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Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

Posted August 12, 2013 10:58 AM

From Electronics360:

As with all engineering decisions, assessing the risks of adopting a new technology requires demonstrating that the benefits of implementation outweigh the costs.  The accuracy of that analysis depends on the validity of all boundary conditions and assumptions, as well as an accurate characterization of that great unknown - the future.  Small errors in assumptions will probably not invalidate a go/no-go decision.  But the farther out you have to project a break-even point, the more likely errors may affect that decision.

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#1

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 4:41 PM

No.

Not now.

Not ever.

No money to be made with a 25 year life cycle.

Not to mention advances in technology rendering today's high end PV panels obsolete in 3 years.

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#2

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 6:31 PM

it really depends on how they're used, so a static panel installed flat on a roof would have a different "output" over time compared to a panel on a solar tracker. so could some panels still have a measurable output after 25 years? sure. would they still charge the battery bank or turn the fan? nope! they aren't self regenerating, after being showered long enough with photons they give up their spare electrons and output declines

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 6:45 PM

I used to have solar panels on my boat. Photons, dirt and bird poop kill them much sooner than 25 years.

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 7:28 PM

what is there after all that ? did you remove 'em?

The one I made in 1974 and electro-less plated lasted over 15 years (bell labs kit), then I lost it in a move.

Are there any living types, like that follow more than the created grid of a common leaf and are more life-efficient, and but could be using some living material that regenerates a bit?

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#7
In reply to #2

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 11:12 PM

I some how fail to understand how electrons are depleted with time. Though I am not an expert in this field, but understand the basics that in a controlled doped semiconductor which forms a junction when sufficient energy is given to jump Schottky Barrier, either by forward bias or by thermal energy or by Photon (EM waves), the junction conducts resulting in flow of current. This phenomena is happening in PV Cells by Photon energy, this being a close cycle, flow of electrons resulting from low potential to high potential terminals outside the PV Panels and vice versa inside the panel (Current opposite to flow of electrons), thus doing work - but no loss of electrons as this is a close cycle.

The light energy is converted to Electric Power. If I draw a correct similarity Between a Thermal Power Plant and Solar PV cell. In case of a Thermal Power Plant the fuel burnt is the input energy and electricity is generated in turbine Generator set. Similarly in PV Power, Photon is the fuel and PV cell is the Turbo Generator Set. The PV Cell if operated within design limits and maintained - it shall last more than life of a boiler or turbo generator set as there are no moving parts in a PV cell.

Pl correct me if I am wrong and my due apology for the wrong statement.

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 11:24 PM

You fail to take into account the "dirt, cloud, rain and bird poop" factor when performing your analysis and make it more difficult to judge accurately the photonic power needed to excite a, "controlled doped semiconductor which forms a junction when sufficient energy is given to jump Schottky Barrier...the junction conducts resulting in flow of current".

Not to mention the "photon factor".

I'm sure JP76 will make the customary contribution of sunshine.

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#9
In reply to #8

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 12:28 AM

That could be measured with a solar cell, which would put out about 0.00001 volt.

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#11
In reply to #8

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 1:15 AM

Dirt cloud rain and bird poop has nothing to do with electron depletion theory in your earlier comments.

Most of these are maintenance and operation issues. Pl read my note again - which says if operated with in specified parameters - that means you do not over load or over heat or subject these to voltage surges and spikes -

And if maintained - clean them regularly of dust and bird poops etc. check your connections of protection box and set proper protections when running on Grid - no doubt that these will last 25 years.

Panels can become obsolete due to technology - this happens with Thermal, Hydro and Nuclear plants also and boilers, reactors, turbines and generators are being upgraded with age of Power Plant and some time demolished and replaced with new - same is possible with PV Power Plant - in such cases up gradation of components or total replacement is justified by returns.

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#16
In reply to #8

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 8:59 AM

we look forward to your razzing, reminds me of an 8 year older brother

Lyn: does anything get maintained?

did you find that replenishing living solar/?

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#5

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 7:44 PM

I paid a fair amount of money for a solar-panel / utility shed light kit. The solar panel cracked in less than a year and the money I spent was wasted.

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#6

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/12/2013 10:55 PM

The answer, as has been demonstrated by previous responses is yes and no!

Some factors affecting longevity are:

1. quality of the initial product - materials used, seals, passivation, quality of design and manufacturing assembly, etc

2. environment in which it is used/abused

3. physical damage

Some failure/degradation modes:

1. repetitive thermal stress - breakage of connections/silicon wafers/amorphous substrate

2. impact damage - hail tree branches etc

3. corrosion - particularly in a marine environment

4. molecular degradation due to UV/high energy particles/thermal migration

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#10

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 12:48 AM

A crystalline PV panel in a quality housing will last more than 30 years. Cheap amorphous panels maybe five years. The seals, wires, soldering, and framing are important parts. Go German.

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#12

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 1:58 AM

You can insure on that bases and then hammer them if they don't work for you to get new one.

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#17
In reply to #12

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 9:14 AM

Do people factor in the cost of the insurance in their ROI?

The second part of your statement is something in the U.S. we call 'fraud'. You can go to jail for that but unfortunately it rarely happens and we collectively all pay higher insurance rates for those who intentionally defraud insurance companies.

