1% (his generalization), one comes up with a confidence interval of 1.82. That would say to me his sample size is more than adequate (although one could argue whether or not the sample was random).

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#35

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

12/31/2010 7:43 PM

There's also 2 or 3 astronauts and an ex Canadian defence minister that believes in aliens.

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#37

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

12/31/2010 7:56 PM

If you will "Search all of CR4" for UFO, you will find the topic discussed many times.

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#55
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 10:28 AM

And? History is pretty boring, and always repeats itself, enough said.

Semper fudge! Seize the fudge. Happy New Year, and Running is best for hangovers, don't knock it till you try it.

Now to the issue at hand, UFO's are unidentified, that's the issue, aliens. . . . not so much. . . "the surest sign that intelligent life doesn't exist beyond this planet is that none of it has tried to contact us." Calvin + Hobbes

If you think aliens are here or have been here refer to my previous post and put up some engineering type stats also as requested in my previous post. TTFN

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#41

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

12/31/2010 8:35 PM

A random selection of UFO reports to the National UFO Reporting Center for the month of November 2010. The database says there are 222 reports for that month.

11/13/10 20:45

San JoseCAFireball2-5 secGreen FireBall flew across downtown SJ11/21/10

11/13/10 20:30

PelionSCCircle2minLight in the sky11/21/10

11/13/10 20:30

RosevilleCAOtherI thought it was an amber when I first seen it......It looked just like a section of the newspaper blowing in the air 'about' 100 ft.11/21/10

11/13/10 19:50

Birmingham (UK/England)Light1 minsingle intense orange light travelling over sutton coldfield, UK11/21/10

11/13/10 17:30

KeyserWVLight7 secondsI was in the back yard running my dogs and talking to my father on the phone when I sighted a light moving east to west approx. 5000 ft11/21/10

11/13/10 12:03

HighlandINUnknown25sunexplained noise flying above house with no associated air traffic11/21/10

11/13/10 10:00

MagaliaCAFireball1 minthe real deal were not alone11/21/10

11/13/10 07:45

DecaturILUnknown1 minthis thing was no ordinary shape11/21/10

11/13/10 07:11

West CovinaCAChanging3 minutesI seen what I thought was a star towards the mountain area and was looking at it because I never seen a star in that area of sky and it11/21/10

11/12/10 21:00

North SanfordNYCircle5 secondsRound orange fast moving object in straight line with glowing tail.11/21/10

11/12/10 21:00

RedbankSCOtherapp. 30 sec10/12/10 Redbank, SC: 9pm orange pronged vehicle,, duration 30 seconds as low as tree line.11/21/10

11/12/10 19:15

Pristina (Kosovo)Fireball2,3 secondsround ball of fire travelling very fast what looked like a large orange fireball11/21/10

11/12/10 19:05

Tamworth (UK/England)Unknown5 minsLarge in size,three or four cars in length...hovering just above house line with orange and other flashing light ...

Sped off at hi
11/21/10

11/12/10 18:00

ClevelandOHCircledrove pastCleveland, OH lights coming from lake erie.11/21/10

11/12/10 16:30

AlbanyGACigar30 secondsI saw one white, tubular object above the treeline that seemed to be hovering.11/21/10

11/12/10 15:30

Maple GroveMNSphere10 minutesDaytime Sighting in Maple Grove11/21/10
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#45

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

12/31/2010 11:18 PM

And what would be credible evidence? Video's can be stagged, and even DNA can be engineered.

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#56
In reply to #45

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 10:31 AM

If we could engineer alien DNA would could engineer aliens. UFOs are seen all the time, aliens, not so much.

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#47

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 2:21 AM

At first I responded to this on the basis of "general knowledge," however good or bad. Then I started to watch the video. The first two minutes convinced me completely that this is a total damned crock. What a pastiche of undigested opinions and conspiracy innuendoes!

I am by no means against the idea of external visitors; indeed, that could be right cool. But the alleged "evidence" I have seen so far is just crap. Close Encounters of the Third Kind might have been entertaining, but it was plumb stupid.

I might be totally wrong about this, but so far I don't think so. Instead I think there are lots of monumentally gullible people out there.

