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Speaking of Precision

Speaking of Precision is a knowledge preservation and thought leadership blog covering the precision machining industry, its materials and services. With over 36 years of hands on experience in steelmaking, manufacturing, quality, and management, Miles Free (Milo) Director of Industry Research and Technology at PMPA helps answer "How?" "With what?" and occasionally "Really?"

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U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

Posted August 31, 2010 8:53 AM by Milo

Any questions?

Our comment for this is three words recalled from Mrs. Ponte's Latin Class: 'res ipsa loquitor.'

Translation: 'The thing itself speaks.'

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Manufacturing Employees (MANEMP)/ Total NonFarm Payrolls; All Employees (PAYNSA)

Original source FRED

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#1

Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 9:18 AM

Fascinating - and alarming. I'll get the conversation started, Milo.

The percentage decrease from the early to mid-1940s (when wartime manufacturing put millions back to work) until the Oil Embargo of 1973 (the end of cheap oil) looks to be about 15%. Let's call that a 35-year period for simplicity's sake. Then, the decrease from the mid-1970s until today (again, another roughly 35-year period) is also about 15%.

What I would have expected to see was a vastly greater decrease overall during this second 35-year period. That's mainly because wages for the American middle class (as I keep hearing) have been relatively stagnant since the mid-1970s. Of course, there are other factors than oil at work (tax policy, trade policy, etc.). There's also the assumption that manufacturing jobs were "good jobs" (i.e. good-paying jobs) and that the service economy largely involves flipping hamburgers for minimum wages (a gross oversimplification).

What do others think of this data?

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 10:14 AM

Moose -- Interesting analysis. But this chart doesn't tell the whole story. Even though manufacturing employment is down, manufacturing production remains high. Through technology and innovation, we can now manufacture more (and better) products with fewer employees.

Compare to agricultural industry. At the beginning of the 20th century, 40% of the American workforce was employed in agriculture. 100 years later, only 2% -- yet we feed millions more people.

We could not make some of the marvelous products of today if we relied on just human labor. We need the precision of computers and high-tech machines to make something so small that it can be implanted into the human body and extend lives.

Lori Ann Dick

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#3
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 1:24 PM

A couple of good points. I've only got one question, " Where is everyone going to work?"

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#4
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 1:33 PM

It's going to be real tough for unskilled workers to find the high-paying jobs that their parents and grandparents had. But we will need high-skilled workers to design, create, operate and maintain all this technology.

We need to ensure that our children have the most opportunity possible by ensuring they have good math and science programs in schools -- something that engages their imagination. High school grads who have this education will have the most choices available for career options.

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#20
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 9:23 AM

Don't all HS grads posses enough math and science skills to do the jobs our parents and grandparents did?

Over government of all aspects of business has been absolutely crushing.

Good jobs are available in human resource.. ...the dollar store.. ... and at walmart..

..oh and in law.. and .. government.. medicine .. the list goes on..

There are very few robots that work to save the sweat of human labor..

A massive portion of mechanized labor is devoted to making food that no human being would even consider making at home.

..It's not that it's hard work.. .. it's a focus on increasing the bottom line ..at any cost

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#36
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 5:01 PM

My grandfather was a physics professor. Not to many HS kids are ready for that job, even teaching the old-school physics. But seriously, many HS grads are just as qualified to get a job at the steel mill as their grandfathers were, but the steel mills are gone. Is this meant as a joke?

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#37
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 5:10 PM

Sadly, CR4 lacks a sarcasm font.

I certainly took it as tongue in cheek.

THOSE JOBS ARE GONE!

Milo

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#38
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 5:28 PM

I think you're right. A sarcasm font is a great idea though for thick skulled types like me.

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#45
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/02/2010 8:47 AM

Milo! You've hit the nail on my head!

thanks for the post..

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#47
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/02/2010 10:05 AM

Thanks for the thoughtful comments.

Milo

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#41
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 10:49 PM

again its common issue to be addresses by all engineers world over,Un less the future engineers and their parents of every country understands that the country he is born and living is His country and he has to contribute with sweat and hard work (I find since last 30 years every parent wants his ward to earn 100times more than what he was earning and struggles to insure his ward becomes a an MBA.High flying Marketing man,financial analyst,or IT Big brother of the world(common perception of every parent is blue collared jobs are meant for Very lower class people) Now we watch the situation where we are,unless parents read the writing on the wall un less some one takes up jobs as a mechanist,miller in machine shop,where human skills are of paramount importance (automation,of manufacturing chains require human interface and manufactures realise the workers with basic skill are also human beings and they are the backbone and foundation of the industry most important of all engineers with skill is a fellow citizen nothing much could be expected , i remember when i was with a multinational in a Chicago area huge army of skilled engineers were recruited to meet high production targets before the emission rules were implemented in the year 2000s and sold the diesel engines manufactured for a high profit)& the engineers were lay-ed off using six sigma as a cost saving tool along with highly skilled engineers of their own just because they could not qualify as black belts.i was wondering what will happen to the lay ed of engineers?

murali

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#5
In reply to #2

Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 5:00 PM

Thanks, Lori Ann, for joining the discussion and providing your own analysis. It's great to have someone from the Society of Manufacturing Engineers as part of this conversation. It's an important one.