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#20
In reply to #17

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 2:39 PM

You mean there is no fraud in insurance in USA or all those do fraud go to Alcatraz. I think insurance itself is a fraud to live on others money without working. Anyway, it was a joke on 25 years life span of the solar cells and you know not many companies retain their name for 25 years these days so with whom you will make claim after 25 years? It is something expected and there must be some bases for it. Almost all company Director may be dead after 25 years or company may simply go bank corrupt much before that due to advancement in technology. If you get low price electricity then will you still spend money on solar batteries? You may scrap them yourself. Just look back at the last 25 years and you will know if you have anything that is 25 year old other than your family.

Solar cells bound to have some accidents in 25 years, like you may drop a hammer while working with them. It is all statistical and is very well predicted positive in quantum mechanics so it must happen somewhere sometime.

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#21
In reply to #20

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 2:57 PM

There is definitely insurance fraud in the U.S. and few if any go to jail (or punished in any form) for it. That's too bad, because we collectively pay higher premiums as a result.

Insurance isn't a fraud, it's a bet in the form of a contract. I'm betting I will have a covered peril in the contract period and the insurance company is betting I won't. I only use insurance for things I cannot readily replace myself, for example, my life and house. Some insurance is mandated if you want to drive a motor vehicle on U.S. roads (liability only, other coverages generally optional).

My son is driving the 1987 VW Jetta my wife and bought when we first got together. Most of my Craftsman hand tools are at least 25 years old. Craftsman guarantees their tools for life. When I buy products, I look for a company that will be around for 25 years (or more). All these people who buy 25-year PV panels from the lowest price fly-by-night companies will be licking their wounds soon enough. There is no shortage of buyer regret in this fledgling industry.

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#22
In reply to #21

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 3:19 PM

I worked only for 22 years for Nuclear Research and that is life time job. Perhaps my father's farm house may hove some old things but I disposed off almost everything by now. If solar panel lasts the life of your house then sure it is great. However I don't trust as I don't have 25 years now to see what they will do. I plan according to my life.

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#13

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 4:13 AM

Yes, why not! But will it be still functional? Will its output match the output from when it was new? Can you easily change out damaged cells?

What service is required for a solar panel? It definitely needs cleaning!

The better question would have been if a solar panel will serve its purpose for 25 years.

They will last the longest on the scrap yards where nobody wants them and somebody will complain about its being a waste of resources or a hazard for nature and humans.

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#14
In reply to #13

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 4:45 AM

The 25 year lifetime, if I remember correctly, is based on them producing 80% of new output at 25years, ie a 20% reduction in output but still quite functional and useable.

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#18
In reply to #13

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 10:10 AM

((not "picking on you" here, Idea...just USING:)) "Yes, why not!"

Of COURSE , 'why not'...

everybody K N O W S that hail only attacks automobiles...

... R I G H T ...?

as for SELF , *I* am not investing in any panels until they start embedding little chips in the circuitry (inconspicuously, of course!), that perform at least 2 additional functions:

1) make them obsolete in 15 years instead of 25, and,

2) make it impossible to mix the panels with ANY OTHER manufacturer's panels in a large array.

...

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#23
In reply to #18

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 8:50 PM

#3 The NSA will record all of your power usage and archive that data forever.

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#24
In reply to #23

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/14/2013 9:23 AM

[OT'd] - And, just before the expiry-date of those "Generation-1" panels, a new Bill will be passed in Washington:

Any money-savings experienced through usage of these panels (to which tax-dollars went, to assist with R&D, as well as for business tax-incentives)... those savings will now be taxed , RETROACTIVELY (to their install-date), at the 'wholly-fair' rate of only 68.723%

done-for-the-day, with the cynical rant...

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#15

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 4:57 AM

Sure, if you leave it in the box and never put it on the roof.

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#19

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/13/2013 12:59 PM

I think the way the basic question is stated is wrong, or at least biased against solar power. An individual solar panel may or may not last 25 years, but an individual panel is not that big an investment to amortize over 25 years. Not that one is cheap, but not expensive enough to consider a 25 year pay back.

The question should be asked of a solar power generating installation consisting of a multitude of panels and associated hardware. In that case I say absolutely. The operator/owner would have to consider the operating costs, including cleaning and damage repair/replacement of individual panels and other components, plus upgrades if needed, but the entire installation could last indefinitely if maintained. In that sense solar power is no different than any other capitol investment where you measure the cost of purchase and operation against the revenue saved or generated over some chosen time frame.

Note that I did not say anything about being cost effective or profitable. I don't have that kind of data. I just know that nothing lasts for 25 years without maintenance input and some loss of output, so why should solar power be any different.

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#25

Re: Does a Solar Panel Really Last 25 Years?

08/19/2013 1:41 PM

Some cells in a crystal pannel may still function for 25 yrs. The wiring ect might not last 15 yrs. No one will repair them if the wiring ect fails the repair man would rather install a new one.

You will never ever see the rated wattage and dust and bird droppings will quickly reduce what power it produced when new. I worked in R&D for the largest Photovoltaic company in the US. They were experimenting with bitter wire insulation. We couldn't find a insulation bitter enough to stop rodents from chewing on the wires. I figure they have worked out that problem by now. They had other problems with UV decay in bright, arid locations. We had cells that still worked after 20 yrs.

These pannels are great in areas that do not AC power and the power demand is low. They put the water windmills out of business within a decade. Remember most farms used to have them? Solar is probably more echnomical than wind.

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