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#73
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 4:11 PM

I think there have been and will more genuine UFO reports but I don't think any contain aliens.

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#60

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 11:23 AM

Just got back from The Disclosure Project's web site.

This statement, left me shaking my head,

"We have identified insiders and scientists who can prove, in open Congressional hearings, that we do in fact possess classified energy generation and anti-gravity propulsion systems capable of completely and permanently replacing all forms of currently used energy generation and transportation systems. These devices access the ambient electromagnetic and so-called zero point energy state to produce vast amounts of energy without any pollution. Such systems essentially generate energy by tapping into the ever-present quantum vacuum energy state - the baseline energy from which all energy and matter is fluxing. All matter and energy is supported by this baseline energy state and it can be tapped through unique electromagnetic circuits and configurations to generate huge amounts of energy from space/time all around us. These are NOT perpetual motion machines nor do they violate the laws of thermodynamics - they merely tap an ambient energy field all around us to generate energy."

Don't shoot the messenger, Mark.

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#64
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 1:02 PM

If I wanted a bunch of yes men/women I wouldn't even be here.

BTW, where is the government transparency we were all promised?

All I can say lyn, is that somehow, I feel as if we're all missing something. I don't know what it is. But I think it's big.

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#61

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 11:57 AM

do you believe in God tornado?

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#70
In reply to #61

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 2:58 PM

So far, at most in a deistic or Einsteinian sense.

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#97
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 12:54 AM

ok because if you did I would say that you believe in aliens.

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#66

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 1:08 PM

My younger brother, www.guymalone.com ran www.alienresistance.org the christian alien resistance group, for about 10 years in roswell, nm.

Our grandfather worked for aerospace corp after the war, and was familiar, but silent about what was done with the debris back engeneering of the roswell crash. He did, however, show us the 3 new first transistors, encased in lucite or some hard clear plastic, dated one year prior to the introduction of the transistor, 1946, and the 3 transistors were gold plated, looking like transistor designs from the 1950's. And we were told to believe the first news report released about the crash.

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#69
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 2:25 PM

I've visited both of these sites and all I can say is, You've just really got to be kidding. This stuff is much worse than speculating about plain old UFO's. I guess it comes down to whether or not one is capable of thinking for one's self, but stuff like this scares the hell out of me.

I hope that you don't think that the World Trade Center was demolished from the inside by explosives and the planes that just happened to fly into them were a coincidence.

Nothing personal, but this is way over the top and far outside anything I'd like to discuss here.

Happy New Year.

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#71
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 3:02 PM

I've come to the conclusion, that the planet earth, at least as far as humans go, is fueled by bull$hit.

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#72
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 4:08 PM

Let me phrase that

"they merely tap an ambient energy field all around us to generate energy."

Courtesy of Lyn (the messenger)

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#77

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 6:06 PM

How long has Antarctica been covered in ice? Millions of years.Yet there exists an ancient map of Antarctica as it appears without the ice covering.It is so accurate that is had to be taken from an aircraft of some type.No one knew what Antarctica looked like below the ice till we developed ice penetrating radar.The cartographer reviewing the new map thought the map looked familiar,and retrieved an old unidentified map that was identical.The map was thousands of years old.Please explain this if you can, without a previous advanced civilization or outside help.

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#78
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 6:49 PM

There are two views on this

The Von Daniken approach

and the historical cartography approach

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#91
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 9:56 PM

Bull$h¡t; there are no worthwhile maps "thousands of years old."

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#116
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 3:45 PM

How about some facts to back up that statement?

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#117
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 4:08 PM

Did you miss 78 ?

Or just not bother reading the links

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#118
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 4:35 PM

Your question is completely impertinent, until such time as you produce worthwhile evidence. So far you haven't given even a single citation of anything at all.

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#120
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 7:58 PM

Please substantiate that claim with some proof,or do you only require proof from those that disagree with you?

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#121
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 8:05 PM

IF you have an Open Mind,check out Piri Reis map,

then reevaluate your Bull$hit remark.

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#122
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 8:12 PM

Well I see you have found only one of the links, or don't understand the second.

