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Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/10/2010 3:21 PM

Greetings All,

I have a little speculation on the recent launch of an unknown missle off the Calif. coast and would like some engineering opinions...

1) I dont think the missle launch was of the US govt doing, they have always addmitted their Vandenburg launches before, and the launch was at sea.

2) A US company would have admitted it and wanted the publicity.

3) A foriegn country would do it to show us they could get in close and we could not stop them...

4) A few years back N Korea launched a bunch of missles, one after the other and they kept blowing up after launch, everbody thought they were incompetent. Who would fire one after another, they would stop, figure out what was wrong, fix it, and then try again, they would only fire one after another if they were trying to break through a barrier.

5) The Govt has been working on flying laser tech for 20 years, they say they havent perfected it but last I heard they were now trying to put it on a Humvee, sounds like they have a working system to me, given the N. Korean missle destruction mentioned above.

6) It is better for a foreign not to admit and keep us guessing. So do ya all think it was N. Korea saying "yes we can" or China saying "stop devaluing the dollar before the G-20 meeting?

And now for the engineering question, given presuptions about their missle capabilities how far inland would it reach and how long would it take to get there, or how long to reach LA?

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#199
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 6:33 PM

you mean Trudeau, not still the PM?

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#206
In reply to #199

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 7:12 PM

Unfortunately, his shadow still lingers.

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#190
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 3:07 PM

The video clearly shows that a missile was fired. That is my opinion, and I`m entitled to it. If you don`t agree, then that is your right. But, to sit there and blantanly tell me I am instigating war mongering is baseless in itself. We are not sitting in the oval office or the UN headquarters. This is a forum to get to the correct answer, or solution. By your definition I am a bigot, by my definition I am a conservative patriot. I am entitled to my beliefs the same as you. I don`t care if you think I`m right or not, that is not the question here. You can shout me down, even have me removed from cr4, that is your choice. Its already apparent to me that liberals and progressives already have infested this forum. It shows big time in your post. That is what you clowns do best, you shout down or berate anyone that has a different opinion.I bet you think the TSA searches are legal also, and you would berate anyone who disagreed with you. You liberals and progressives are a sorry lot, and you know who you are. Its your way or no way. Everyone has to conform to your way of thinking, or they are wrong.Thats why this country is in the shape its in, thanks alot.BUT, hopefully it will change. Have a great day, I know I will.

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#191
In reply to #190

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 4:10 PM

Wow, do you even grasp what you are saying?

But, to sit there and blatantly tell me I am instigating war mongering is baseless in itself.

Warmongers do not have to sit in a position of authority, they just have to be promoting war.

By your definition I am a bigot, by my definition I am a conservative patriot.

No, by Merriam Webster's definition you are a bigot. You even imply it by: I am entitled to my beliefs the same as you. I don`t care if you think I`m right or not, that is not the question here. Quite true, the question here is do the virtually still pictures of a contrail from a distant helicopter prove that a missile was launched off of the California coast. But to say that you are "entitled to your beliefs" implies that you will continue with your belief in the face of any evidence or rational thought presented. Ipso facto you are a bigot.

You then continue to demonstrate your level of rational thought here by using an ad hominem attack to defend your position. Here I can certainly empathize, for I stooped to this tactic when I was clearly wrong in another discussion. But that's another story.

I know that it is difficult to recognize an error. I hope that I'm not committing one right now.

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#192
In reply to #190

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 4:13 PM

Typical

keep repeating the same nonsense & accuse anyone who disagrees of shouting you down

you continue to prove yourself incapable of rational thought

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#196
In reply to #190

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 5:21 PM

Hi RC

Not that I have to defend my actions of supporting a senior person but in this case I will. No, not you, but in general. I think that anyone can come to a point of being educated about this world we live in with out having to resort to low shots.

I have noticed many times that you Americans a split very badly. The way you antagonize each other is, well, not healthy and is a source of disrespect and hatred. All happening in the one country.

It looks like the schizophrenia is like a worm in the apple and what a beautiful fruit it is. We will all have to wait for the next season and hope that the worms can be eradicated.

You know we Aussies hate each others guts and it shows every where.

"What your from Queensland?"

"What your from bloody Victoria?"

The difference is that, when holding a cold one and meeting socially, we fall in love with each other just because we can and because we wish to walk together. We are a weird mob (You have to read the book of the same title).

I once entered an RSL (Returned Soldiers League) club. Long haired, pacifist at heart. Three hours later we were crying on each others shoulders although there was a generation of difference. The war (Vietnam) had changed our lives but not our Mateship. We could be of different background, opinion or rank but in the end we are together in this.

That worm I mentioned must have undermined something in the US. I am not sure what it is but it shows. Divide and conquer is one of the oldest tactics in any conflict. Unite or you will be doomed guys. Just do it and find that all of you are really in need of .....?.....? Friendship!

I'm not sure if I would walk in to a Texas bar and show the same attitude and come out unscathed. I would give it a go though, Ky.

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#202
In reply to #196

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 6:57 PM

While I agree in part with your assesment of my country, what a lot of outsiders fail to notice is the divide to save our country. We have the progressive liberals that think their way of life is the only way for everyone. They believe that if I made a million dollars last year, I should share it with those less fortunate. That is why we have various charities that we contribute too. That is a freedom of choice each individual makes. For the goverment to step in and tax you to death because they feel others should profit from your hard labor, is just wrong. I worked for everything I have, no one gave me anything except a hard way to go. I`m a conservative. notice I did not say any political party. I am a conservative first. I know there are many good Republican and Democrat conservatives. We believe in smaller goverment, and less intrusion from the govt. in our daily lives. We wish to be left alone to enjoy what we have labored for, without everybody showing up with their hand out. While many are content to sit back and watch TV, or play the Xbox they bought with govt. dollars, which are mine to begin with, a lot of us toil and pay our taxes. I have a lot of friends from both parties, but the one thing we have in common is conservatism. Our Constitution has been shelved, and we want it to be enforced again. It worked fine for over 200 years, thats good enough for me. I am sure KY, that you are a very fine person, as are many on this forum. I have greatly enjoyed our talks with you and the others on here. Its good to exercise the brain cells even if others disagree. But, I am steadfast in my belief that it was a missile, and I notice that anyone else that thought it was a missile did not get the same scrutiny that I got.Maybe they are not as asgressive as I am. But to sum it all up it has been fun. Have a good day gentlemen, I know I will.

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#209
In reply to #202

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 8:12 PM

Income taxes were first collected to pay for war. Secondly to support the disabled soldiers from that war.. then for the elderly who had worked their whole lives, and had not a pot to piss in at the end of it. How about roads, water purification, and other infrastructure? I think you conservatives take too much for granted. Part of this very internet conversation is paid for by public dollars, plus the energy to run it.

