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New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

Posted January 08, 2008 8:09 AM

From SPACE.com:

An explosive star within our galaxy is showing signs of an impending eruption, at least in a cosmic time frame, and has for quite some time. From 1838 to 1858, the star called Eta Carinae brightened to rival the light of Sirius, the brightest star in the sky, and then faded to a dim star. Since 1940 it has been brightening again, and scientists think Eta Carinae will detonate in 10,000 to 20,000 years.

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Guru

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#1

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 8:43 AM

Glad to get the early warning on this one, eh?

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#20
In reply to #1

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 5:35 PM

Right-o! WE'RE DOOMED! Doomed, I tell you, doomed...none of us will get out alive!

Oh, right, we don't anyway, do we? Never mind then...

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#2

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 9:32 AM

Oh brother.

Heres the "New Risk" --

"In a paper about to be published in the journal Astrobiology, Thomas explains that even short exposures to blue light can increase insomnia, reduce resistance to infection and is being studied as a possible risk of cancer."

Give me a break.

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#7
In reply to #2

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 2:42 PM

Funny. On the news tonight I heard that we ought to be going out in the sun to avoid getting cancer. I didn't hear the whole article, but listen again on BBC Radio 4 PM will hold the answers.

Take care out there...

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 7:53 PM

It's got to do with possible tumor suppression of vitamin D. Makes sense that the body would develop an antidote to the damaging effects of sunshine from a process involving that same sunshine.

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#3

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 9:48 AM

<....and scientists think....>

Do they? Do they really think?

The media have given the impression that scientists have found a negative spin on virtually everything in society these days. "Everything is bad for you".

So who's dropping dead, then?

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 9:53 AM

I agree. Usually when you read a headline that makes you roll your eyes regarding science, its because some reporter with no technical background has dumbed it down for the public, except in the process has completely lost the point of the research.

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#13
In reply to #3

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 10:50 AM

Agreed!!! Is this deja vu in case the media cant get us excited about GW?

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#18
In reply to #13

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 5:30 PM

It's deja moo - the feeling that we've heard this bull before...

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#21
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Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 6:52 PM

PW,

We could reflect now on how fragile we are in relation to the universe. Consider the narrow range of conditions that will support life. The temperature has to be between freezing and a little over 100 degF. Oxygen has to be 20% more or less. We need at least a litre of very clean water per day. Radiation has to be very low. We are basically water balloons. So perhaps "everything is bad for us" is correct.

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#5

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 10:36 AM

Eta Carinae is about 8,000 light-years away.

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 11:04 AM

So long as it stays there, that's fine. Phew!

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#17
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Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 4:30 PM

Doesnt that mean we have 8,000 years give or take to address this problem? I doubt mankind will still be here in 8,000 years. Maybe somewhere else (if we dont kill each other off), but not here.

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#22
In reply to #17

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/10/2008 12:23 AM

Hi Guest,

No, it doesn't mean that. It might have exploded 7,999 years, 11 months and 29 days ago, so tomorrow you die!

S

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#19
In reply to #5

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 5:31 PM

Eta Carinae is about 8,000 light-years away.

That is close enough for a Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) to cause a mass extinction on Earth. Any supernova or binary neutron star collision *anywhere in our galaxy* threatens us. GRBs are the most violent phenomenon we know of (other than the Big Bang). Some scientists suggest that a GRB caused the mass extinction that occurred on Earth 450 million years ago.

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#9

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/08/2008 10:52 PM

Well, you folks in the Northern Hemisphere are going to be OK, it appears.

The only way we are going to know if it happens, is when that extra radiation arrives.

Perhaps some of you could consider taking in a few lodgers, during the emergency, which normally lasts for about 10,000 years.

Kind Regards....

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#10

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 6:16 AM

Me thinks that the greatest danger would be that of extra debris in the universe. While we can measure the degree of gamma rays we can't predict or see the rocks coming until it's too late?

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#11
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Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 7:18 AM

Ah. The gamma rays haven't arrived yet. And if the rocks have less than infinite mass then they'll be a long way behind them (ask 'Jorrie').

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#12
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Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 8:30 AM

Hey, this could be important! Is it worth my while 'topping up' my super fund (pension) or, is retirement not going to happen?

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#14

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 10:58 AM

Hi,

it may be 8000 light-years from us, but a mean supernova has the same power output as the whole galaxy of estimated 100x109 stars.

As from our sun we get roughly 1KW per square-meter of surface at a distance of 150 million Km we have to calculate how much would arrive here from eta carinae.

This calculation is not correct for a lot of reasons but let us try for a first estimate:

1 light-year is 9.5x1012km or 70,000 times the distance from sun to earth.

So eta c. has a distance of 560 million times the distance earth to sun.

Light intensity is diminishing with the square of distance, so (560X106)2=31x1016 so if we divide the number of stars (all assumed sun-like) by this number we get 3 x 10-7.

So we will get from eta carinae 0.3mW per square meter of projected earth surface if it is going up as an ordinary supernova.

So the heat will not be a problem nor the light as this is much less than the amount that is coming up from the earths mantle.

But: a considerable fraction of this is coming as x-rays.

So somebody who is knowledgeable about x-rays shall continue this calculation.

1 gray is equivalent to absorbed energy of 1 Joule per kg of body mass.

5 gray will kill 50% of exposed men.

But how much is absorbed is depending on wavelength so please help in further estimation.

Two merging neutron stars will be much worse!

RHABE

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#15
In reply to #14

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 12:14 PM

Well done. Some numbers onto the matter in question. Good stuff.

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#16
In reply to #14

Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/09/2008 3:25 PM

Does this mean that all the women survive? Hum, I'll top up the wife's super fund then. That should fox the tax office!

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#23
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Re: New Risk to Earth Found in Supernova Explosions

01/12/2008 1:52 AM

Ha! Hahahahhahhaahhaha!

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