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#123
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 8:20 PM

The best date I can see for the Piri Reis map is 1513. 2011-1513 = 498 years, nowhere near "thousands of years"

Thank you for reinforcing my initial opinion; no need to change it yet.

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#155
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 9:12 AM

The map you referenced has an uncertain origin,but it shows topography as Antarctica is below the ice.The oldest ice cores have been taken from the eastern ice,and they are prehistoric.From that I have concluded that the map must be much older than it appears to be, or was copied from a much older source.

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#95
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 10:38 PM

I don't know who voted you off topic. I just undid it. We can only pretend for so long. You are absolutely correct.

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#96
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 10:49 PM

It isn't too hard to figure this out.

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#98
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 2:18 AM

Except for the part that he isn't correct.

I think this is a great thread - and let me say the probability is, extraterrestrials exist.

But - the automatic link that UFOs are the work of extraterrestrials is not valid logic.

(this was alluded to earlier, so whoever it was, have kudos)

Perhaps they are ET's scurrying about studying the ant colony, in which case a demonstrative link makes UFO into ETFO.

That is the link absent in everything served up so far.

Until that link is made; they are unidentified flying objects, or appear to be objects.

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#99
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 7:05 AM

Being without formal education, I don't even know what the power source is that keeps the earth on its 365 day trajectory around the sun........or the 24 hour daily cycle for that matter. Every time I start something spinning, it slows down.

Damn, the way the earth moves, dare I say, is almost like perpetual motion.

Could one of you guys identify the power source for me?

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#100
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 9:41 AM

It's more a matter of absence of retardation. A bit like you. Umm, I wonder if Earth is just playing mind games with Mankind too?

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#101
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 10:18 AM

I just finished watching part 2. All I can say, is that, if all of what they are saying is garbage, we've had some extremely, dangerously delusional people in positions of power. That's a lot scarier than any alien ever could be.

BTW, I guess we can all congratulate ourselves..........another year, and another round of holidays are finally over. Back to, what I consider normal.

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#103
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 10:42 AM

"we've had some extremely, dangerously delusional people in positions of power"

No argument there

"That's a lot scarier than any alien ever could be"

Nor there.

And extraterrestrials probably would actually have WMD's (he said, referring to the first statement)

Unfortunately holidays are not over everywhere.

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#79

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 6:59 PM

Not to threadjack, but there are many otherwise credible people who swear that the CIA killed President Kennedy, who swear that there were other shooters on the grassy knoll; there are many otherwise credible people, including one or two structural engineers, who swear that the destruction of the Twin Towers was a government organized "implosion".

I could go on, but my point is that this is not an unusual type of illusion. I cannot explain what all of those people saw independently, but that puts the question in a much larger category than the one that encompasses the questions that I can answer.

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#80
In reply to #79

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 7:07 PM

You wrote, "including one or two structural engineers, who swear that the destruction of the Twin Towers was a government organized "implosion"."

Ah, you mean Oprah?

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#83
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 8:00 PM

http://www.ae911truth.org/en/evidence.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Architects_%26_Engineers_for_9/11_Truth

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#84
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 8:21 PM

I sincerely hope that you put these two sites up as examples of how a group of religious zealots from Utah have manufactured a mythical fabrication to exploit their own agenda and misrepresent the truth to further their own goals.

The first reference to thermitic material was manufactured after 9/11/2001. Prior to then, it didn't exist.

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#85
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 8:39 PM

Not advocating, just posting. I trust that most on CR4 practice critical discernment.

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#87
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 8:46 PM

Sorry if I was overbearing. The 9/11 "truthers" just piss me off.

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#86
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 8:40 PM

But you have to admit good examples.

911 is riddled with "qualified" but inexperienced people, drawing conclusions outside probability, due to lack of broader knowledge and/or data assembly skills.

Unfortunately, "hot drama" gets a better run than "cold science"

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#82

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 7:53 PM

A recent UFO story with 20 minutes of video from the local fire chief. Scroll down for u-toob video links. Unidentified and credible.

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#88
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 9:03 PM

If that is not a scripted fake - how is that the camera operator knows "they are going to reconfigure" (and how/where) ahead of them doing so?

Why was the operator so certain the 'best view' was 'up here'?