Moose

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#9
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 7:53 PM

Lori, You have hit the proverbial nail on the head. Too often the technology sector gets overlooked as part of manufacturing when in fact it contributes greatly to our GDP. Between what we produce and what technologies get applied, it can be overwhelming. Look at what robotics has done to the auto industry. Or what computers and laser cutting has done to the garment industry. Or what the cell phone has done for communications, etc. etc.. And to think that technology is not linear but exponential only tells me that I cannot even begin to comprehend what we will be seeing in ten years from now. You are absolutely correct in saying that we no longer rely upon human labor. BTW, I'm also a member of the SME.

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#19
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 9:01 AM

OMG!? What are you implanting in humans to extend lives!?!?

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#22
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 9:55 AM

Stents, in the case of my parents.

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#44
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/02/2010 8:43 AM

Stents do not help people live longer..

If anything, they can help avoid an early exit.

If you want to live longer, you need to install more fresh fruits and veggetables into your body..

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#29
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 3:30 PM

Welcome to CR4 Lori.

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#32
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 4:16 PM

Thanks! Been exchanging Tweets w/ CR4, but first time I posted. :)

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#10
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 8:02 PM

Data seems sound from what I see around me, or in stories of Detroit or even Rochester New York. Apparently people still need things that are made in factories of China, or China?

I read here on the site some bit about DARPA as wanting to receive CAD drawings and then have a Modular sort of Factory to make from that the new tank. I'd read that the Patent Office was not working so well and inventions were held back since a patent in hand is extremely helpful for raising investment capital.

Transformational products are very important for economic strength. Far as building tanks and other Military Industrial Complex things cheaper and better, I guess it would be hard to really be against that if your tax dollars are paying for bad stuff, made at the highest cost, but I transferred the concept to the Patent Office with only a glimmer of a way to mesh public and private money.

Tools Jewels and Land are wealth. At one time Huges was the richest man in the world, I think, anyway rich enough. In the end I suppose it is about Tool Making which does not now always look like it used to.

I myself moved from "Service" in the Aviation industry, to Production in Motion Pictures, (acting and writing too) to home renovations, which pretty much felt like a service industry.

Next time I retrain I intend to become an economist. My current policies are Whole Life Insurance policies for all Transcendian Citizens so labor has value to compete with capital, and an International Living Wage adjusted for different exchange rates.

It may well be a good measure of trends at least to look at the health and locations, and all factors of tool producing companies that are either start-ups with new tools, or legacy companies.

For NC the state I'm in I found it significant Caterpillar is locating a factory in the State, while Dell is out the door.

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#15
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

08/31/2010 11:57 PM

Its happening all over the world not just USA i feel its an Attitude problem,(Its a shame to work with your own hands and think logically)in other words no need of hands on experience every job/Task will be done by automated machines,even there is no need to read and learn Computers and software will do every thing its amusing children to day doesn't memorize Multiplication tables, basic arithmetical operations are not a subject to focus in schools even in India most of the shops at the cash counter sales people are hooked to either electronic calculators, or depend on computer to tell you how much you have to pay,in this situation how do you except healthy relation manufacturing as percentage of employment

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#24
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 12:47 PM

Scary stuff. While I think SocMfgEng has a valid point that precision manufacturing requires automation which reduces employment, I think the bigger issue is that we are pricing ourselves out of the global market, and we have lagged in our responsibility to educate our young. Neither of these problems will be easy to solve in a deliberate way, and any solution is likely to have wrenching effects that will create a political backlash. But if we fail in the attempt the 'invisible hand' of the global market will solve it for us and the results will be an unmitigated disaster.

It seems to me that in the last several decades we have evolved from a capitalist economy to a cleptocracy. As the voices of our citizens who lived through the great depression have faded, we have forgotten the important lesson that while capitalism is a good system, it is not perfect and needs constant attention and sensible regulations. Our political process has let Wall Street write our banking regulations and tax policies, our insurance industry to write the insurance regulations, our real estate industry write our land use policies, and our fossil fuel industry write our energy policy. From their own perspective they did this wisely, but from mine these industries have become predatory. These upper eschelons of our economy have become top heavy with overpriced 'talent'. Feeding and caring for these bloated industries raises the price of everything. So now we have millions of houses that are too large to heat and cool with dwindling energy sources, bought at cartoonishly inflated prices using borrowed money, insured at the fictional selling price, located in the suburbs so far from work that we spend too much of our income on cars and fuel. To become competitive again in the market we need to untie this Gordian knot. Untying this knot will be devastating for many folks near retirement age, who were counting on the value of their homes as a nest egg. Many people happily (if not gainfully) employed in these industries will find themselves looking for work.

