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Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 11:47 AM

"The science is now all-but-settled on global warming, convincing new evidence demonstrates, but Al Gore, the IPCC and other global warming doomsayers won't be celebrating. The new findings point to cosmic rays and the sun - not human activities - as the dominant controller of climate on Earth."

from: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100102296/sun-causes-climate-change-shock/

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#269
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/06/2011 8:29 PM

What a pity they haven't graphed 'methane' or 'atmospheric water vapor' in that. The latter quite seriously effects re-radiation in the Arctic circles. But what it does demonstrate is Man Compatibility is very recent and potentially quite tenuous, given the steepness of the blue 'tipping point' curve.

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#285
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 9:01 AM

Thanks AH... (I'm not sure I'd call 200,000 years of data a short term graph ) and the earth we live on today is roughly the same as the one 200,000 years ago.

This graph isn't from a peer reviewed paper (it's from a web site stocked full of a hodge-podge of unreferenced anti global warming factoids) and there is no interpretation of the raw data by a climate scientist.

I'm not a climate scientist either, so I'm not going to make any bold claims, but a few basics are pretty easy to grasp. Firstly nobody claims that CO2 is the only driver of global temperatures. 50 million years ago and longer (the kind of scale legible on the colour graph) there were no Himalayas, the continents were is different places so the ocean currents were completely different, the atmosphere had a different composition and, most importantly, the sun's output was significantly lower in the distant past.

Surely all this is why science is so important - because in any field anyone can stick the raw data on the web and say "there you go - proof!". Scientists spend decades sceptically examining the data. Just like engineers - (lots of people reckon they can size a beam to hold up a roof and a lot of the time they will get away with it. But some of us spend years and decades training to make sure we know exactly which beam is the best and why.)

So as engineers we should be giving the climate scientists their due. The subject is complex and difficult - some uninterpreted raw data on the web doesn't explain very much. This site http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-higher-in-past-intermediate.htm references peer-reviewed science (for anyone who doesn't want to wade through journal articles - but the links are there if you do) and has a lot to say on CO2 levels if you're interested.

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#289
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 9:15 AM

Thanks, Robert.

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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/04/2011 8:09 PM

No, you do not have to stop believing in ALL peer-reviewed science, just the science where the political landscape is such, that even the scientists are encouraging each other to make their 'outcomes' match the desired result rather than presenting 'truth'.

I emailed Dr. Jones who's email account was hacked, and the very person from, which the majority of my lack of credulity and respect for climatologists emanates, and asked him straight out what was in for him to lie about the weather, and to encourage others to suppress the truth also? He never responded. I can't help but wonder what his (and his cohorts) motives could have been. Was it just egotism run amok, or are they such 'died in the wool' socialists that they feel they must make the evidence tilt in the favor of those who desire to tax the asses off the general populous; or, are they just being paid to do so by those people? Whatever the reason, I ask again - what evidence is there to the contrary, especially on this topic, that other scientists who 'are believers' are not such ideologues, that they are not above doing the exact same thing?

This is not a rhetorical question.

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#241
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/05/2011 12:41 AM

"He never responded."

And what else would you expect when casting such a gross insult at someone?

I think scientists do have a big image problem. My wife calls it a communication problem. But the scientific problems of our time are becoming exponentially more complex and difficult for the individual to wrap his/her mind around. Conveying the nature of such problems to the rest of the population is getting to be as big a challenge as solving the original problem.

BTW, the idea of thousands of climate scientists collaborating in a lie is a bit of a stretch. This conspiracy theory explanation for every idea or event we don't like is getting old.

Ed Weldon

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#245
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/05/2011 7:52 AM

If you want truth, join a church. Science is not about truth, it is about evidence. The evidence is very compelling. The hypotheses drawn may or may not be correct.

Peer review is a process where experts make claims and other experts check them for errors and spurious claims. Spurious claims very rarely get through. When they do they usually get corrected. No claims to truth are made. When lies or fudged data are found to have been deliberately used to support a peer reviewed paper, the scientist involved never regains his or her reputation.

That's science. Works well.

Your alternative version is that if hypotheses you personallly don't like get published, then that's evidence of a conspiracy. You would like all such hypotheses replaced with ones that you like better.

That's wacko. Doesn't work.