(and folk should not go 'down the hill')

I vaguely remember - possibly in a past life - explaining how front projection works.

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#89
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 9:10 PM

I watched part 1 and most of part 7. From what I gathered they had been watching these lights for awhile and had deduced a pattern of sorts... winking out one-by-one, and then reappearing in a different configuration. There is almost 20 minutes of video. I don't think the video was faked. There is probably a good explanation, but, until then, they are UFO's.

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#90
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 9:24 PM

I watched it all, including the other u-tube numbers, but also listened to the dialogue including comings and goings of the 'witnesses'. Listen a bit then ask yourself how a typical public group responds to unusual events.

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#92
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 10:22 PM

None of the comments struck me as unusual. Everybody seemed calm and curious watching an anomaly. I've never been in a public group witnessing something unusual, so I don't know how the masses would respond. Again, I'm not advocating, I just don't believe it to be a hoax.

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#94
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/01/2011 10:34 PM
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#104

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 11:11 AM

I don't believe that those U-Tube vids were scripted, nor were they faked. I have seen independent digital video of the same occurrence.

My source is my first cousin Greg and his Russian-born wife Veta. Greg is a successful Dentist who owns a beach home in Naples, FL. His formal education prior to attending dental school was that of a scientist (BS/MS Geology SUNY Cortland + PHD from Cornell Univ., as well as Pre-Med earned at Univ. of SC at Columbia, SC. + his DEntal Degree from U of KY, Lousiville) ....he's nobody's fool and is quite intelligent). Veta is highly educated and is a Special Education teacher with a PHD....again, no body's fool.

On the night in question, both he and his wife witnessed the same UFOs. He took video footage with his top of the line Sony camcorder while his wife took video with her Blackberry cam followed by taking a whole slew of digital still pics with her Nikon DSLR that had 300mm Focal Length type VR telephoto lens.

They were recently up in NYC to attend the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade and then attend an American Dental Association conference the following 2 days. My wife and I met them for dinner on Saturday evening following Thanksgiving. During dinner Veta pulls out her Blackberry and showed us the video of the UFOs. I thoroughly believe them and what they witnessed.....that it was no BS. The digital video footage was approximately 35 minutes in length. My wife Pat, who's no one's fool either having grown up on Long Island, is street wise beyond her years, is the daughter of a retired high-ranking NYC Police Detective, and generally a non-believer of UFOs, was totally floored & flabbergasted by their vids. Now she's reassessing her ideas regarding the existence of Extraterrestrials and UFOs.

To sum it all up, the videos posted on U-Tube, in my estimation, were not a hoax and nearly identical to my cousin's & his wife's videos.

Sticking my neck out way way far here....just don't hack it off, okay? I will not post my cousin's last name as he wants to remain anon., plus he has a practice in Naples FL to run and doesn't need the reticule and harassment.

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#106
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 11:23 AM

Just remember, there's a "world" of difference between an unidentified flying object and an extraterrestrial object.

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#105

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 11:19 AM

Opppps! Sorry, I posted #104 and flubbed the LOGIN. My apologies.

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#107
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 11:37 AM

Ok - Let's say they are not fake - how do you know they are run, piloted, controlled by extraterrestrials?

And while you consider that, ask your self how you could duplicate what they were filming, such that any number of people would be sure to have footage?

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#108

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 11:55 AM

Always the cynic, eh?

For one, these craft are somehow controlled by some intelligence, one way or another, nor are they in my estimation were designed by mankind. Several hundreds of thousands of people around the world who have witnessed UFOs in the past 70 years or so (possibly even longer) can't all be hallucinating.....and that there is a common threads to these sightings?

Have you ever witnessed one? I can guarantee that you'll quickly change your tune if you did. I invite you to visit either the Pine Bush located in Orange County NY or Somona CA, both hot spots of UFOs, with occurrences almost on a nightly basis.

I'm not here to argue semantics with you 34. I respect your position on this subject, just as I would ask that you respect my position.

Forever

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#109
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 12:18 PM

No I haven't witnessed a UFO.

But I have witnessed IFO's that many called UFO's

I've also noticed that the "UFO" design has tended to update with literature and film over that 70 years.