Are you aware that there is still a trillion dollars a year being spent by the military? that those 'handouts' you speak of are a drop in the bucket by comparison. have a nice public retirement.

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#207
In reply to #196

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 7:24 PM

Well said.

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#213
In reply to #196

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 9:35 PM

Texas is actually a top place for an Aussie to "give it a go", assuming the cirrhosis is not too bad when you go in.

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#219
In reply to #213

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 11:25 PM

Thanks Mate. I don't drink and my liver is good as. I would like to see the bartenders face when I order a soda and a slice of lemon.

Coming down from the stage, after a guitar hero performance will even things out, I suppose?

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#201
In reply to #190

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 6:49 PM

Sorry you are having such a difficult time understanding the issues here. This is from the CR4 FAQs:

  • Please stay on topic. Posts and comments should be of a technical nature and engage some aspect of engineering, science or technology. If you are going to delve into other topical areas (business, entertainment, sports, etc.), please do your best to tie them back to one of the main focal points of this site. Posts focusing on politics or religion will likely be removed. There are plenty of places on the Web to talk politics or religion This isn't one of them.

Your posts in this thread have not been "of a technical nature" and do not "engage some aspect of engineering, science or technology". Comments about liberals, progressives, Chinese, Muslims, conservative patriots etc are not OK here.

Your only on-topic assertion has been that you "believe" that the airplane contrail was actually from a missile. However that comment alone is of little utility, because you give no reasons or rationale for why you would believe such thing. Engineers want to see plausible evidence, but you provide none.

Comments that state that the members of any political or religious group (liberals, progressives, conservatives, libertarians, Muslims, Christians, Hindus, etc) are "a sorry lot" are not allowed on this forum. The FAQs say: There are plenty of places on the Web to talk politics or religion This isn't one of them.

If you have evidence to present that (for example) shows that the video was slowed down dramatically to make a missile look like an airplane, then present that... but simply repeating the same belief over and over, without supplying any rationale, just contributes to the noise.

This is not "shouting down". It is simply alerting you to the nature of this forum. I hope to see some positive contributions from you in the future.

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#203
In reply to #201

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 7:06 PM

Thank you, point well taken, I was answering KY responce. But you already knew that.

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#204
In reply to #190

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 7:07 PM

You are quite correct that you are entitled to your opinion, as it is part of your right too free speech.

That said, every one else on this forum can exercise the same right. As I have stated before, they may be good bad or ugly.

This forum is just a place for people to share knowledge and ideas, or as in this thread, beliefs, etc.

When you stated: "The video clearly shows that a missile was fired" that was your opinion, based upon your interpretation of the evidence at hand and your beliefs. I actually have no opinion either way as I was not there and the video was not conclusive. If it was, there would be a solid answer. For all I know, it could have been "ET" on a bicycle having gas.

This forum is not the "Spanish Inquisition" or a "McCarthy era trial", so please lighten up.

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#205
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 7:11 PM

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

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#211
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 9:01 PM

Neither did the Spanish.

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#210
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 8:14 PM

Now that was funny!! You are right as you usually are, so I will try to lighten up. Sometimes I get carried away when I strongly believe in something. I also have figured out its not really what you say, but how you say it. I must remember to not be like a bull in a China shop. Again, thank you.

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#212
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 9:18 PM

Humor is one of the greatest things. Would Hitler have started WW2, if he actually appreciated Chaplin, and was to busy laughing his ass off, to get around to invading Poland?

I can understand the passion in a thought. Thinking is good, passion is good, getting your message across to some one successfully is even better.

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#215
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/22/2010 9:53 PM

Well Hitler only got a shot at it because the 'reparations' under the Treaty of Versailles were driven by 'fear and loathing of the Hun' - so sought to crush the German Race into oblivion. Funny things, 'fear' and 'loathing' - remarkably consistent results.

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#220
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/23/2010 9:09 AM

You are right about the treaty of Versailles, as that just caused a pause of WW1. A lot of nations were against it. The US never signed it. They and others knew it was just plain to punitive.

The same would have happened after WW2; If it was not for the Marshall Plan and the fact that post war, West Germany and France decided that talking, trade and cooperation was more productive than round 3. The seeds of the EU were born there.

Considering the blood bath that Europe has been over the centuries the EU is their best hope.

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#221
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/23/2010 3:33 PM

Yes - "fear and loathing", used by some leaders to sustain their reign, takes a long time for many to recognise - it is just that for that. A large part in John Howard's demise was that recognition in broader Australia.

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#166
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/20/2010 5:39 PM

Citizen, Ixnay on the Issile-may. Was crop-duster. Signed, Admiral Will Hung Peoples Liberation Army Navy

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#56
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 1:12 PM

The downside to #1 of course is that you have showed your hand and given your enemies (us) a chance to find a counter to your technology.

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#60
In reply to #56

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 1:27 PM

Rorschach,

remember we (the US) did the same thing to show Russia our capabilities. Thats why its a warning shot, no body wants to go to war so we make a show of force by doing warship games in the south China sea.

Spacecannon

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#61
In reply to #60

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 2:07 PM

True up to a point, but you don't show off your "secret weapon" during those warning shots. you hold those in reserve for when you really need them because once you show them off, the element of surprise is lost..

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#47

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 11:31 AM

Obviously the age old Duck question here: IF it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck and tastes like duck, then it's a duck!

I've seen enough rocket and missile launches in my lifetime (at Whitesands, and then later during the Persian Gulf War of '91....Scuds and the Army's MLRS) to know a actual missile from a supposedly aircraft contrail. My vote is that it's a missile with a solid fuel propulsion engine.

Problem is "Who owns it?" Given the US Military's penchant to wrap a blanket so tightly around this puppy due to "National Security" issues most undoubtedly the true story will not surface for at least 50 to 60 years downrange.

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#48

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 11:32 AM

Let's add a bit of fuel to the conspiracy fire...

If we assume that the US government agencies have been honest in their statements (and yes I understand that's a BIG "if")... and state a few additional facts...

1. All branches of the US military have denied any involvement in this.

2. The CIA is not part of the DOD.

3. The CIA is already known to have military type capabilities (i.e. Drones and the MISSLES launched from them)

Perhaps this clandestine group is expanding a bit to include larger weapons....

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#49
In reply to #48

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 11:38 AM

Let us also not forget DARPA as well as Boeing and Lockheed's "skunk works" operations who also have such capabilities. The X-37B is a DARPA project, not an Air Force project per se. It all depends on how you frame the question and couch the answer, assuming that the answer you get is honest to begin with.

