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How About a Better Bailout?

Posted January 11, 2009 8:17 AM

As long as the U.S. Congress deems it vital to the economy to provide a taxpayer-funded bailout of the Big Three automakers, why not add a fourth? The rationale behind the bailout is that they are too big to let fail. And because of their work, it also is postured that they are vital to Defense and even Aerospace industries. But what about a little car company with a future. Does it makes sense to invest in a company like Tesla Motors, who with some extra funding might be able to speed the development of more efficient battery systems and lower the price of its electric auto by $20,000? And where else might that better battery pack technology be used?

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#1

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 12:42 AM

I suppose we should bailout Hummer? Vital to defense! I would rather kick a few mil to Blink's project!!!

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#2

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 8:43 AM

I see many people that make this statement. The problem with teh electric car is really two-fold. On one hand the energy storage problem is a crippling blow to wide spread acceptance.

The other issue is that there simply isn't a market for these cars or their siblings such as the Prius.

This shocks some people to hear this, but it is simple marketing analysis to arrive at this conclusion. Look at the 10 most popular cars sold in 2008. Prius wasn't even on the list. The number 1 selling vehicle in 2008 was the Ford F-150 pickup truck. Second was an SUV. Here is the list:

* Ford F-Series: 515,513
* Chevy Silverado: 465,065
* Toyota Camry: 436,617
* Honda Accord: 372,789
* Toyota Corolla: 351,007
* Honda Civic: 339,289
* Nissan Altima: 269,668
* Chevy Impala: 265,840
* Dodge Ram: 245,840
*

Honda CR-V: 197,279

Frankly, this is what "people" want to drive, even in the face of high gas prices.

The question is, what is really causing the American automaker such financial distress? The answer is the "well-meaning" government and the high cost of labor.

Our government has been trying to push the populace kicking and screaming into small alternative fuel vehicles in the worst way. The result of this push is a lesson in Newtonian Physics; specifically, that every action has an equal, but opposite reaction.

Government sets standards by which automakers must play in the "free" market. For instance, automakers must have and sell a percentage of their fleet that has an average fuel mileage. This means for every large vehicle like the F-150 they sell, they must also sell several small vehicles that have higher gas mileage to balance out their fleet average.

Imagine this game. You have a business selling candy. You sell chocolate, and rock candy. The government mandates that 50% of your sales must be rock candy. However, 75% of your customers only buy chocolate. Normally, you would make 3 chocolate bars for every one rock candy you produce and your sales will be the maximum possible. However, by law you can't do that so you are forced to sell less chocolate than the market wants just to meet your legal quotas. You already have saturated the rock candy market and can't sell more. So, the net result is a loss in revenue.

Automakers face the same problem when government mandates CAFE standards (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) that the majority of the buying public does not care as much about in their list of purchasing wants.

The government means well buy trying to reduce pollution and foreign oil dependence, but the result (opposite reaction) is a huge cost to the taxpayer in the form of rescue funds. Essentially, our government is forcing us to pay for a government controlled business's economic woes. This is sort of like a public economic proctology exam. We get it in the end.

The second burden for automakers is the high cost of labor. US autoworkers are the highest paid on the planet. Auto unions have done an excellent job at getting the highest pay and benefits for their constituents, but the cost burden is unsustainable and likely to collapse. Unions are also powerful lobbyists and wield a lot of political power. In part, this is driving the bail out.

My point is that free enterprise will seek its own level, like water. Anytime government takes action with the free market there are repercussions that cost tax dollars. The latest round of auto bailout cries is just that reaction to an industry that lives, in part, inside a straight jacket.

Some laws are necessary to keep free enterprise free, but it is very easy for laws to get out of hand and cause an avalanche of adverse effects.

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#7
In reply to #2

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 3:46 PM

A-H,

Your analysis is a very reasonable one, but not the only analysis one can put on the data. Very significant, but little-observed, are at least these 6 factors:

1. The influence of advertising, particularly the common types that rely on unstated but well-cultivated motivators such as power, primacy, or sex.

2. The subtle but strong motivation of "keeping up with the neighbors".

3. The historic trend towards more power and more frills for the same basic function--viewing this through the lens of necessity.

4. Increasing physical infrastructural reliance on the types of transportation only automobiles provide easiest.

5. A societal mindset that places the self and the present at the center of importance and decreases community and the future.