And you obviously do not "respect" my "position" when you rely on confrontational pseudo authority statements like "Have you ever witnessed one?"

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#111
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 12:38 PM

If Orange County NY and Sonoma County CA are "UFO hot spots," why haven't systematic, replicable observations been made and reported? Or have they?

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#113
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 1:05 PM

There has been a good number of vid's and still photos made over the years in those 2 locations. All you have to do is look for them online....

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#135
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/03/2011 5:31 AM

I don't think that I should have to search for these. Instead, it is the obligation of enthusiasts to put forth their alleged evidence for critical examination. I realize full well that this will seldom happen, but that is not my problem....

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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 12:59 PM

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#119

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/02/2011 7:38 PM

May I be excused this discussion on the grounds of being inebriated. I really don't think it would make that much difference.

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#143

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/03/2011 10:10 PM

Hi Kramarat,

Things we dont understand, at lot of people will just lock out of their minds, they just dont want to know about it, lets call it the Tunnel Vision Sindrome. From what I have heard there are a billion, billion stars in the universe ( I dont know who counted them) but lets just say that the circumstances that created spaceship earth was a chance of 1 in a billion and that we are not in the centre of the universe, it is possible that there are a billion other civilsations on other planets all over the universe.

I have no idea how long the big bang has building the universe, but I understand that our planet has been around for about 4.5 billion years. With this in mind and the fact that we are not the centre of the universe this means planets closer to the centre of the universe have had more time to develop their space travel skills due to their planet being older than ours, a planet 10,000 years older than ours could have the technoligy to travel vast distances.

Think about it, if you were around 200 yrs ago and you said that one day it would be possible to go from the UK to NY in 3 hrs, they would have thought you were nuts, even if we said it 100 yrs or maybe even 50 yrs ago.

Technoligy have changed so much over the last 50 years, with minaturising of electronic components, and now that we are understanding nano technoligy, technoligy is going to advance at a faster rate, not only for electronics but for every thing man made, space ships will use this technoligy, things will change rapidly.

One day in the near future we may be visiting other planets in other solar systems. Setting up colonies etc.

I belive that we are not alone in the universe, I think it would be naive to believe we are alone in the universe.

Disclamer: Some of my spelling will be incorrect, Some of my facts may also be incorrect, Even my own belif may be incorrect.

Happy New Year to all CR4 Partisapants

Best Regards

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#144
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/03/2011 11:06 PM

We are just recently beginning to discover that other stars have planets, some of them at distances from their stars that would give temperatures suitable for life such as on our earth. The vast number of stars makes for significant probability of other life, as estimated by the "Drake equation." Everything is still speculative, but quite a few people would agree that other life seems likely.

That said, there are also strong probability reasons that such life has not traveled here. That doesn't rule out the possibility, of course, but it does suggest that claims of visitors are very unlikely.

The 1972 book UFO's: A Scientific Debate (ed. Carl Sagan and Thornton Page) still holds up quite well.

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#145
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/03/2011 11:37 PM

Hi Tornado, what you are refering to is life as we know it. But life possibly even intelegent life may have adapted to its current living conditions. For example the press relase from Nasa recently that found simple life forms in an acidic atmosphere.

Dont quote me on this, I may be wrong.

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#146
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 12:23 AM

"Life as we know it" is ineluctably parochial, but we don't have a lot of choice about what sorts of life we can observe--we're stuck with what we've got!

I hadn't heard of the NASA results, but I would imagine that there is some range of acidity/alkalinity in which life might arise. The Miller-Urey experiments in the 1950s produced some amino acids out of more primitive "building block" molecules. It is unsure whether the earth's early atmosphere matched the Miller-Urey assumptions, but I think that varying life chemistries could arise from varying initial conditions. I don't know that, but at least we do know that life arose at least once.

I would bet more than once, and more than in one place. But I'll never be around to win/lose this bet, unless some aliens show up! (C'est la vie, say the old folks....)

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#151
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 8:06 AM

There is a lot here.

First, the universe is about 14 BY old. Our solar system is about 4.5 BY old. Mankind has only been germinating for a million or so years. Technology to comprehend things at the current state we are has only been a few decades. Radio has been around about 100 years.