Bringing our education levels up to speed will be at least as complicated. It's not just our schools that are failing. We as parents are also failing to help motivate our kids. Our social values are at odds with our needs. We need more scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and skilled technicians, but a large and growing segment of our society doesn't like the smarty-pants types, and is instead fixated on ghosts, vampires, celebrities and pro athletes. Few teachers have the personalities to compete in real time for the attention of our students with the zazz and sparkle of the confected products from our entertainment industry. Most of our teachers are not strong in math and science, and even if they try valiantly to overcome their own limitations the real message that comes through is their own discomfort. Most students I know have some vague sense that things are going horribly wrong, and that their prospects are fading, but since few political leaders (from either party) are willing to speak frankly about our economic problems , they are left to face these fears alone with no sense of how to resolve them.

There are some things we can do, but they will all inflict pain on somebody, and those somebodies will scream bloody murder. We could dismantle the tax policies that were originally intended to boost home ownership but that now serve to keep housing prices at their artificially high prices. That will hurt. We can dismantle the tax policies that penalize businesses for buying new equipment with their own money, and encourage them to do so with borrowed money. We can treat the insurance industry more like utilities. We can decide that it is finally time to get serious about alternative energy sources (the first oil crisis was nearly four decades ago). We can revamp our education system to meet the needs of a 21st century world, take resources away from administration and put them into the classroom, and we can rethink our bad attitudes towards education in general. We can be honest with ourselves and each other about our predicament, and get rid of our crippling sense of entitlement that says America is great because we deserve to be great - we deserve it because we saved the world from fascism and then from communism, we cured polio, and we put a man on the moon. Nobody out there wants to hear about what we did a generation or so back - they want to know if we want to buy any of their stuff, and if we have any stuff to sell.

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#30
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 3:39 PM

johnfotl for president!!

no seriously... a very incisive bit of writing. ga.

Chris

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#39
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 8:57 PM

In general, I say that John is right-on. I guess I'm an old reprobate, one for the gipper and all that, but, additionally, I've seen most of the jobs here that used to be considered craftsmen type in construction, taken over by "foreign" guests, construction contracts issued to those same guests because they are of a minority origin and a resultant quality of worksmanship that puts our roads, bridges, houses and buildings in the same delapidated condition as it is in their country.

I've also seen the tax incentive moves that companies are making to outsource because of lower standards in environmental regulations, lower salaries, no benefits and resultant lower quality products that don't meet quality standards in any country, like lead paint used on toys, medical supplies that are rejected by concerned US doctors or slipped through and end up killing a patient, replaced quality goods with look alikes that fall apart in days, or even light bulbs that explode and cause death and disasters.

I've seen companies that are striving to stay afloat end up giving away hard earned patented technology for a short term gain, pay the Harvard MBA a large bonus then go belly up the next year becuase the foreign recipient ignores the patent or licensing arrangement and exports the goods back to the US. All the while the US governemnt is taking part in global trade and giving foreign AID to the country that is exporting those goods to the US.

I've also seen our fishing fleet devastated in every state that borders with the ocean because our US State Dept. has issued fishing rights to foreign countries so as not to hurt their feelings, to come within 2 miles off our coast and use drag nets of gill nets to devastate our waters, whereas we are not allowed within 200 miles off their coast lines and we use lobster traps and measure for legal size.

There are hundreds of these issues that we have watched and done nothing and continue to accept them, pay for them and stick our heads deeper into the sand. We need to reinstate the unions with their right to fight for benefits and decent pay, we need to repeal the child labor law and allow the kids to get jobs and make something of themselves instead of standing on a corner smoking dope or joining gangs, we need to reinstate the values the professional societies have put on goods and again implant the standards we could count on. And anyone who is an elected official that tries to discredit the old ways with bottom line thinking needs to feel the rath of the voting booth.

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#40
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

09/01/2010 10:08 PM

The manipulators who control what you see on the TV, or read in the "papers" know how to spin it all even to the realistic.

There were only certain jobs I could take when I became a paperboy. I was proud of myself for going to work to get the money to buy my clothes and candy and honeybuns, which is what I lived off of mostly.

Doctors visits were affordable I guess, since otherwise I suppose I'd be dead.

I have no illusions about where my vote goes and just do it as something anarchistic as available like how mosquitoes might try to poke an elephant.

Kids could either deliver newspapers, or cut lawns as work training money making, what is there for them to do now?