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#246
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/05/2011 11:52 AM

Robertoz -- You articulate your position in a excellent manner. Would that I could do as well. Your last two replies are keepers for me. (Obviously I agree with them); thanks. Ed Weldon

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#279
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 7:47 AM

Thanks Ed - very kind of you (your posts have been good inspiration!). I'm concerned that on a scientific forum the discussion becomes highly unscientific on this topic. There are plenty of scientific hypotheses I don't like (for instance alcohol is becoming recognised as a carcinogen!! I don't like that!) but when I don't like what the evidence suggests I don't accuse the scientists involved of fraud.

It's a wonderful thing to be sceptical of all science (scientists are the most sceptical people of all), but it's a dangerous trait when politicians, journalists and even engineers start to question not the science, but the honesty of the scientists.

Keep up the good fight!

Regards,

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#281
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 8:33 AM

In general:

1. Politicians don't question the scientists' honesty. They simply cherry pick whatever data supports the argument of the day and discredit the rest.

2. Journalists don't question the scientists' honesty unless it makes for a good story or supports their own political agendas.

3. Engineers question everything. At least good ones do.

As a final parting shot, the worker bee scientists generally have a very high set of ethics and try to be faithful to the scientific method. Where things tend to fall apart is in the management and executive sides of the fence, but there are examples of groupthink, too.

The scientists are predominantly focused on the science. Managers tend to do what is necessary to deliver the project results on time and on budget. Executives worry about delivering the product that the customer is paying for.

The latter is where things get sticky. Directors know that they need to keep the funding coming to pay salaries, keep valuable resources in house, and fund other pet projects. To believe that money does not have the potential to bias the end result is a bit naive and just cause to be skeptical in some instances.

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#290
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 9:25 AM

Most climate scientists are academics - most of their funding comes from governments and the last thing governments want is to have to do something about climate change. It doesn't stack up to suggest that the scientists get more funding so long as they produce good anti-fossil fuel results. Most governments would fall over themselves to get hold of good data showing they can keep burning all the coal they like.

If climate scientists were in it for the money they could no doubt work out a way to sell carbon-friendly science to the fossil fuel industry. They don't, because there is no way they would get published, because the data cannot be made to fit that hypothesis.

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#291
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 9:53 AM

You wrote, "last thing governments want is to have to do something about climate change."

How would you substantiate that claim?

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#326
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/08/2011 7:59 PM

Governments in democratic nations stay in power by making popular decisions. There is nothing popular about telling people they will have to change their lifestyle or pay more to keep it. In Australia we make billions from exporting coal... the last thing our government wants to do is reduce coal use - but still we are bringing in a carbon tax because that's the overwhelming advice of several multi-million dollar enquiries and reports to government.

In the US the last thing any government wants to do is tell Americans they will have to pay more for energy, and change their lifestyles. The last thing politicians want to tell their political donors in the energy industry is that they will be instigating a carbon tax of some kind.

The easiest thing for any government to do is to burn cheap coal to produce the energy required for economic growth. That's what Western nations have done for 300 years to their very great economic benefit. (By no coincidence, in that time we have seen the fastest ever increase in CO2 in the atmosphere because what we have been burning is sequestered carbon.)

No government wants to be the government forced (by climate science, failing fossil fuel reserves and voters) to stick a spanner in the works.

The substantiation of the claim is that governments want to stay in power. In democracies they do this by making people happy, securing their jobs and giving them tax breaks. You only have to read this thread to realise how many people are made unhappy by the advice climate scientists give to governments, and think they will lose their job and pay higher taxes.

A large number of people, even an educated, scientific community like on CR4, seem to take the view that climate scientists are somehow not like other scientists, but are instead communist idealogues out to destroy Western civilisation. It's pretty sad really - we all accept and depend upon scientific results every day in our careers, but when results we don't like come along, we start claiming the scientists or those that publish their results are crooks.

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#327
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/08/2011 8:03 PM

Scientists are just as prone to ideology and fraud as any other individual is.... they aren't exempt from their beliefs however incorrect they may be in many cases.

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#329
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/08/2011 8:33 PM

True. That might be a problem if there were just 2 or 3 scientists working on climate research. But there are thousands. Do you really believe a credible (among their peers) majority of that group are fraudulent? ........ Ed Weldon

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#330
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/08/2011 9:01 PM

Western science is built on the foundation that everything must be supported by data. The data is not secret - you must publish the data as well. There is simply no system ever devised that is better protected against fraudulent claims than the scientific method.

Individual scientists may well be as prone to fraud as anyone else (and actually I don't believe this is the case - can you back this up with any evidence at all? - financial fraud is very commonplace, scientific fraud is exceedingly rare).

But the scientific method is not prone to fraud. If you really believe that the scientific community en-masse are con artists and liars, you may as well pack up and go home.