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#50

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 12:06 PM

This is even more loopy than the Gulf oil spill threads!

If anyone had just one fact to work with it would really get wild I suppose!

Makes me think of the blind men describing an elephant.

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#53

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 1:07 PM

Something I have noticed floating around silently,

The damage caused by commercial passenger aircraft on 911 has gone far beyond what could ever be imagined, It is in the minds and hearts, the very soul of everyone. The damage is still expanding. The damage cannot be forgotten.

Remember the Veterans and the victims.

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#58

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 1:19 PM

Good morning All,

As I see the reports and headlines this morning I am appalled at the ability of the Govt to pull strings on anyone under their payrol. Talk to experts out side of the US and Ametuer Rocketeers, this is a rocket trail. So many dont want to believe it they have their heads in the sand and scream "IT WAS A JET".

I honestly have to say anyone who says this is a jet contrail is either on a govt payrole or doesnt understand contrails. Multiengine jets dont form a contrail like that immediatly out of the back, there is always some residual separation close to the point of origin, even after mixing a person can make out striations. No question about it, it was a solid fuel rocket/missle.

I can see why the govt - people would not want this to become a controversy, if the public saw it for a missle from a foreign country there would be outrage and possibly war. (on the other hand our govt would probably say "oh we forgive you, no problem" .

The obvious answer as to who, N.Korea or China, probaly China cause N.Korea sank that S.Korean ship and is still feeling the heat from that. It was an empty warhead so it was a warning shot about our financial policies. If you understand what is happening regarding our national monitary policy then you would understand this is valid. I dont think Iran has the sub to do it. A surface ship would be an obvious tell, too much evidence. But a surface launch from a sub would work.

Watching the media this morning I realize this will be swept under the rug. Its like having a dangerous neighbor that everyone denys is theatening.

They could nuke a US city and we would call it a local accident to avoid public outrage and a war.

Thx and good luck All

Spacecannon

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#65

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/11/2010 8:39 PM

You propose some very intriguing ideas. Most of which can be open for debate. As for North Korea; As soon as you mention it I have a habit of losing it. No one has any real idea of what goes on in that hell hole. The Chinese are the most likely to know what is going on, and they are not about to fess up. They, like the South Korean's, are terrified that if that dumpster's ruling mandarins comes apart, the better part of the country will pack up and leave in mass to either north or south. Those that have not already died of starvation or being a victim of the state. The so called North Koren government has never been known to do the rational. It is a despotic dictatorship run by a twit, who could care less about the people "he is to serve". Now that is a joke. The one after another missile launches that failed, could actually have been legitimate failures. If I was a engineer, scientist, technician, or even the janitor. I would have a hard time, going for Gipper, with the proverbial gun to my head. If the wing-nut of the day says launch. You do or die. The facts that the system is not ready yet means nothing to him. Yes this is again another one of my rants. Just spend a moment of time with a vet, especially today, and you will learn things that should never be known.

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#75

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 1:07 AM

It's flight 808. It looks exactly like the contrail from 808 published previously (end of last year?), as well as the one published the day after the video (from the beach cam), which is at just the same angle. The video makes it appear that the contrail is growing more quickly than it is because the camera is being zoomed, but once the zoom is finished, the "missile" suddenly seems dead in the air, just as a jet often seems when approaching. The speed is far to low to be that of a missile.

If the traffic helicopter guys really believed it was a missile launch why didn't they continue to shoot video? If they really believed it was missile launch, wouldn't they shoot 'til the missile began to go out of sight? The alternative explanation seems so incredibly convoluted.

At least the various fantasies being proposed and the incredible stories to go with them are entertaining. Note that the news reports called it a missile launch even before they had any idea whether it was a launch or not, and without any confirmation of any sort that it was in fact a launch. Makes great TV... What drugs was Elsworth on? He says "Maybe it was ICBM from a sub to demonstrate to Asia that we can do that??!! Of course we can do that. If we wanted to make such a demonstration, then why not in their backyard instead of ours?

TV news exists only to sell ad time.

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#77
In reply to #75

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 1:12 AM

Moronicbumbler,

The speed seems slow cause it is going directly away from the camera, THAT IS WHY YOU CAN SEE THE FLAME, or is the front of the plane on fire? They reported it as a missle cause it was so obvious. it walks like a duck...

Go ask the reporter he stoped taping, thats not a valid argument for it not being a missle. why are you grasping at straws to explain away the obvious?

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#79
In reply to #77

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 1:29 AM

Do you read what you are writing, before you post it?

Logic & reason have been replaced by conjecture & paranoia

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#87
In reply to #77

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 11:43 AM

Perhaps we are talking about a different video. The video I watched, shot from a traffic report helicopter, shows the brief metallic flash (like that from a signal mirror) that is very often seen near sundown at the front of contrails, due to simple reflection off the plane. But when the camera zooms in, there is no bright spot, because these flashes from the undersides of planes are fleeting (they can only happen when the sun, plane and observer are in the right locations). There is nothing remotely or vaguely close to the flame from a missile or rocket. The plane is going toward the camera, with the contrail wider in the distance, from the standard and common dissipation and dispersion.

Here's a pic from the video I watched. Did you watch a different video?

It shows nothing remotely close to a missile's exhaust signature. And looks exactly like a contrail that is illuminated from below the horizon (the sun's apparent location) against a sunset sky. For people who are unaware that the earth is round (such as those reporters that said that the "missile lit up the sky") this could appear to be something moving upward, rather than a plane at cruising at altitude (where the plane actually is). They'd be wrong, but then so would the 80% of Americans who believe that the earth was created 4000-5000 years ago. Were you thinking that the brilliant yellow cloud (the brightest thing in the shot above, stretching horizontally in the frame) was the flame you referred to?

Here's a contrail from a plane (flight 808) from a similar location taken on New Year's eve. It looks even more "rocket like" (I'd think) to someone who knows nothing about things such as contrails, sunsets, science, etc.

Here's another view of the same flight, taken from a different angle.

I suppose to some people who have never given any thought to perspective, both these shots airplanes appear to be going upward rather than cruising at altitude, which is what they are really doing. The geometry is adequately explained in numerous places, but the contrailscience site does a good job, so I'll recommend that, if you are actual serious re your thories.

To agree with your funny conspiracy theory, I'd have to believe numerous things that are counter to my observations and counter to logic. I'd have to believe that "the government" and thousands of people in the government are lying with their official version, that "the media" is in cahoots with the government, and on and on. The North Korea idea is ludicrous. Clearly it was China, demonstrating that they can blow us up is we keep complaining about toxic toothpaste.

