So like many Texas coastal residents I need to decide.... Here is the latest three day prediction:

Which brings it in west of my house...
So probabilist risk assessment time. What are the variables?
My house is in Friendswood (for three more weeks until I move permanently to KL) a suburb of Houston about half way between Houston and Galveston.
I am on the west side of the bay.
I am on a bayou
My house is at an elevation of about 7 to 8 meters above sea level.
My house is 30 miles directly inland from the coast.
My house is about 20 miles upstream of the bay.
Storm surge predictions are for 5 meter storm surge max. (10% chance of higher than 5 meters).
I am on the east (or windy/rainy) side of the projected storm track.
I am in the tropical storm wind band, but outside of the projected hurricane wind strength band.
Current predictions are all over the place as far as strength at land fall, I have read anything from a 1 to a 4.
Evacuation for Hurricane Rita was a disaster in itself
Running west is not an option, would have to run toward Louisiana.
It could still veer east or farther west.
I think I'll stay.
What variables have I missed? 