6. The corporate approaches that limit true choice of fuel economy (i.e. many models from the 1970's and 1980's gave better economy than anything sold by the big-3 in the last 10 years, and still met all the applicable pollution standards).

Your concluding sentence: "Frankly, this is what "people" want to drive, even in the face of high gas prices." is a based on an a false relationship--if I bought it, I therefore wanted. If what you want is not available, or too costly, or socially second-class, then the relationship you posit is not valid. I saw the fickleness of "wants" during the oil embargo days of the late 1970's, and have observed the consistent inability of us to learn from that period and do better since. Perhaps we are socially 2-years old in wanting what we want right now, regardless.

--JMM

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#9
In reply to #7

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 4:19 PM

TOO true! The vehicle I'd choose if I got all my druthers, no car company would build for me, and if they did, I likely couldn't afford the special treatment that would represent (even though almost everything about it would be toned down or bare bones minimum). We buy the cars/trucks we are told we want, and we are led into the trap of expecting instant gratification by the advertising media routinely. You have to keep on your toes to avoid them even when you know it's happening, because they are exceedingly good at what they do. Wool-pulling, mirroring smoke, stuffing pigs into pokes, etc. that is...

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#10
In reply to #7

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 4:51 PM

Good points, but if people wanted something different, someone will step up to the plate to build it if there is enough profit to do it. The only thing that would prevent that from happening would be government.

You might say that the Big Three might prevent that from happening, but you would be giving them too much credit.

Industry follows the market and viable competition insures that happens.

Personally, I think many, if not most, American auto buyers make poor choices when it comes to what they buy. I have a right to that opinion, but I don't have a right to mandate that opinion onto others and I would defend to my death to prevent such a mandate from ever materializing and robbing freedom of choice from the people.

My opinion is that we spend too much effort trying tell people what they should think and not enough effort teaching people how to think critically.

Caveat emptor.

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#3

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 9:15 AM

The way I see it, these companies do not deserve to be bailed out. It is because their terrible financial decisions that led them to this disaster. Yes, Toyota received its first loss, but we don't see them on the brink of destruction. Companies (and people for that matter) need to focus on long-term growth, not short-term profits that will eventually turn into short-term losses then long-term losses. Japan rose from the ashes of World War II following this economic plan. Whose economy would you rather have now?

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#4

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 2:20 PM

Last I knew, Tesla Motors wasn't verging on failure and pleading for a bailout. Don't throw a life preserver to a man who ain't drowning!

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#5

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 2:30 PM

Does it makes sense to invest in a company like Tesla Motors[?]

Only because Congress and the Federal Reserve (international bankers) have removed the fair playing field. If you are going to be Socialist (Democracy) then at least be fair about it.

Brad

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 2:35 PM

Sadly you are right. I am not one to bash a president, but dear Lord, we are turning into a Socialist government, and it is only getting worse with the president-elect's policies. Robbing from Peter to give to Paul...

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#8
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Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 4:10 PM

Fortunately (or Unfortunately), the people of the USA get the government they vote for. All I heard during the past campaign (rhymes with "pain") was a bunch of name-calling and posturing by political hacks from both parties. I still firmly believe that we need at least one more political party.

Additionally, we need laws in the USA that prevent individuals convicted of felonious crimes from being elected to ANY governmental office. Certainly there have been a number of such individuals elected/reelected to the congress and senate who would not be eligible.

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#11
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Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 4:59 PM

"Additionally, we need laws in the USA that prevent individuals convicted of felonious crimes from being elected to ANY governmental office. Certainly there have been a number of such individuals elected/reelected to the congress and senate who would not be eligible."

Be careful with that axe Eugene. What you propose is a two-edge sword. If it were law one could simple politically arrest and charge a person to derail political foes. A corrupt political party or group could sweep innocent opponents off the map and this has happened so many times in history.

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#12
In reply to #6

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 5:15 PM

socialist-smoshalist.

the fundamental primary function of the economy is to support the PEOPLE of the country.. not just the priveleged. It should be a fair system, level playing field, and service the needs of all. There are ways to do that, and we are trillions of dollars in debt, not because of the poorer people, but because of the greedy ones, the military spenders, ... don't even go there.