What you are really saying is that when science consistently and pretty much unanimously (see my post #328) produces results you don't agree with, it must be because the scientists are lying.

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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 6:20 PM

"the 26 gigatonnes of CO2 we send into the atmosphere each year (that's about 3.4% of the total CO2 emitted by all of nature every year".

There is no way to put a proper figure of the amount of CO2 being emitted in the world. You can't take a small amount of data and extrapolate that into data for some computer model, off of which people make definitive statements about mankinds affect on our universe and consequently our local (earth) environment.

This is not a serious problem and there is no correlation between the minute actions of our civilization (especially here in the States) and global warming!

With what is being proposed by way of legislation (cap and tax, carbon credits, etc.) and the small, possibly positive, impact it might have it is not worth the cost to our economy and anyone else's in the world. That legislation will go even further in damaging our already fragile economy, without any real results to show for it. There is no positive Return On Investment. It is simply a debilitating cost to us.

Mankinds footprint in our vast universe is miniscule and we have very little impact on the "big picture". As stated in past Posts our earth is a tiny part of the universe and it was created to withstand man's presence on it. If one looks at the universe as some chance occurence through random action then I can see how one would view this universe and our place in it as a fragile balance. The premise we start from is important to the outcome of the interpretation of the scientific data.

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#220
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/04/2011 10:23 AM

energy has always been a political football, with special interests firmly in control

we haven't seen any threads about the Keystone XL pipeline?

I wonder what the thinking is?

move the crude to the refinery, instead of refining closer to the source

too bad Steve S isn't around any more, he could probably offer some insight

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#223
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/04/2011 10:59 AM

I don't know why, but refineries take a very long time to build. I think it is in excess of 10 years. Plus you have every environmental agency in the world suing you (just like the nuclear plants).

If the capacity of our current refineries are not 100% or is relatively easy to expand, then maybe it makes sense (economically and temporally) to bring the crude to these existing cites.

That's my guess.

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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 11:27 PM

Well we better build a giant fold up sunshade out in space then...

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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 12:51 AM

I've said it here before, and I am saying it again, OF COURSE NO pollution is good; but, when applied to the whole scheme of things where the climate is concerned the current amount of pollution being caused by man is wholly inconsequential!!!!!!!!! Period. Exclamation Point! AND, it is definitely NOT worth destroying the American economy over! Which is the primary intention of the Al Gores of this world. It is definitely not worth taxing me one more cent for the fact that I exhale CO2. I know that the tree huggers have an idiotic belief that CO2 is bad for the "environment". The truth is that the trees themselves (and every other green plant) thrive on CO2, and when they thrive, they spread out and cover more of the earth's surface with green leaves, which ABSORB and utilize that energy to produce more O2, AND in the process give off more water vapor, which becomes clouds that reflect more sunlight out into space, and help COOL the earth. BUT, the primary regulator of Sunlight, which is what causes any warming that the Earth experiences, is the Earth's magnetic field. That is weakening because we are within 100 years of having a pole reversal.

I really don't think you know the right people to get anybody into the Tea party, and I seriously doubt that you could help anybody on that front. Besides, I already belong to the Tea Party anyway, and I wholeheartedly agree with Sara. At least if we became energy dependent we would NOT be buying the oil from the terrorists that we still need and will be using anyway, and NOT subsiding future attacks on ourselves. That alone is worth a few more wells here in America. But. preferably on dry land.

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#98
In reply to #41

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 2:23 AM

"wholly inconsequential!!!!!!!!! Period. Exclamation Point!" ......... SWB123

In a world of science that ought to be highly data driven that is an interesting quasi-numerical data point. Can you share a credible scientific reference?

How about some real numbers on the role of carbon fixation by plants and reflection of energy by clouds rather than more "just so stories". So we are within 100 years of a pole reversal? What's your source for that one? And just what is the probability of that number being correct?

I think the Director at CERN was right in limiting how much his people can throw out opinions and predictions based on their research. There is still lots peer review and further research on cosmic ray effects to go through. Their reputation is too important to waste it on statements that can mar their credibility. If one wants to view climate scientists as wanting to do their work via rigorous scientific method as a conspiracy of some sort then one is free to think that way. But I won't buy into there being anything but honorable about such an approach.