Here is a screen shot from a YouTube of one of the numerous broadcasts, (many of which add layer upon layer of assumptions and idiocy -- such as the "lighting up the sky" bit, which is obviously flat wrong -- the thing lighting up the sky is that bright thing that these people must think orbits our planet).

I have circled the area of the THE FLAME that you claim to be able to see. I have also circled the (obviously) military aircraft that you and your conspiracy theorist friends seem to have missed. Clearly, this aircraft was dispatched to shoot the missile out of the air, and the proof is right there in the video. The only reason no one saw the subsequent flash was because all observers were memory flashed MIB style -- it's the only explanation that fits!

Here is what appeared to be a contrail to me, (I think these things are beautiful) but clearly, from your perspective, this is a missile trail, (left from missile passage three minutes before) and the red sky is from the huge conflagration of the island (just over the horizon) hit by the nuke, in one of Iran's tests in the Med.

Turns out, in this case, you are right. How much more obvious can it get?? -- the sky is red, and that can only come from a conflagration. It was also intended by Iran to be symbolic of their relationship with Russia, the "red" country. This test has been well-documented (if you are some naysayer, I'll leave you to find the documentation), but even if it were not, it should be obvious that this is a test by Iran. You can go ask the person who took this shot, if you don't believe the obvious. If anyone tries to claim that this is just a sunset, they are grasping at straws to explain away the obvious.

More beautiful contrails can be found here. Many look even more like rockets or missiles* than the jet contrail over LA does.

Perhaps it is time to say you are joking... aren't we just wasting CR4 bandwidth? Keep this going, and people will start to think you are serious!

*or the previously secret Death Laser Vapor trails now in testing by Korea -- in fact three of these pics, on the first page of images, are from the Korean testing of the DLV. You will be able to pic them out immediately.

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#103
In reply to #87

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 6:51 PM

You make a very convincing argument! ga for that.

but you are trying too hard... and from this we can conclude... you are one of 'them'.

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#107
In reply to #103

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 9:18 PM

Theory?

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#108
In reply to #107

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 9:24 PM

conspiracy 'vision'?

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#80

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 1:52 AM

At least the OP is right about one thing, his signature line:

"The person who wrote the above is not resposible [sic] for spelling, grammar or puncuation [sic], ......"

"...an unknown missle [sic]" and quite a few other such errors.

I don't think he's "resposible" for the quality of his musings, either.

***

I didn't see any flames in the video, only about 3 or 4 very brief glints, as off a metallic object. If this were an accelerating missile, moving away, there should have been a much brighter and more consistent flame.

This kind of cockamamie conclusion-jumping is the sort of thing that causes rumors, urban legends, panics, lynch mobs, and the like. Very irresponsible.

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#81

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:27 AM

I like Spacecannon's idea... let's explore Occam's razor (for those who don't know it, this is the philosophy that, all else being equal the solution that makes the fewest assumptions is most likely correct).

So let's make a list of possibilities and the required assumptions and see where Occam leads us!!!

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#88
In reply to #81

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 12:37 PM

Occam's razor (for those who don't know it, this is the philosophy that, all else being equal the solution that makes the fewest assumptions is most likely correct)

This might be better stated as the solution that makes the fewest new assumptions, Another way of putting it: the simplest explanation is the best. In comparing the two photos below (and in interpreting them to represent some facet of reality) we make hundreds of assumptions, so I am not interested in listing those.

Why not just keep it simple. If we have a contrail photo taken from the same location and at the same time of day and with similar meteorological conditions... and find that it looks just like the image from the video, then without making additional and highly implausible assumptions, we can say that it is very likely a contrail. If it looks just like a contrail, if probably is a contrail.

We should refrain from accepting or repeating descriptions like "lights up the sky" because there is nothing in the video (or the even brighter contrail photo below) that indicates that the contrail is lighting up the sky -- that honor goes to the sun in both cases. We should also refrain from accepting an old defense secretary's statement that it is us proving something to the Chinese, or the opposite statement, also offered, that it is the Chinese proving something to us, because there is no evidence of that in the video or the photo -- such an assumption is just wild imagination.

Known contrail from flight 808, which flies over LA:

This looks even more like a rocket (to people who do not watch sunsets and contrails) than the recent video, mainly because the image quality is better.

Pic from recent video:

They look very nearly identical, because they are very nearly identical: same time of day, similar clouds and other meteorological conditions. Same contrail shape: wide and darkish in the distance, bright in the middle from illumination from below (in the sense that the sun is "below" the horizon -- same reason the middle clouds are bright) darker, grayish near the east-flying aircraft in both cases.

See 0:36 in this video.

No new and wildly imaginative assumptions needed... just observation, and the ability to compare one image with another.

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#89
In reply to #88

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 12:54 PM

Good answer and start for Occam!

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#90
In reply to #88

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 2:02 PM

Why would anyone put this much effort into trying to proove something wrong unless they were a shill for the govt.

Those pictures you presented do not look convincing, to location and photo shop, you have to present the source not just flash some pic you found that supports your theory. for example the LA shot, given the sun sets in the west out here, where was that shot taken from?

And since the sun sets in the west and the missle was flying NW it would be pritty tough to get the suns reflection off it since the sun would be in back of it.

The video shot and referenced above from CBS shows flame at the tip if you cant see it well get new glasses.

This is a tail end shot other wise you would see the plane, given the size of the plume in relation to the plane at the point of origin, they are about the same size to each other as it comes out of the plane, and you can see no plane there.

Moronicbumble i trully suspect anyone putting this much effort into it unless they are getting paid to do so.

Spacecannon

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#101
In reply to #90

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 6:13 PM

Why would anyone put this much effort into trying to proove something wrong unless they were a shill for the govt.

Hard to know what you mean here. I think you have the largest number of posts here.

given the sun sets in the west out here

Incredible coincidence!! Here too!

where was that shot taken from?

The photos are of flight 808, flying eastward. The shots were taken in the LA area. looking west, toward Honolulu, where the flight originates.

And since the sun sets in the west and the missle was flying NW...

I'm not arguing that the jet was a missile... that's your gig. Try to keep up. I am arguing that the plane was a plane. The plane is flying east on its way to Phoenix. The sun is illuminating the underside of the clouds where they are brightest in all the shots. I gather you do not fly, but if you did, you would see that "grey" clouds are bright white from above. In the same way, contrails during sunsets are bright where they are illuminated from below, and grey when illuminated from behind. One of your photos shows a bright contrail blocked by a "grey" cloud. You'd have a hard time explaining the image without resorting to rational thought.