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#57
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Re: US Manufacturing Employment As A Percentage Of Total Employment

12/22/2015 6:46 AM

According to me, there must be a strict laws against child labor and the pay should be decided according to category of industries. In France, there is an agreement between employer and employee called convention collective metallurgie, according to which minimum pay is fixed as per the category.

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#6

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 5:42 PM

Another thought provoking topic Milo. Thank you.

A couple of buzz phrases here; from kramrat, "Where is everyone going to work?". We cannot all work in high-tech. Where, indeed, will the next generations find useful, productive, satisfactory livelihood?

And from SocMfgEng, "...something that engages their imagination." A sub-adult is a difficult thing to engage. I know perhaps twenty high school age individuals (sub-adults), and if I want to visit about twitter, Halo, Alienware, Micro-Raptor, or something called 'Facebook', then I will engage them. If I wish to visit about cellular mitosis, photosynthesis, polynomial equations, exothermic reactions... (they should be studying SOME of these topics in school) I get a blank stare, and a comment similar to "Who cares, dude! I'll never use that stuff". There are exceptions to this generalized observation, but I believe this to be representative of the bulk of the high school population in America. This is disturbing.

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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 5:59 PM

I've been doing some looking around on the web for some stats on high-tech jobs. I haven't found any definitive data, but from what I'm seeing, those jobs are also on the downturn, i.e.- there are more qualified people than there are jobs to fill.

Typically, I am a, "glass is half full", thinker, but, I'm not seeing a lot of encouraging news.

We do come up with some awesome technology, unfortunately, it seems that the technology is exported and products that stem from it are outsourced and imported.

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#11
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 9:53 PM

I want to thank everyone for their thoughtful contributions to this thread.

The idea that we are not equipping our young people for "high tech manufacturing" is straight out of the head lines:

http://www.mlive.com/michigan-job-search/index.ssf/2010/08/manufacturing_company_in_wixom_has_50_go.html

Highest unemployment rate in years, and precision machining jobs are there for the taking. Going Begging. In Detroit area.

I never thought that I would be a contrarian about education, but I can see that a "skilled, knows their stuff machinist" can pretty much find a job any time any where YET NOONE SEEMS TO BE TEACHING YOUNG PEOPLE TO BECOME MACHINISTS. There are plenty of college grads trying to pay student loans while unemployed, while machinist jobs go begging.

And the graph says that manufacturing is a suckers bet...

I know that we make lots of cool stuff here, aerospace parts, automotive parts (fuel injectors, anti lock brakes air bag parts to mention a few) Medical implants, the list goes on and on. I did not post the graph to bash manufacturing, but it certainly does reflect the decline in the value we as a society of parents teachers, and students place on the skilled trades and manufacturing.

Milo

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#48
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/02/2010 5:02 PM

$14-$20 an hour for CNC machinists??????????? YGTBSM

And a UAW Union Shop to boot in the Detroit suburbs.

Is this a pay range for apprentices??

They pay $40/hr to turn a lug wrench in the assembly plants!!!

Hooker <-- journeyman machinist who has lived as a CNC consultant in Michigan. I'd starve to death at those rates up there. (only exaggerating a little)

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#18
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 9:00 AM

Doorman, I think the fault for the lack of interest or enthusiasm can be placed on the teachers and the parents for not inspiring kids. I have a 20, an 18 and a 16 yr old. Each of them has their specific passion, yet they still like xbox, playstation and the like. While my oldest is studying chemistry, he's got an amazing curiosity about bugs; he'll study ants, spiders, you name it. My 18 yr old has just started on his mechanical engineering degree, and the youngest is looking towards environmental studies.

My point is that each of them knows that beyond high school, they've got to have a direction. A plan is better, but each of them knew they had to find a trade or study for a professional career. I've seen too many kids graduate from high school and have no idea where to go from there. These are the ones that disturb me, the ones with truly murky futures.

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#43
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/02/2010 3:56 AM

S. Daniel Abraham, billionaire founder of Slim-Fast. Joined the Army at the age of 18 and fought in Europe during World War II. Did not attend college.

Ansel Adams, photographer. Dropped out of high school.

Gautam Adani, commodities billionaire from India. Dropped out of college.

Sheldon Adelson, billionaire casino owner. Dropped out of City College of New York to become a court reporter. He made his first fortune doing trade shows.

Dennis Albaugh, billionaire founder of pesticide company Albaugh Inc. Did not continue on to a 4-year degree.

Dhirubhai Ambani, billionaire Indian businessman. High school dropout.

Wally "Famous" Amos, multimillionaire cookie entrepreneur, author, talent agent. Dropped out of high school at the age of 17 to join the U.S. Air Force.

Danni Ahse, multimillionaire businesswoman, adult entertainment website operator, model, producer, dancer. High school dropout who later earned an equivalency degree.

These are just 1/20th of the interesting ones on the list, from last names that start with A.