All of this and more is covered by The Drake equation in greater detail.

Some missing information that is critical to understanding that formula are:

• How long do civilizations last? It could be that technology leads to catastrophic demise or success in survival. What is the statistical spread and normal distribution curve?

• What are the number of habitable planets?

• Is interstellar travel possible within a reasonable time frame (essentially Faster Than Light)? How advanced does a civilization need to be to get that technology?

• Is intergalactic travel possible?

I think we can figure out some of the other pieces of the equation. For instance, where does the Golden Age of life reside? That is, how mature must a solar system be before stable life can exist? How mature must a galaxy be? Not all parts of the universe are homogeneously nurturing for life. For example, dense formation or nurseries of stars seem like good candidates for coexisting civilizations, but the conditions for life are environmentally harsh with the higher radiation, etc.

The first bullet is the real unknown. We only have a sample size of one right now (us) and that sample is incomplete. In other words, we have not gone extinct nor have advanced to a point where the prospect of extinction is low.

The importance of that number is if civilizations tend to self extinct after a period of time, then the prospect of interstellar travel is directly impacted. It takes a lot of technology to reach our own Moon, let alone neighboring stars.

Also, if the lifespan of a civilization is on the order of a million years or so, then the probability of multiple civilizations coexisting is low when you consider the age of the universe. If a civilization matures to a high degree of technology and then self destructs, there may be little meaningful time to explore the universe or even broadcast radio waves.

Let's say that the Golden Age for life in the universe starts at 8 billion years from T0. That is 4 billion years of life cooking away so far. If the average lifespan for intelligent civilization turns out to be 1 million years, then the odds of two civilizations coexisting at any one time in space is 1 out of 1,000.

The odds get much worse if we consider the amount of time that a civilization has advanced technology. If self destruction is typical and we say that civilizations only maintain a high technology status for a few hundred years, the the odds of two civilizations coexisting during that period jumps to 1 in 20 million!

Another puzzle is why we have yet to detect radio signals from other civilizations. Again, using the 200 year number we can imagine a civilization broadcasting into space and creating a bubble of RF expanding at the speed of light. However, that bubble has a skin that is only 200 light years thick. So, once again, the odds of detection may be pretty slim on the account of the odds of temporally coexisting confounded by interstellar distances, which reduce signal strength.

The numbers cited are purely hypothetical, but what i am trying to do is create an understanding that both time and space is really, really big! If the average useful time that a civilization is technologically active is small, it may be very reasonable to expect little or no contact from another civilization.

We also have a problem of where to look. Earth has a radio bubble of about 100 light years radius. That doesn't extend very far into the universe, so our own footprint is very, very tiny and that makes us hard (if not statistically impossible) to be detected.

The universe may be teaming with life over the course of its Golden Age, but the distances and time spans are so great as to render that high percentages of life statistically nil for the purpose of meaningful contact among civilizations.

Only time will tell what the real numbers are and I hope as a species that we are around long enough to find those answers.

My favorite science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke wrote, "Two possibilities exist: Either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying."

Both are equally amazing, too!

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#163
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 4:06 PM

Pragmatism at its best. GA.

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#166
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 5:12 PM

GA for that - but statistics don't mean the one can't happen, or hasn't.

As said IFOs can be UFOs to many. "Experimental" is often happily "UFO". UFOs are easily faked. So problem 1 is proof of "truly UFO" and problem 2 is proof of "extraterrestrial control".

E.g. the Martians currently have both proofs, but still no actual 'alien'.

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#173
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Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 10:06 PM

UFO≠alien. Why is it that when the term UFO is used alien is automatically implied with it? A UFO is simply that. A UFO flown by extraterrestrial biological entities is a whole lot of stuff thrown on top of a simple acronym. Given the history of Top Secret aircraft flown by the US military there is, undoubtedly, aircraft which would surprise us if it flew by, and be declared as an UFO. Which would accurately describe it; no aliens necessary.