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#13
In reply to #12

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 5:29 PM

"...we are trillions of dollars in debt, not because of the poorer people, but because of the greedy ones..."

Oh, AMEN, brother Man! Truer words were never spake...

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#20
In reply to #13

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 9:07 PM

It is off course the communists fault and the socialists!

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#14
In reply to #12

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 5:33 PM

What is/are the point(s) you are trying to make? I am interested in what you have to say, but what you are saying seems disjointed, almost a series of rants.

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#15
In reply to #14

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 7:04 PM

lol.. i'm at work with only a minute to write.. I apologize. and for sure it is a series of rants... lol I'll try to make the following a bit more sequential and connected.

1. We are a group of beings

2. There are certain things common to all of us

3. A will to live, and minimum requirements for life.

4. An interrelated system of value definition, that tends to be represented by money.

5. the definition of Value, in an attempt to acheive some semblance of validity, must start with its source.

6. Value is something that is attributed by a human being, to goods, services, situations, or information.

7. Collectively, this Value is called the Economy, which includes both that which is valued (GNP) and that which represents the value (Money)

8. The first problem is that the Money does not accurately represent the GNP. The difference between the two is called inflation, or deflation. (positive or negative)

9. If you look in the books for a definition of inflation, it will be "the appearance of rising prices"

10. The real definiton is "the difference between the money supply (created by the central bank) and the GNP." It is artificial.

11. The fact that inflation has increased steadily for almost a hundred years is by design.

12. In that design there are periodic bust and boom cycles. Each bust cycle has "Bailout" as the remedy. The money for the bailout comes from the same source as inflation. It is fabricated out of nothing by the central bank. In fact, this is simply a tax on the people.

13. There are no reserves of money with which to pay Bailouts, except in the future. All bailouts tax the future. It is borrowing from income not yet earned. This is what tips the balance on our collective hamster wheel, and forces us to work that much harder, for the same production of value.

14. In the game of bailout, the supersized corporations win, because they are first at the tap to receive the newly invented money, and therefore, that money still has the same value as the rest of the money supply, as it takes time for the dilution (inflation) to take effect.

15. These corporations are the last people who should be given good money, as they have shown nothing but the competency to waste it, steal it, and not earn it with honest labour. Its a government handout for inefficiency.

16. and sadly done in the name of free enterprise, when that is the last thing that it is.

If you truly wish to restart the economy, first get rid of the central bank. Stop taxing the people to death, and they will be able to produce more than enough to get the economy going again. Stop spending 30 billion a year on war, and spend 2 billion on fostering new, Small business investment. It will make all the difference. Stop wasting the money on the greedy mega-corporations, who have shown such lack of care for the people, or respect for the investment capital. Even in a pyramid scheme, the top gets knocked off every generation. What we have with central banks is worse.

chris

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#18
In reply to #15

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 8:28 PM

Nice clarification!

I agree with all of your points, except the point about stop spending 30 billion for war. How do you propose to do that? In fact our enemies would be most satisfied with that as well, but I have an issue with jumping back into the stone age or conversion to some religion I have no interest in worshiping just so I can be spared the sword.

While it seems simple to just stop fighting war, the alternative is to capitulate to those who are more than happy to wage it. For those willing to wage it on us their first wish is to repeal democracy and free enterprise.

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#22
In reply to #18

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 9:54 PM

Violence begets violence. That which we focus on tends to grow. When we spend 30 billion dollars on military expenditure.. and commit our best and brightest to go forth and fight... we create an international focus of violence. It is only delusion to call it defense, or freedom fighting. that is pure fiction. We do NOT need a one world government, and we do not need to use violence to spread our form of government. The money creates the war. If you pull the plug on the money.. eventually the war will stop. The billions spent in the past have been partly spent training and arming those you call enemies. In part, they are agressive because their territories have been invaded. I side with those who call 9-11 a tragedy of epic proportions, whose causes lie entirely within the borders of the US. the enemy is within. I grieve the loss of those lives, but there is a grand deception at work. Violence begets violence. What needs to happen is to stop adding energy to the system. stop spending all that money.. plan to curtail it. Announce and SELL the withdrawal from non-american owned properties.. get out and stay out.. return to being more isolationist. Get our own houses in order. Fight injustice right at home, and grow a good society, with equality, liberty and justice for its own citizens. Forget notions of socialism, communism, and just do what is right. not for Jesus, or any other mystical being, but for each other, brothers and sisters, fathers and mothers...