Self Motivation ... not entitlements! In High school, we need to do a better job at teaching what is out there and how to go about achieving it. Basic survival and following your dreams not withstanding. Now if only the government "people" will let this be done.

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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/02/2010 7:42 PM

Dear One2, Your thumbnail bios make some point, though I note the persons mentioned are not particularly of this era. I myself was influenced on my life path by my Grandfather who was very successful as an efficiency expert, Norden Bombsite Team Leader, VP of Revere Cookingware long before he got a degree in Divinity, that being the only degree he had.

To tell the truth I feel as though US culture was markedly more of a meritocracy prior to, and for sometime after WWII. You could see how that might be the case when so many had just shared across class and race in combat when merit is all that matters.

I've long suggested that if the GI Bill had been won for all ever after the successes wrought out of that generation would have advanced the US to a point of unassailable power. Heard that the next blow to the economy may well be brewing from Student Loan Defaults running 35 to 55 percent. You got compulsory free education through High School. You got competition for the best teachers from private schools way through and beyond highschool, and High school is not anymore enough.

In the little bios I note some went into service, airforce or in the case of Bill Lear, the Army as a radio operator. Some military training and education is more transferable than other training and education. US military training is considered about the best in the world. What the hell, it is true that some people are born to be warriors, and some born to be engineers and inventors.

(Imagine Globalspec may have some law firm advertisers in the roster by now. I love it when lawyers and politicians show up on CR4.)

What would be fun for me would be to test out and see what degree I might get from my body of work and some sort of appropriate test.

These days I sure would not tell any youth no matter how inventive and hardworking to eschew credentials.

Milo has said that the manufacturing jobs will not come back. We all know Milo knows what he says to be true, though in NC I see high tech manufacturing doing alright. Hondajet did test flights out of a company I used to work for. They will build engines in Burlington. Catepillar just committed to a Factory in the State. Dell was a wash for it failed but hence lost the tax breaks and has to pay. RTP continues to roil, but Cree out Durham continues to grow.

You are seeing NC State vie for reputation with MIT, and Duke has its narrowly focused successes.

(My life has been saved twice at UNCH Hospital and I know the pilots for MedAir fairly well.)

Sure enough it does matter a lot where you live. Transcendian economic theory was and is to make every community function as a port no matter where it is for an airport can obviate the curses of real geographic limitations. My theories do and will inspire international opposition for they are dependent for success on the free movement of labor, same as the free movement of capital in the form of mulitnational corporations.

Same as is the case in Haiti, it is not so much knowledge, invention, that inhibits the solving of problems, but human nature, and laws that give more power to those with power than giving fair treatment all around.

Everytime I turn around I need a lawyer.

Used to be you simply had to pass the bar, to become an attorney. Would be a good time to steal a copy of the Bar Exam...

I could see selling copies of Bar Exams as an anarchistic proactive international civil demonstration. When working on problems in Haiti I couldn't find dick about property right law there.

Anyway I've gone on but suppose if manufacturing is a wash we ought to all become attorneys, or mercenaries, for they are service jobs.

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/04/2010 12:32 AM

That was a rather lengthy reply, to my reply, to someone elses' reply. :o)

That list is by no means to be considered representative ... it was just the first few people on the list that I knew (of). There were a few "entertainment individuals" that I purposely did not list. My point was that they achieved financial success on their own initiative.

But you bring up some subjects that I would personally like to touch on for your benefit. I read your bio too. So this comment is mostly for you.

The rich that want power have reached a saturation point in my opinion. Now it is about control. Bait and switch the ignorant. Keep them ignorant. Prepare your monster foil. Preoccupy them in this endeavor. When a slave fights a slave, only a slave will lose. They have created the "entitlement monster". You are American this is what you are entitled to have. (BULLSHIrT) Merit is gone. Influence, deception, control, middle management scapegoats... this is the new america if not the new world.

Growth has been taught as "good" and level & sustainable non-growth is "stagnant". Things like a "raise" for living to be one year older ... if you are more productive a year later then fine, but if not, why should you get a raise? (well billy and bobby's dads got one wha wha wha...)... Medicare & social security in the USA are dependent on growth by design. It is like a pyramid scheme. It is just stupid. What a stupid design. But now you are entitled to it. Slave. The rich don't even need it. They set you up dummy.

"Bio-Medical" Engineer, mercenary, farmer, corpsman-therapist-perfusionist, alternative energy innovator (inventor). Physics teacher & philosopher that takes pain killers. I am of the older era :o).

The "law" has been the biggest thorn in my side. If you are on the anarchist trail, learn your enemy. It is not the people it is the "law". Good people & laws abound, but the bad ones (laws) weaken the chain as to make the good ones (laws) of little worth. Anarchy is somewhat of a misnomer. A right is a law in my opinion. Right not to be killed, & the right to life is not the same thing. I may be a bit macabre. I have seen and done things that, hopefully, you will not have to experience. So my idea of success has changed drastically from the 60 & 70's.