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#175
In reply to #173

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 11:51 PM

Fully agree, as have several (though only one has been hounded for saying it) <pun

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#241
In reply to #151

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

02/01/2011 6:40 PM

Well Anonymous Hero, argument together, I like the way you think. You get my GA as your reasoning seems very sound, thanks for taking the time to spell it out to me.

Cheers

Joe

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#168

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 5:47 PM

Well, I believe you saw what you saw captmoosie.......as well as a lot of others.

All I can say, is that if all credible evidence is instantly collected and hushed up by the government, (not just the US, but I'm sure all of them), and civilian sightings/pictures/videos are passed off as easily explainable anomalies or hoaxes, then I guess, besides the witnesses themselves, the rest of us will never know.

Interviews with high ranking former military personnel.........or astronauts, for that matter, apparently, mean nothing.

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#172

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/04/2011 9:20 PM

I revised my first comments. They were rude. I'm done here. This is in no longer a rational discussion.

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#178

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/05/2011 9:29 AM

"Credible UFO Testimony"

an·to·nym /ˈænnɪm/ Show Spelled[an-tuh-nim]

–noun a word opposite in meaning to another. Fast is an antonym of slow. Compare synonym.

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#182

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/05/2011 4:56 PM

This won't take four hours to watch, and the time of year of right to revisit this.

Have your neighbor check out Radioactive: The Mystery of McCarthy's Pond.

There are some great comments there, too.

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#184
In reply to #182

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/05/2011 6:34 PM

Oh Boy!! Thanks, I'll send it on........I'm sure he'll be interested.......me too!

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#183

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/05/2011 5:06 PM

I've thought about this a bit and here's my conclusion...

Credible people testifying to the incredible without credible evidence is faith.

If we simply define UFO as the literal meaning (unidentified flying object) and 100 million people testify that they saw it and are still ignorant, well... one could only hope more people watch and learn that it is OK to not know something and admit to it.

I've worked in my field now for about 18 years and still learn new things all the time. I have a fairly broad knowledge base (as do most here) and a fairly deep knowledge base in my field of expertise (as do most here). This does not mean that we have seen everything there is to see or know everything there is to know.

In fact, one of the more profound things I have realized is that the more I learn, the more I understand how much I don't know.

The point I am trying to make is two-fold. People are not omniscient and people are fallible. From Chinese rockets off the coast of California to David Copperfield making the Statue of Liberty disappear, people will see incredible things, but that doesn't make what they witnessed true or their testimony credible.

Give me 20 or 30 people who don't know each other who all have evidence (multiple recordings of the same event from different angles) that has all been reviewed and verified by independent experts. Then maybe...

Oh wait... balloons in NY anyone???

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#192

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/06/2011 9:10 PM

70% of our planet is covered by water.Let's open a new can of worms:

USO's.Unidentified Submerged objects.Those that emerge from the sea at tremendous speeds, and disappear under the water just as quickly.Perhaps they use a cavitation bubble under water,and something analogous in the air,by creating a "bubble" in space-time?Or perhaps a space-time bubble would work above or below the surface.

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#193
In reply to #192

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/07/2011 4:25 AM

The Russians have one (well several hundred) of those.

Ha ha, now it's an IFO!

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#194
In reply to #193

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/07/2011 4:45 AM

I know about the cavitating torpedoes,etc.,we have them too,as well, but to leave from under the water and go supersonic in the air,then go back into submarine mode? I have not heard about any terrestrial civilization having them.. please tell me more....

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#195
In reply to #194

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/07/2011 5:05 AM

Who is "we" and why do you "need to know"?

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#216
In reply to #195

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/07/2011 8:55 PM

If I identified myself,my life would be worthless, it is better I remain a mystery.As for a "need to know" it is rather a need to tell. Do YOU have a need to KNOW,or are you content to speculate on the validity of others' statements? When we determine that you have sufficient security clearance much will be revealed, but not in a public forum.We will contact you.We have already determined your identity and will be contacting you soon, or not.

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#217
In reply to #216

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/07/2011 9:17 PM

curiouser and curiouser said alice

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#218
In reply to #217

Re: Credible UFO Testimony

01/07/2011 10:38 PM

Uh-oh does he think he coming with a velvet hammer an bong you with it does he thinking that...don't worry you won't feel a thing....

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