You have not read the contrail science site, I gather. Trust me, the stuff described there is very ordinary, and the kind of stuff you see all the time if you fly, if you are a sunset admirer, or a sunset photographer, etc.

The video shot and referenced above from CBS shows flame at the tip if you cant see it well get new glasses.

Oddly enough, I just had my eyes tested today. Corrected to better than 20-20. Post the part of the picture that shows the flame. All I saw was the brief flash from a reflection - something I have seen perhaps in the low hundreds of times from on the ground and in the air.

This is a tail end shot other wise you would see the plane, given the size of the plume in relation to the plane at the point of origin, they are about the same size to each other as it comes out of the plane, and you can see no plane there.

Google "sunset contrails". Sometimes you see the plane, many times you do not.

So you are thinking that the contrail expert, who's site has been up for years, is a liar, and "the government" found him (perhaps a couple years ago) to prepare him to come up with the ridiculous assertion that a contrail is a contrial... so that at some point in the future (where we have arrived now) "the government" could hide the fact that "they" know that this is really a missile from China. Then they found me and paid me off to further support the notion that a contrail is a contrail. I wonder why are the Chinese not paying me to say that the contrail is a missile?

Novel.

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#82

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:32 AM

About 2 years ago a jerk accidentally fired a anti-hail rocket near to the EZE airport here in Buenos Aires... nearly hitting an incoming flight from Lufthansa. As (fortunately) nothing happened this episode was swept under the carpet by our authorities, being recently unveiled by a free-lance journalist. Have you considered the possibility of a guy at the Calif coast fooling around with a RED Button?

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#83

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:47 AM

Here's a retired LAX air traffic controllers opinion copied from a reply in a CBS news column.

William "Bill" Gray

Our government has been notiously guilty in the past of orchestratint dis-information to the public to avoiid possibly alarming the public. Fact is, the government still has no idea who fired what was certainly a missile type devise of the western shoreline.

I am a retired air traffic cointroller with nearly 12 years at LAX Tower in my resume, and have seen many contrails from aircraft arriving from Hawaii and points from the west overseas. When they arriive at of near sunset, there is often an optical illusion that causes the aircraft to appear to be originating at sea lever and climbing as it travels east toward our coastline. However, tthis object originated on shore and climbed away to the west. NOTE: The ehaust flames clearly visible at the rear of the object as it departs away from rather towards the camera. An inbound aiccraft would not show these obvious flames. If one could see flames coming from an arriving aircraft inbound from the rest, with todays aircraft engine technology, the pilot would have certainly declared an emergency.

Moreover, contrails from overseas arriving aircraft from the west have never been so dense or thick.

Mis-Information is what its called.

William "Bill" Gray

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#84
In reply to #83

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 11:05 AM

CBS News needs to get a better editor; too many misspellings in that column.

--Editor Crankshaft

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#85
In reply to #83

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 11:12 AM

do you have a link to the original source?

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#86
In reply to #85

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 11:41 AM

Yes. I should have included that. (again note this is a REPLY to the CBS article, not CBS or the editors)

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2010/11/10/pentagon-mystery-missile-contrail-was-probably-airplane/

I'm all for the simplest explanation, which tends to be an airplane. The only issues I have with this is what Mr. Bill above touches on... If this were a commercial flight that has been flown daily for numerous years (with minimal research I can find these flights going back to at least 2002) SURELY contrails would have formed one of those days in the past 8+ years and one of the people in the second largest city in the US would have seen it before.

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#91

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 2:13 PM

This guy must have spent too long in the desert. He is thinking just like Mullah Momtazy, who "smelled me out" as a CIA agent.

Somebody please send him a camel for companionship....

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#92
In reply to #91

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 2:49 PM

You gave up your job at Mossad. I always thought you were multi-talented.

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#93
In reply to #91

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 3:44 PM

Tornado,

These are all missile launch pix from Googles photo archieve

Resorting to personal insults does not help your position, it only shows a grade school mentality.

Spacecannon

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#94
In reply to #93

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 4:04 PM

Sigh. At the risk of falling prey to a quotation attributed to both Mark Twain and Woody Allen, allow me to answer this.

These are all pictures that are word associated by the Google search engine with the word "missile". Some of these are pictures of missiles and some of these are pictures that look like but are not missiles. Both will be associated with the word missile.

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#98
In reply to #93

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 5:38 PM

These photos clearly show the differences between sunset contrail photos (the two reddish ones) and actual launch photos (the three which show the launch site). The extra photo (showing a plume of some sort running downhill) adds nothing -- it could be contrail, reentry plume, part of a launch taken from an odd angle, etc.

The contrails disperse (and get very wiggly) with time. The wide end that extends over the horizon and out of sight was generated tens of minutes ago, so they expand, drift, and show the effects of wind shear. This site will help you calculate the possible distance to the horizon -- although Catalina Island obscures the horizon in one case, and haze obscures it in the other. The furthest part of the contrail you can see is probably 75 miles away, (out over the pacific in both cases) perhaps a little more. In both contrail photos, the weather conditions are good for contrails, and the (apparently) cirrus clouds have formed because of that.

The launches show less than a minute of plume, and in the last photo the time is even shorter: the rocket is visible enough that you could scale the altitude to less than a mile, I'd guess. Perhaps you can look these over and do the math: my job as a shill for the government does not allow me the time to do so. I gather that you might have more available time, and are having a good chuckle.

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#95

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 4:16 PM

1, 3, 4, and 6 are clearly missile, as we can see launch point; 2 and 5 are uncertain.

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#96
In reply to #95

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 5:10 PM

I think there are differences in the way in which these display in different browsers. There are two obvious sunset contrail sunset photos, which on my screen are images 2 and 4, in reading order. Number 5 is the one running "downhill and to the left," and which doesn't support Spacecannon's spoof, and doesn't contribute anything meaningful: the camera angle is strange if it is a launch, and if it is a missile coming down or a reentry, then it has no bearing on the current thread. The other three are actual launches, and are distinctly and obviously different than the sunset jet contrail photos.

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#99
In reply to #96

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 5:43 PM

Number 4 was in sunset, but the low end of the contrail was below the horizon, in front of the distant hills, and thus looks like a missile.

I agree that the TV show video looks more like several of the other identified airplane contrails than the missile contrails in Spacecadet's selection.

I see you use Latin in your tagline. Does that mean that you too are ex-military or active? He also seems to think you must be paid to contribute here. Ho ho.

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#100
In reply to #99

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 6:07 PM

I think the Latin is more of a sign of sense of humor!

Qua operor ego adicio pro officium?