Do the right thing regardless of the law. And when the law refuses to allow this ... by any means necessary, subvert it, change it, or get ready to rumble. I'd advise you to be as sneaky as possible on the latter.

I did mention i was on pain meds right?

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#52
In reply to #50

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/05/2010 12:56 PM

Yair, I sure can go on now and then.

Sports and Entertainment fields may be of interest, for I have long said you can make a lot of money if you are willing to make a fool of yourself.

As a share of the US economy, and exports movies and music were higher up there than normally acknowledged. I believe Games are now bigger than either movies or music now. The US economy may well have been more damaged by copyright infringements and theft in China, and Russia than commonly understood. Certainly far as export products US production of movies, television, and music is something those in LA and NY are capable of making, manufacturing, products that for long have had unique markets internationally.

Far as the new paradigm those working in the Entertainment Industry both Above and Below the Line actually have some security in the US for cultural and technological reasons. In particular there is a tradition of Free Speech in the US that many in the world find very desirable, even when the US is far from perfect.

(I have studied Wage Slavery in the US.)

One paradigm that I believe also influences Drug Companies is the Free Riders. For a long time the US consumers were able to pay internally for what they produced, while in growing markets like China, and Russia they essentially got it for free, or off the books. Products of Free Speech, where Free Speech is illegal, are in the nations that do not have a tradition of Free Speech, then from the get go - are black market.

So in fact the manufacturing segment of the economy where the US has unique strengths creating desirable products around the world, does not get paid in major markets. Imagine if every bootlegged movie or musical recording illegally duplicated and sold in China and Russia, was paid for?

As propaganda for the American Way of Life, and its products motion pictures and music are unparralleled as advertisements creating an incentive in higher reaches of government to not push the issue of intellectual property theft. Suppose if more entertainers were Republicans the generally liberal entertainers might get a little more protections for their business interests. Surely this might do a bit to improve the State of California's tax revenues though entertainers just like anybody else may sometimes flee places where they are over taxed, as did the Rolling Stones fled to France, of all places, to escape taxes in Britain. Exile on Main Street was the product of that event.

When you look at the movie and television and music industry you can see people who work in that industry pretty much doing what the rest of the manufacturing industries are encouraged to do. Further you see it suffering profit loses for the same reasons.

It's unique strengths do mean that the labor force is long likely to stay and work in the US simply because in other parts of the world this sort of creative work is impossible to do most anywhere else in the world due to a distrust and hatred of Free Speech.

This US tradition of Free Speech enables production of creative products by setting a floor from which to create.

The murders of Journalists in Mexico and Russia, along with persecution of writers in China end up as Hollywood movies we pay to watch, and they steal to watch.

Unionization is fairly higher in Motion Picture Production than in other sectors of the manufacturing industries of the US. Most every actor you see in the movies or on TV is a Screen Actors Guild member.

I certainly benefited from SAG rates and procedures even when I wasn't a member. They made sure I got paid. Sure not like the Government makes sure I get paid. Not like I've got now a good insurance policy from AIG, or Stock certificates in Investment Firms, and Banks. Least in Alaska you get a check for some shared oil assets of the state.

I was on unemployment for a good while when I lost my paycheck job. One of the strictures on how I was to use that money was that I was not to be attempting to use it to start a business, but was required to use it to maintain while applying for jobs with other businesses. We might want to reconsider those sorts of regulations regarding how the unemployed are allowed to use their money.

As far as my self labeling as an anarchist, I'm not very strict about it except for recognition of the two main responsibilities of any government as Defense, and Education.

As a consequence of some of our discussions about things that seriously affect what opportunities we have to live lives wherein we get to do satisfying work I cannot help but endorse for the US greater support for students beyond High School. The prediction that another financial crisis of loan defaults for higher education is roiling in the wings is best addressed now, and not later.

I intended to write something shorter, but have failed at sound bite or poetry here.

While I can be very critical of the US, and have created my own little flagged nation as a work of conceptual art from which I come as much as as a US citizen, hiding in the open, I do love the US for one thing that I would want to carry to any other place I might find profitable to live in, and that is Free Speech. I know of one area of the economy where the US excels in making a product that flows out of that ideal. If we advance Free Speech internationally, we become more likely to get paid for one of our top exports. Weird World isn't it?

Let us look at Disneyland to see what paradigms to apply so as to regain economic strength? The other spectrum is the Grateful Dead model. Disney still exists whereas the Grateful Dead don't really. Woodstock Nation doesn't exist. Burning Man has an airport of its own...

The Pop Artist Andy Warhol had a Factory. The beautiful art is beautiful because it is truth, not just because it is beautiful. So for the modern artist Warhol, the Factory was ironically part of the beauty of work. Making more art required a "Factory".