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#24
In reply to #22

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/13/2009 7:12 AM

Sounds good, but not grounded in reality. There are too many cases in history where that has been proven false.

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#25
In reply to #22

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/14/2009 12:26 PM

Violence begets violence.

Perhaps, but not if you fight to win. When was the last time we were attacked after Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Have the Germans attacked anyone since the carpet bombing of WWII. If you go in only armed with threats and promises of bestowing citizenship rights and beyond to the enemy, well sure more and more will sign up because that may be their free ticket to come live in the U.S.

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#27
In reply to #22

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/23/2009 8:52 PM

Please remove your rose colored glasses. Every time you pie in the sky liberals pull this pacifist stuff the rest of us wind up paying the price in blood. The only way to have peace is to be ready to defend it, in other words if you want peace you must be ready for war. I have spent most of my life as professional military and both of my sons are now in the military. No body in the military desires war, but we know what the alternative is. The time when this country and her people are really in danger is when we are perceived as weak, as when Carter and Clinton were presidents. I have traveled extensively both as civilian and military and I will tell you that you are not being told the truth by the media. When Carter and Clinton were in the White house we were a laughing stock in most of the world.

I would like to see alternative fuel vehicles that are really useful and do not simply move the pollution somewhere else. The present crop of hybrid vehicles are closer than any of the electric vehicles.The electric battery operated vehicles are charged from the electric grid that still uses fossil fuel and the batteries are so polluting to make that they can not be made in this country. Big improvement right.

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#28
In reply to #27

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/23/2009 11:42 PM

Dear Guest.

Thank you for your input.

Chris

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#29
In reply to #27

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/24/2009 12:07 AM

If you are so sure of your position, why not register?

The only way to wage war is to have an actual enemy, not a tactic[terrorism]

mindlessly lashing out at petty dictators [saddam] & creating a generation of violent extremists, will certainly help keep the military industrial complex rolling right along.

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#16

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 7:13 PM

A fundamental issue that is generally overlooked in discussions of this sort is the fact that the business model pursued by the American automobile industry is no longer appropriate. I read somewhere that the CEO of General Motors said something to the effect that no automotive company can survive in a market of less than 10,000,000 cars per year. Guess what? You may have to live with that reality for some time to come. The marketing strategy evolved over the years was based on new drivers coming into the market, and existing customers upgrading every three years. There are a lot fewer new drivers coming of age than back in the '60's and '70's, and the average life of cars on the road is now something like 6 years. Older drivers, I suspect, do not feel the need to upgrade every three years, and even if they do, the new economic realities suggest that more people are going to drive their existing vehicles longer. The only reasons a car does not give ten years or more service are either poor maintenance on the part of the owner, or parts become difficult to source, or a careless driver has destroyed it.

Unfortunately, I do not expect our leaders to demand that the "new business plans" required for participation in the industry actually reflect the true picture of future markets, which means the Automotive industry can be expected to continue down the same dead-end road, no matter how much money you throw at them. If Tesla Motors feels inclined to follow the Big Three down that road, then they don't deserve to survive, either.

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#26
In reply to #16

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/23/2009 11:07 AM

The only reasons a car does not give ten years or more service are either poor maintenance on the part of the owner, or parts become difficult to source, or a careless driver has destroyed it.

You forget that the parts for the cars were engineered to fail so that the 3 year replacement would occur because of the cost of the repacement parts..

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#17

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 8:27 PM

In stead of a bail-out, my approach would be to nationalize the automobile industry, give all the management their pink slips and convene a board of directors to control and operate the industry. The board would comprise the top executives from Toyota, Nissan, Mercedes Benz, BMW and other successfull companies. The bail-out money would still be there, but it would be managed by responsible realistic people who know something about the industry. They would bring global experience to the table. I think a temporary freeze on the stock market would be needed to prevent stockholders from dumping their shares which would hamper any effort to make the industry profitable. I know it would never be done, but what are the alternatives?

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#19
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Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 8:33 PM

So, you advocate socialism as the fix?