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#118
In reply to #99

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 12:01 PM

I see you use Latin in your tagline. Does that mean that you too are ex-military or active? He also seems to think you must be paid to contribute here. Ho ho

Drat!! I've been found out. I hadn't realized that other cognoscenti would be here to expose me. I am paid as a Latin translator for the military. (As we both know, many documents are made secret by distribution in Latin. Fortunately for us Latin translators, now, more than 75% of all military secret documents [worldwide] are in Latin, the reasoning being that Latin is now only very rarely taught in high school, and is the official language of not even one single country!... so what could be more secure?) My guess is that Spacecannon may be working for the "other" side, because he also seems to code portions of his posts in something other than English. I believe he uses the wording "missle," for example, so that this thread cannot be found in a search about missiles.

I have taken the precaution of posting this as "off topic" to be certain that others will not find out about my connection with the gummint.

elbmuB cinoroM ,sdrageR

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#97
In reply to #95

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 5:18 PM

(obviously belongs to a post much earlier - but I've been laughing too much ...)

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#102

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 6:22 PM

Check this out - Discuss amongst yourselves - there will be questions later, followed by a pop quiz, with extra points given for the most creative answers.

http://www.youtube.com/?v=ncswE3UCp2E

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#104
In reply to #102

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 7:08 PM

clearly thats a lens issue. it is moving at exactly the same speed that camera is tracking...

new yorkers are just paranoid about flying things.

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#106

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 8:55 PM

Greetings Citizens of Earth, Please to be not worried by recent speculation regarding "missile launch" off your continental discontinuation. Photos obviously not spacecraft, most likely airplane or jet-ski or weather balloon , not vanguard of intergalactic invasion fleet. Please to go and sleep now , rest now , lack of agitation assures our preferred food resources are not tough and stringy when harvested. GLXZX, Vice-Admiral Alpha Centauri Squadron

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#109

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 9:39 PM

What is this?

No, don't scroll down yet. Many of the postings have criteria for knowing what caused "stuff" in the sky.

Just wasting a little space...

Trying to enforce the "don't scroll down" request for a moment ...

I am not an expert,

but I know enough to know that

things are not always as they seem.

The image above is the smoke trail of the Space Shuttle Discovery made during the last night launch early in the morning of Monday April 5, 2010. I don't have any good "flame" pictures of this launch. Since it was the last night launch of a shuttle I tried to get it with my video camera. No matter how hard I tried I could not get it to auto focus on the bright spot in the sky and in the dark I couldn't turn off the automatic controls. Therefore, I started taking still shots after the flames were gone. Here are a few to help put the pieces together.

Is there a point to all this? Yes, two ideas get stuck in my mind as I look at the pictures.

1) For a trail to hold a straight line for a long period of time these pictures suggest that the trail might be at a constant altitude. Changing altitude brings with it changes in wind speed and direction.

2) Even though the lower part of the California trail is darker due to the haze near the horizon you might guess that the lower part of the California trail is brighter than the upper parts. The top is darker, the middle is brightest and the haze makes the bottom uncertain but bright is a possibility.

The last of my pictures above appears to be a tangled mess. But, the trail in my picture is color coded based upon altitude. Gray is closest to the ground and the trail transitions through red, blue and white as it gets higher and into direct sunlight.

Notice that most of the colors appear in more than one place. Some, such as gray, show up near far left and far right. The trail has moved around in a very confusing mess.

These pictures suggest that a trail that remains rather straight over time and gets darker at the "new end" is probably at a constant altitude and moving away from the sun. Due to the curvature of the earth it might be traveling at a constant altitude but getting lower with respect to bright sun light.

After seeing the picture below from www.contrailscience.com (thanks to Brian220x posting# 34) I can start to buy the Airbus A380 theories. It would still be very special conditions for the trail to remain big and bold over time, but if the odds are one in a hundred or less then that would seem to be just about right.

I like the mystery missile idea because it is much more fun that an airplane in routine flight. But, my best guess is that the Airbus 380 idea is correct.

The time span from my very first picture to my very last picture is 18 minutes. The rising sun makes it look like a longer period of time but some of that was due to me fiddling around with longer exposures on my camera.

Just in case you are wondering if my location is somehow unusual I have included a more normal picture of what I see just after liftoff. I didn't bother to take pictures a minute or two later because I have seen the "tangled trails" many times before.

Bruce

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#110
In reply to #109

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:22 PM

good points bruce!

is there any input from civilian or military authorities that anyone can find?

chris

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#119
In reply to #110

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 12:20 PM

is there any input from civilian or military authorities that anyone can find?

Of course there is the Pentagon version, but I have been paid to write this, so take it with a grain of salt.

One of my team members (we are paid from the same fund) is now trying to convince people that the flight in question was the UPS flight, not flight 808. You will see that his approach to the puzzle has all the earmarks of a cover-up, however: logic, reason, thoroughness, etc.

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#120
In reply to #119

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 1:10 PM

Dear MB Prime,

What I am looking for is 'evidence', similar to this. Date and time stamped official data logs from the ATC system. Is that so much to ask?

btw, I enjoy your new persona

Let me also say that Spacecannon is a friend of mine, and I don't think he is crazy. I know him to be industrious, intelligent, and helpful. His beliefs may not appear 'normal', but there is a huge abundance of data to support his distrust of various agencies. In the article you quote, there is also relatively knowledgeable people (the guy from Jane's) who think it was a missile trail...

I don't personally care what it was. "Show me the evidence!"

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#121
In reply to #120

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 2:17 PM

Chris,

I'm certain that MB can and likely will speak for himself on this but I'd like to speak about your request for 'evidence' and the paradox of trying to present certified evidence to anyone that believes that there is a conspiracy cover up. Any certified evidence that refutes the conspiracy perspective will be dismissed as part of the cover up. This will obviously be what will happen because rational argument to explain why the images presented need not be the conspiracy theorists preference have already been dismissed as part of the cover up.

Now as far as you bringing into this discussion a You Tube archive video of the Air Traffic Control screen of the RAX888 accident and asking for a similar image, well frankly I'm ashamed of you. Two people lost their lives in this accident outside of Chicago. Have you no respect? I don't know what the root cause of this accident was and I may not ever know. But I have faith that the NTSB will determine as much as can be found why that tragedy occurred.

But as far as the CBS helicopter images, there has already been a formal report from the government agency responsible for missile safety of the United States. The Pentagon report states that this was an optical illusion of an airplane contrail and has already been dismissed here as a government cover up.

A part of me had hoped that that the paranoid delusions stated in this discussion were mental lapses for a medical reason. I now see that they just came from fools.