By having Disneylands in many different countries the art factory of Disney combines Grateful Dead business precepts with standard operating procedures. Disney sells tickets, the Grateful Dead sold tickets, but toured. Dolly Parton has Dollyland?

Imagine income from US leased airbases all over the world part came from little Disneylands on everyone of them? Is not Mickey Mouse loved everywhere?

Toys I tell you! Making Toys Is and Will be a Secure and Growth Industry!

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#55
In reply to #52

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/07/2010 2:12 AM

Food, shelter, protection, health, education, & entertainment. Those that control those in the government can screw with them all. Moron wants to spend $50 billion more. It's time for a putsch after the harvest. Maybe we should make a movie about it :o)

I am just about ready to get hard and fast. You with me?

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#8

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 7:31 PM

Sad really.

Manufacturing requires engineers (EE/ME/ChE/SE) to design, build, maintain and upgrade the production plants and a LOT of those are overseas now.

Unless you're into making high tech weapons, engineering in the US is no longer a career with many options.

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#12

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 11:17 PM

With total government employment (local, state and federal) representing about 8% of the workforce, it looks like the producers still outnumber the leeches non-producers (if we combine manufacturing with farm labor). However, when one adds in the 14.6 million contractors (2006 figures), it looks like government employment is nearly double the productive sector...And, of course, it has been demonstrated time and again that a proper education can be detrimental for a government servant...

It would be interesting to see a similar chart regarding the changes in government employment over the same period...

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#13

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 11:25 PM

You must also understand that not only is it unrealistic for everyone to be an engineer or high tech, but that we are going to start to see a "giant gorilla" in the room in the near future. A labor force without real options, as witnessed in past societies, may decide to kick the dominoes.

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#14

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

08/31/2010 11:29 PM

The chart really isn't surprising at all. For the last fifty years, business has been driving to expand profits any way possible. Moving jobs that paid a living wage to another country that doesn't quite have the overhead (health insurance, overtime, safe working conditions, child labor laws) has been the quick and easy way for companies to do that. Companies are all about quick and easy today.

I have been in industrial maintenance for twenty some years and were I to do it over, I wouldn't get any where near this field. We have a dearth of skilled labor, I hear that complaint over and over again. But we created this situation, and were happy to do so. School funding has diminished steadily, trades education has been removed from many if not most high schools. Secondary education has increasingly been directed into different directions.

Even for those who do follow a vocational path, there is little reward. The pay is not really that good, benefits have disappeared, and while there is a demand for these people, it is very difficult to get a position with out experience. If you do get a position, what you have to look forward to is ever increasing hours and days worked, raises that almost keep up with the cost of living, benefits that steadily disappear, the company you work for changing hands a few times if not more often. Put into the mix it can be a dirty physically demanding job, with long hours and at times very poor working conditions, and the fact the industries today treat their employees with so much respect. I can't imagine why people aren't lining up around the block for this.

Once you make assistant manager at what ever store/burger joint/what have you, and your wages and benefits will be pretty much on par as what a tradesman will make.

It comes down to money, business couldn't care less where the product is made as long as the profits are maximized. Perhaps there was a day when that was a factor, but that day is long gone.

We are only reaping what we have sown.

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#23
In reply to #14

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 9:56 AM

It's catching up with us too. Like an addict, once we admit there's a problem, we can begin to repair and grow. Just don't ever give up. And, remember you vote with your dollars.

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#31
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 3:44 PM

I can't think why this would be off topic? There have been millions of jobs and thousands of factories outsourced to third world countries. it is a fact! This has had a serious detrimental effect to the economy, and to the education and job potentials, and it is totally on point. ga

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#35
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 4:53 PM

Doesn't seem off topic to me....

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#16

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 4:39 AM

For every one person actually doing something there are half a dozen, auditing, managing, accounting, taxing and administering them.
When my Big Sis started teaching in further education there were about 6 lecturers to every one admin staff, by the time she retired the ratio had been reversed.
Del

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#25
In reply to #16

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 12:50 PM

Del- I have seen similar numbers for the US educational system, but I don't have access to real numbers at this point. This is a case where we get less education for more dollars spent...

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#17

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 5:13 AM

The experiences being described here by US citizens are those that we had in the UK some years ago.

Until about 1960, manufacturing, mining and the technical industries were the major employers in the UK economy and the "Made in England" mark was still respected around the world.

It was an unfortunate coincidence that Trade Union forces and certain Government politics fought out their differences just as the manufacturing and science might of the Far East began to flex its muscles. Add to this the burgeoning wealth of the working classes and their aspirations for their children not to have the 'blue collar' jobs that they had.

Training for truly skilled work (e.g. apprenticeships) took a real dive when virtually all government inducements to train were removed and the profit motive drove many formally respected companies to abandon training schools and to rely on poaching skills from others.