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#21
In reply to #17

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 9:43 PM

I think the stock market is where companies should go to get money. not to bailouts. If the stock holders stop believing in you.. that might be the time to take a hint. If GM stock is low.. maybe its time for them to pack up. That would make room for someone else to try their hand at making cars. If GM were to fold up.. it does not mean that there is no demand. It just means that there is no demand for what GM is selling.. There is an ever increasing demand for reliable, affordable, and economically friendly transportation. If the the big 3 can't provide that, then it is time to let them die an appropriate death, so we can all get on with having our needs met by someone who can. I have perfect faith that any void left by a dying dinosaur will be filled happily by smaller more viable organizations, whatever form they take... its a new world.. full of hope.

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#30
In reply to #21

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/24/2009 1:41 PM

That is an answer I can really agree with. The free market sometimes is kind of messy, but left alone it will react with the kind of advancements and products we not only desire but need without any bureaucratic involvement.

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#23

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/12/2009 10:03 PM

Too many people in D.C. are too deeply involved and invested in the automotive and oil industries, not only would the demise of the big three U.S. automakers put a lot of Americans out of work, but it just might bankrupt half of the nations leaders which would be just shameful, can you imagine how the world would laugh at us if we let our politicians suffer from the woes of a damaged economy like they were just average people or worse... some schmuck on the street??? Yes Virginia, that IS sarcasm.

The U.S. Government has been broken for more years then I can recall. We may as well do away with the current electoral system and shift to something more like American Idol... "Senator Glumberg, I enjoyed your speach on the economic crisis but your singing was dreadful, come back when you've had some voice lessons..." Our leaders are not qualified to do the tasks demanded of them and the result is that anytime there is a crisis the first idea that doesn't piss off the majority party (e.g by endangering their investments) will be the plan that goes into action with no further thought of the implications of that action.

To make matters worse we are a pampered society that lives in dread of the day we might have to actually do real work, not shifting imaginary numbers from one imaginary location to another. I would estimate that 2/3 or more of Americans have no idea what real hardship is and the thought that they might have to give up their 300 cable channels or ride a bus is terrifying to them.

Long story short I blame the education system in this country and the lack of any sort of mandated civil service. Our students stop receiving new learning after about 5th - 6th grade (10 - 12 years old) because some kid in the back of the room still hasn't learned his multiplication tables and god forbid we might make that person feel bad by seperating them from the rest of the class so they can get the tutoring they need and the rest of the class can actually have a chance to learn something...

Welcome to America, home of the celebrated Lowest Common Denominator... if we can't all be smart then we should all be ignorant in order to level the playing field...

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#31

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

01/27/2009 11:26 AM

The best bailout will be the "Homeless" bailout absolutly. No roof no nothing. Since they been in 'Financial Crisis' long ago before this actual one. So, we'll have to start it from the bottom up to make it for real in order for everybody reach the dream all at once. "No child left behind" Yes Sure! Give me a Break! Easy does it no rush into nothing, are we there yet? Oh Brotherrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bailouts Technology,

MC

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#32

Re: How About a Better Bailout?

08/24/2009 8:07 PM

I rated this Thread highly because some of my favorite people on the Forum to wrangle or collaborate with showed up.

The responsibilities of a Government are actually very limited in my book.

The two main duties of Government are Defense, and Education.

I do have an odd education, for which I take responsibility.

Much of it was self directed.

I had goals and studied Military History, Political Science, and how to get a good picture on film.

I also studied Espionage for it is the failures of Spooks that lead to general war above the surface conducted by armies.

On one hand people say assassinations are unethical, but on the other they say that only applies if the assassination is of an elected official.

Regardless of rights and wrongs and even a completed thesis, impossible right now for me it is only sensible to invest in a company if you can reasonably expect a return from the investment.

Further it is only reasonable to really expect a return from the investment on the Merits of the products and inventions, and management of the company you are investing in, sans, or without government interventions and prop ups of that company.

Skews of this reasonable sensibility do exist in the form of corruptions and propaganda.

I myself do look at issues of Healthcare as part of Defense of the nation.

As far as the possible reduction of the price of a Tesla by 20 grand goes, well then it is then only what? 80 grand?

Killing only the people who really need to be gotten out of the game would likely greatly reduce War expenditures by 2 thirds.

P.S. I am a firm believer as far as the US is concerned in Afganistan and Iraq in bringing back the US Constabulary Service as it was extremely successful in keeping the Peace after WII.

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