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#123
In reply to #121

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 3:52 PM

Hi Redfred,

As to the screenshot, I had no idea. I simply picked a random youtube video to show that these things are recorded. I apologize for any other aspects, as that was certainly unintentional.

As for the validity and disputability of any evidence brought forward, I think that the closer the authorities get to transparency, the better it is for the public. I'm all about continuous improvement, and I don't care one whit whether the authorities are afraid of viral conspiracies. The truth shall set you free. Tell the truth to the people in 100% of the requests, and there wouldn't be a problem.

There are conspiracies about government because government must necessarily think in war terms and scenarios. The public becomes divorced from government in these scenarios because of the necessity for secrecy in conduct war. This is fundamental 'art of war' stuff. The public doesn't like secrecy; they like transparency. People may not always like the truth, as Obama has found out, but it is highly preferable to the other choice.

I am personally willing to accept the aircraft explanation, but as with religion, a little proof goes a long way. If one isn't a little paranoid about certain things, one simply haven't been keeping one's self up to date. It may not be logical, but that doesn't make it go away. (paranoid = heightened caution and awareness)

Do you think Churchill was paranoid about the Nazis, right up until Chamberlain was told "Leave". He certainly suffered for his awareness, and it was his preparations that saved the free world, imho (along with FDR). There are those who are willing to make themselves aware of the activities and motivations of those who do not have the public's best interest at heart. I am less afraid of the man with an opinion than I am of the man with an agenda, and the means to enact it. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

The simple facts are that this contrail in the sky was questionable. An intelligent person will inquire as to the source, and follow it to its conclusion, in order to rule out any possibility of threat. That is all I see the OP doing. (other than getting entangled in schoolyard activities here.)

I've been a quality auditor. It is not enough to say to an auditor 'we gots quality here'. You have to provide evidence, and I see no convincing evidence yet. The only evidence so far is the video itself, which is obviously controversial. Why can't they show an actual and planned flight path for the aircraft in question? I don't personally care what the final answer is, so long as there is solid evidence for the weird contrails, that answers all questions. Really, is that too much to ask? ]

Chris

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#126
In reply to #123

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 6:02 PM

How can anyone be transparent when every statement gets labeled as a lie.

I offer to you a word of advice. As a rule of thumb in any argument if you have to resort to the era of Nazi Germany to support your argument, you have likely lost the argument. The world politics at the time and festering of pure evil were so extreme prior and during WWII that one must be really careful using anything from this era as a sound reason to support anything.

The simple fact is that this entire discussion started with a wild unproven assumption. Several individuals understandably did not recognize that an assumption was made and continued the thought presented. This acceptance of a hidden assumption is a natural human trait exploited by magicians and illusionists all the time. I do not put any blame on spacecannon for not recognizing the assumption either.

I do blame the CBS news service for presenting the images without doing their due diligence to research what could explain the contrail their photographer photographed. They are paid to present validated information, not speculation.

What I've found distasteful is how many people have refused to acknowledge that an initial assumption was made.

I find it amusing that your "flight path" link highlights a slight deviation of the missile trajectory versus flight 808's flight plan. With two airborne objects (the helicopter was airborne and in transit) subject to different changing winds this seems to me to be more of a proof for flight 808 being the contrail and not a missile. Unless the missile was hiding in flight 808's contrail.

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#127
In reply to #126

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 6:36 PM
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#128
In reply to #127

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 6:46 PM

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#130
In reply to #128

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 8:01 PM
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#132
In reply to #130

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 8:20 PM

WOW where was that rally? The depth of that clueless sign is staggering.

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#131
In reply to #127

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 8:15 PM

Thanks

I did remember that it had a name but could not remember the name.

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#129
In reply to #126

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 7:24 PM

Hi Redfred,

Actually, I chose the era of Churchill and the Nazis because.. well because it is still highly relevant, but more because I was avoiding the cliché of Noah and the Ark.

Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. (or is that cliché too?)

Those who are given freedom without paying a personal price for it, give it up whimsically, sometimes without even knowing they are doing it. It requires regular reminders of the cost of freedom to avoid the return of oppression.

as to my link... it was just a sample again, of what I'm waiting for; evidence. In the absence of evidence, absurdities prevail, which is why I keep hammering at it. It is the responsibility of those agencies of government to conduct their due diligence regards to security, and publish as much of those findings as will not aid any enemy in the conduct of aggression against [us.] This must be done with as much incontrovertible evidence as is necessary to meet all outstanding questions.

Chris

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#133
In reply to #129

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 8:50 PM

Not exactly George Santayana's quote but a common paraphrase. An interesting misunderstanding that your paraphrase perpetuates is that Mr. Santayana does not state that if one knows their past that one can avoid repeating it.

So will you clarify your comment about the link with the missile path and the flight plan for flight 808. Did you fabricate the map that the proposed missile path almost identically agreed with flight 808? If you did not then you found on your own evidence that implies to me that the aircraft flight was the source of the contrail and not a missile. Maybe your complaint about evidence not being presented stems from the fact that you didn't find it on You Tube or with a government impressed wax seal in your mailbox.

Oh, wait a minute I get it. Since all governments lie, then only if they admit a lie can they be telling the truth. But by admitting a lie, they have to be telling the truth. But they cannot tell the truth.....

Error, Error. Nomad must sterilize.

We needed a little levity here.

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#134
In reply to #133

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 10:02 PM

Thank you for correcting my understing of the source of my quote. I thought it was Thomas Jefferson.

"All governments lie"... in war, of necessity. "All warfare is based on deception" Sun Tzu. I'm not saying they can't tell the truth to the public, so long as that truth doesn't give away the keys to the castle.. as I said earlier.

levity. yes.

Chris

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#135
In reply to #134

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 11:00 PM

Yep, I have proof. Met the leader of the Cone Heads Party. Caught him unplugged from his tinfoil hat. He reckons he's too busy to find out what happened but "not to worry" he said "the prices for native cone will go up"

Who can you believe, aih?

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#136
In reply to #135

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 11:19 PM
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#122
In reply to #120

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 2:25 PM

You have it backwards extraordinarily claims require extraordinarily proof

Claiming that the "incident" was caused by a missile would be the claim requiring proof

For a couple of years planes would come up along the sierra's hang a left & head to SanFrancisco right at sunrise, I've seen plenty of similar contrails at sunrise. the contrails from multi engined, change so much as the light & view angle change

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#124
In reply to #122

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 4:02 PM

I request (not require) proof of what it was. I am not even trying to classify it as ordinary or extraordinary. (although I agree with this thoughtful idea)

It is what it is... but what is was it.. based on the evidence?