The attitude many young people have to 'geek' subjects has also been mentioned. It seems to be common in the USA and UK. Students shrug off 'difficult' studies in favour of media, sociology, art etc. and while there is a place for these, they won't put food on the table in the extreme.

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#21
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 9:26 AM

Actually art is a pretty hard row to hoe. Still some succeed at it through hard continuous work and sometimes luck too. Read a bit awhile back that said any job for which instructions can be written, can be outsourced, so on that score art is a somewhat practical choice.

Like anything else it's not for everybody.

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#26

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 1:50 PM

Anyone know the answer to : where are the people working?

Total population = kids under 18 + employable people + retired people

Total employment = Non farm workers + Farm workers

Non Farm workers = manufacturing + Govt Workers + Managers + ???

Are there metrics on which sector the jobs grew to make up the delta?

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#27
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 2:26 PM
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#42
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/02/2010 3:20 AM

The world is flat ... the world is round ... The truth lay at only one end. The problem was that the masses fill the other end. Otherwise ... there would have been no problem.

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#28
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 2:35 PM

There is a list of employment "buckets" Here:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/11

They have Govt, durable goods, Education and healthcare, leisure hospitality, Retail, Natural resources and mining, trade transpportation Utilities, and a host of others... including varioous service type categories...

Milo

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#33

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 4:22 PM

Thanks Milo!. I will analyze this over the weekend.

One thing it misses is the people in prison :-(

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States

We can discuss this problem in a separate topic but its really sad situation.

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#34
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/01/2010 4:28 PM

If your register, You will have the ability to email me through CR4 and we can work up a nice follow up.

I agree with your point about incarcerated.

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#46

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/02/2010 8:53 AM

Everyone seems to blame 1) the schools, 2) companies, 3) the government, 4) others

The change is nothing new or sudden. We have watched it coming for 50 years.

The education requirements are stiffer for most any position except rag picker or McDonalds.

It is 'unAmerican' (I am American BTW) but people might consider trying to help themselves as well as sitting and waiting. For those choosing to sit and wait for someone else to help them - your gonna have a long wait!

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#51

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/04/2010 7:36 PM

I am reminded of the town where everyone was so poor that they lived by taking in each other's laundry.

You cannot consume what has not yet been produced. Corollary: printing money and hiring more regulators does nothing to put more food on the table or shoes on the kids.

If you choose to buy products from abroad, they must be paid for with something other than printed paper. Germany, post WW-1, and Iceland, at present, both learned the hard way that you can't pay foriegn creditors in hard currency if you have nothing to sell (export) for hard currency. The US will learn that soon.

Our democratic instinct, the urge to not discriminate, has led to an educational sysem where one size fits all (let no child be left behind). The result is that those who have a talent, be it welding or music or solving differential equations, don't fit in and are told to sit down, be quiet, and do what the authorities tell them to do. Since all must succeed at standard tasks (which may include gluing cotton ballls to colored paper and insisting that evolution is "only a theory"), the acceptable level of achievement is lowered again and again, so everyone can succeed and have self-esteem and, they hope, graduate from high school, even if they can't read well.

We have freedom of religion, separation of church and state; the government can't tell you which church to attend. We need freedom of education, a separation of school and state. A school you can't walk away from is a prison. One does not learn critical thinking or creativity in a prison.

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#53
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/06/2010 8:39 AM

An excellent addition to this thread. Exactly the situation in the UK for many years.

USA will catch up with the UKs decline within a very short time now, unless the population and government 'get smart' instead of dumbing down.

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#54
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Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/06/2010 8:53 PM

What's it cost, and who pays for education through the 14 grade, or High School, and Community College in the UK? I'm to the conclusion that schooling through community college is the way to go far as free and compulsory as much as High School is compulsory in the US.

One nice thing about even the way things are now at Community Colleges is that when you drop out you don't lose scads of money.

Personally I don't see the decline in legacy manufacturing as the end of manufacturing. I do see issues of intellectual property rights across the board as significant problems for the US to address.

I've already written two glaze over posts in this discussion. Promised not to do it again to myself.

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#56
In reply to #54

Re: U.S. Manufacturing as a Percentage of Total Employment

09/07/2010 7:33 AM

For the vast, vast majority of us in the UK, schooling until the age of 16 is free - paid via tax.

Post-16 the picture begins to change. What we call 'college' generally starts with courses for 16+ and may, or may not involve payment. A craft technical course (say, a first-level electricians course) may cost about $2300 for an acqademic year (just one day each week). Some may get this for free, depending upon circumstances. It takes three years to achive academic qualification as an electrician.

Staying on at school, until the age of 18, to do higher level academic studies is also generally free - fine for the academic types.

University places in England charge tuition fees per academic year, which currently start, I believe, at about £3500/$5400, plus all the ancilliary costs, lodgings, etc.

No fees in Scotland.

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