About US energy independence I think we generally agree: I think North American energy independence is a more practical immediate goal. USA, Canada and Mexico (the latter's internal problems notwithstanding) have too much in common interests. To that end I personally support further use of North American petroleum and gas resources. Our short term economic problems loom far more critical than the long term climate change issues. In my personal opinion there ought to be a small revenue neutral carbon tax starting with energy coal (as opposed to metallurgical coal)which goes directly to subsidizing the price of preferred energy sources heavily biased toward natural gas, which has the best promise of positive results in the short run. I would also advocate a small increase in gasoline tax to incentivize the engineering development of more efficient internal combustion engines such as small diesel cycle types. In other words big steps to reduce our reliance on foreign oil, especially MidEastern and baby steps toward reducing CO2 emissions.

Ed Weldon

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#144
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/02/2011 2:03 AM

I got the info on the magnetic field of the earth weakening from an article in National Geographic from about 15 or 20 years ago (or, there abouts - long before 'all things climate' became as politicized as it is today). They stated that the magnetic field as measured by satellites (placed in orbit for just that purpose) is steadily weakening, and they 'speculated', that at the current rate we could very well experience a pole reversal within a 100 years (give or take). The amount of solar wind, which actually strikes the earth, is directly proportional to the strength of the magnetic field. Ergo, weaker magnetic field means that more solar radiation reaches the earth's surface.

On the 'green leaves' - No, I don't have the exact numbers for what you ask, but it is all stuff I have read over the years, all of which is obviously not from a left leaning source. I know that makes it suspect in your world.

As for exact numbers on anything that Al Gore believes… Yeah! I'd like to find any scientist who is NOT funded by the green party communists, and who is NOT so politically motivated as to skew the numbers to make their "scientific" outcomes the preeminent ones. Yeah! In the field of climate in particular I do believe that there is a vast scientific fraud being perpetrated, and the hacked emails are just the tip of the iceberg! What evidence is there to the contrary? You show me the unbiased numbers, and then we will both know!

The stuff I offered about clouds is probably a hold over from my third grade science book. There too, information gleaned long before the present state of political idiocy.

Oh! Totally off topic, but vastly more interesting, something else I learned from that National Geographic article on "Gravity", that with new high tech testing devices, they have determined that the old experiment of dropping feathers, and a lead ball in a vacuum does NOT have the outcome that we were always taught. The feathers actually fall ever so slightly faster! They had not figured that one out yet. I personally speculate that the 'mass' of the lead somehow interacts with the fundamental matrix of space, and is slowed down by it. Can't prove it, but it works for me until the official answer is ferreted out.

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#154
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/02/2011 9:14 AM

If you had a big lead ball riding your butt you speed up, too! :)

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#121
In reply to #41

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:34 PM

Hi,

Just came back to see who's still beating this dead horse. I missed your rant at me earlier. Just to let you know, my wife is friends with Sara's next door Arizona neighbor. That's right, Sara has a house here too, not just the daughter. Sara's house is in a much more exclusive neighborhood, though. I expect she may launch her next doomed political campaign from here.

Anyway, since you are already a Tea Party member, and you ♥ Sara, I thought you might be interested in this organization. You might fit right in there too. The Flat Earth Society

WOW. It's really gotten gritty since I left. Bye.

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#122
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:46 PM

Hey, Lyn, blood sugar level okay? ;-)

Sorry, just couldn't resist a poke in the ribs - all in good fun, of course. :)

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#124
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 2:16 PM

Sorry,

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I know.

You will admit that we have digressed from the original subject and can't seem to let this thing die, as it should.

Maybe I just don't have the temperament for these deep philosophical discussions on subjects over which none of us have ANY control.

Oh My God! I could just never pledge allegiance to a country that voted Sara into national office. Talk about the death of all science, there you'd have it for sure.

I am doing lunch now, so ta ta. see you later. Have to get that blood sugar back under control.

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#123
In reply to #121

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:52 PM

Isn't Obama the most prominent member of the Flat earth Society?

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#138
In reply to #121

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 9:55 PM

Who are you talking about? Do you mean Sarah Palin? It's Sarah, not Sara.

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#139
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 10:00 PM

Sorry,

Sarah then. A rose by any other name, I'm sure.

Drill, baby, drill.

That is really all!

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#146
In reply to #41

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/02/2011 2:21 AM

Someone pointed out to me that the correct spelling of your hero's name is Sarah. I don't care either way, but you might want to find out before extolling her virtues, publicly.

Oh, never mind. I "think" you got it right, this time in the previous reply.

That's enough for me. I have contributed to the vitriol too much. Goodbye.