Chris

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#125
In reply to #124

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/13/2010 5:34 PM

My position?

Sitting in the front

My height? 5'7"

Whats that bloody bird doing there?

Its a male thing.

Its a male thing. Penetrating the unknown and wanting true answers to our questions.

No borders need apply, Ky.

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#137
In reply to #120

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 4:05 AM

Let me also say that Spacecannon is a friend of mine, and I don't think he is crazy. I know him to be industrious, intelligent, and helpful.

Many paranoid schizophrenics are very industrious, intelligent, and helpful. However, I think Spacecannon is probably not crazy too -- although I am not basing that opinion on anything in this thread.

I don't personally care what it was. "Show me the evidence!"

This seems contradictory. If you don't care, why do you want to see evidence?

As for evidence that it was a missile: there is none. The military launched no missiles in the area. They are on record as having so stated, which we have to take at face value with no evidence to the contrary. The trajectory growth is far too slow for any missile. The traffic reporter said he watched the contrail for 10 minutes -- far longer than possible for even liquid-fueled rockets. The FAA received no pilot reports of anything out of the ordinary. The FAA had no record of local high speed traffic. (Local control does not monitor en-route traffic). No launch notices were given to the FAA. Had there been a launch, it would have shown up on local control radar, but it did not. No ground sighting of the rubble left from a missile crash. No reports from sea. There is no evidence that the contrail "lit up the sky:" the clouds in the area are brighter than the contrail.

So: The evidence for it being a missile:

1. None

But I assume you are looking for evidence to support what it actually might be. We cannot prove a negative, after all.

The evidence for it being airplane:

1. Airplanes leave contrails.

2. A contrail track of an overflying airplane at 35000 feet looks just like this. The December 31 contrail from flight 808 looks as close to identical as you can reasonably expect, given the numerous variables possible.

3. Many other contrails look similar. I think we can rule out the possibility that this is a simple cloud -- it looks too much like a contrail.

4. Both the USAir and UPS flights were overflying the area at the time. Both could be very good fits in terms of their locations at the time. One of the contrail experts makes a very good case that the UPS flight is a better fit, and provides tracks of both flights.

5. The beach cam contrail photo from the next night shows the same shape as the mystery trail, so we know that flight 808 can look very much like the mystery photo.

So: It looks like an airplane contrail. We know there were two aircraft in the correct general position at the time to produce such a contrail, oriented as depicted in the video. That seems pretty simple.

The video shows a helicopter near the upper, almost stationary end of the contrail ("near", if it were misinterpreted to be a vertical launch trail) and moving apparently toward it. Why would this helicopter not report having seen a missile launch? Probably because the pilot recognized the airplane contrail as an airplane contrail.

Could there possibly be a need for more evidence to explain a routine occurrence? Given that there is no evidence of any threat to the country, no evidence for there having been a missile launch, and no visual evidence that supports the contrail being from a missile what more could you want. I really don't think it was a flying pig, if that's what you are looking for. Space craft from another galaxy? Don't think so.

Suppose the FAA, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, the Pentagon, and the executive are all in this together: why on earth, given this historic level of unprecedented cooperation, secrecy, and risk of being found out would they do something so ho hum and something seen only by a traffic reporter? Launch a missile that leaves no trace?? What would the point be. Why not something big enough to make some point, whatever that might be?

Ironically, CBS asks: "Who's to blame for hyped up trail in the sky." They are. It was a CBS affiliate that described the contrail as a missile without thinking about the consequences or alternatives. Even in this more recent broadcast, they mix in an actual missile launch while describing the contrail. They go on to say that this is the sort of thing that causes conspiracy theories. Duh. Their reporting is no less irresponsible than all the news reports that have supported perpetual motion machines, HHO devices, fraudulent inventor services, etc., etc.

The shot goes out of focus when zoomed in because the part that looks like the "top" of a vertical launch is actually closer, so the camera operator should have refocused. When seen in real life, there is little-to-no confusion between a contrail and a rocket launch, partly for this reason -- you can tell without having to think hard that a contrail is stretching into the distance. Was the traffic reporter a deliberate prankster?

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#138
In reply to #137

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 9:41 AM

GA , and thank you. Instead of rumors, suspicion's and innuendos, you worked with what was known, and a solid logic flow chart followed.

Two things I wish to add, and I am not sure who to attribute them too.

-"When one rules out the ridicules, all that is left, is the obvious"

-"Two people can keep a secret, as long as one of them is dead"

As it was noted before: The conspiracy theorist's will have a field day with this one. Let them go, as they are not interested in logic, facts or the truth. Besides when I get bored and need some fun and a good laugh, I look towards their blogs as comic relief.

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#139
In reply to #137

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 12:37 PM

Whoops... left out the link to CBS video blaming the hysteria on others:

"Who's to blame for hyped up trail in the sky."

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#141
In reply to #139

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 4:19 PM

I think you have ruined it with all that logic and resorting to facts. (grudgingly, GA)

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#142
In reply to #141

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 4:30 PM

It is a stellar work of logic... fantastic... I'll even give a ga for it.

but as I laid out before all that work he put in, words don't count as evidence. If they did, the bible...

chris

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#143
In reply to #142

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 5:03 PM

Just don't go there.

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#140
In reply to #137

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/14/2010 1:45 PM

yup, we gots quality here.

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#111
In reply to #109

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:30 PM

Grate stuff Bruce

A few of the pictures were a bit on the dark side so I put an enhancement here. Maybe others will appreciate it. Hope you don't mind.

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#112
In reply to #111

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:48 PM

A sign of peace maybe?

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#113
In reply to #111

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:49 PM

Yes, clearly it's a message

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#114
In reply to #113

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 10:53 PM

Yep, just not as cryptic as some.

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#115
In reply to #114

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/12/2010 11:25 PM

Yar - well was going to say

but that would be "religion"

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#144
In reply to #113

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/15/2010 9:41 AM

That's just the Hiragana representation. Those same sounds can also be represented by a different character set called Katakana used for words of foreign (non-Japanese) origin. On top of that, the Japanese use Kanji (essentially a Chinese character set) to represent words. So a word can be spelled out in Hiragana phonetically and then replaced with an equivalent Kanji character.

Katakana Chart

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#145
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Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/15/2010 2:47 PM

True - but they don't look much like the cloud shapes

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#146
In reply to #145

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/15/2010 3:26 PM

That's true. So maybe the cloud shapes are originated in Japan (hence the Hiragana-like form).

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#147
In reply to #146

Re: Missile Launch Off California Coast

11/15/2010 3:44 PM

Are you telling us we even import cloud shapes :D

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