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#147
In reply to #146

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/02/2011 2:35 AM

Sarah is not my savior on any front. I will probably be voting for Ron Paul if he stays in this time. Why does leaving the 'h' off of her name substantiate anything about me in your mind? If I tried hard enough, I might come up with a typo or two in all the things you have posted. Would pointing them out to you make you as mad as I can only assume that you are trying to make me? (You aren't by the way, it just makes me marvel at the total lack of emotional control you have, when it comes to a simple debate) I have noticed this about most liberals, and it is not pretty.

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#302
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/07/2011 10:59 PM

I am really surprised so many people on this site are bound by the left/right paradigm. To me the choice between a Democrat and a Republican (GOP) are the same as Coke and Pepsi. Both are ultimately just sugar water with a lot of unnecessary crap and make you feel sick if you take too much.

Modern politics are ultimately divided between statism and libertarianism. I am libertarian. For me, despite everything, I still have faith in my fellow man and believe that We The People will, given the choice, make the best decisions.

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#4

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 12:53 PM

It was just a few weeks ago that 'lawyer-turned-climate-alarmist' Al Gore was calling BS on anyone who dared to suggest that the Sun had anything to do with climate change and comparing non-AGW scientists to racists.

More and more it looks like 'global warming' is just the phrenology of the modern era.

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#115
In reply to #4

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 12:54 PM

Who are we to argue with the man who "invented the internet", who made a fortune pitching Global Warming, who was a Professional Politician elected and re-elected by the American voter, who almost was an American President, who was the son of another Professional Politician, who owns a half dozen houses throughout the country which need heating and cooling even when he's not there, who jets around the country on private jets (How much CO2 does one of those Leer jets spew out anyway?) How do we question the intentions of a man who can laugh at the American Taxpayer all the way to the bank, probably while collecting a pension from the same taxpayer and receiving free medical benefits besides most likely.

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#141
In reply to #115

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 10:40 PM

Kind of makes us a bit jealous, eh? Nahhh ..

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#5

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 12:54 PM

Perhaps Al Gore in one of his perpetual rants will be demanding the sun be extinquished.

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#6

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 1:20 PM

Terrestrial or extraterrestrial the cause, I'm convinced that we're facing global cooling, since on every year I get on my back, I feel the cold more intensely. And I'm not as old as the pyramids yet. S.M.

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#7

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 1:58 PM

I don't know, or even care, whether Al Gore is right or wrong, but that article is based on a paper which basically made this argument:

1. The sun causes cosmic rays.

2. Cosmic rays cause increased aerosol nucleation.

3. Therefore, the sun causes global warming.

1 and 2 are true enough, and 3 is possibly true, but there's a ton of steps missing somewhere between 2 and 3. It's bad science.

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#11
In reply to #7

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 3:09 PM
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#14
In reply to #11

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 3:34 PM

this is based on the dutch astronomer Svensmark's earlier work. essentially the current models do not take into account cloud formation and it's effect on the albedo of the earth. CERN proved that Svensmark's theory on cloud nucleation was correct (after everyone initially called him a nut, i'm glad he is being vindicated now.). and CERN went further and did a sensitivity study to show that the effects of that albedo change completely swamps all other inputs. It is not bad science.

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#17
In reply to #7

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 4:10 PM

Ok, I located the Nature article that goes into the experiment itself. (From the courtesy copy information at the top of my other browser, I think that the link will only work while at my job.) The title of the CLOUD article already shows the sloppiness of the thread's original report,

Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation.

Cosmic rays do not come from the sun, they originate outside of our solar system. None the less this does mean that the process that promotes aerosol nucleation is a natural random source outside of our influence. This paper on the increased nucleation rate from space appears to solve a mystery on why the chemical reaction that produces one form of nucleation (cloud chamber like tracks) happens more often than what the chemical concentrations would nominally predict.

IMHO this paper simply adds one more random variable into the collection of things that change our climate. This paper does not refute the idea that global warming is being dominated by human activity. Henrik Svensmark refutes that global warming is dominated by human activity. HS claims that this type of cosmic ray induced shading of the Earth has skewed solar energy absorption rates over time. This paper just demonstrates that HS proposed mechanism does exist. (HS is not an author of this paper. This appears to be a valid confirmation of the mechanism.) It does not show any historical cosmic ray record to earlier average temperatures. It does not tie in these upper atmosphere nucleations into any weather patterns or other sustained solar shielding conditions. It doesn't even show the average lifetime or volume of each of these nucleation clouds. It just shows the chemistry and physics of how cosmic rays stop in our upper atmosphere.

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#19
In reply to #17

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 4:15 PM

redfred, not exactly. yes cosmic rays do indeed come from outer space (they also come from the Sun as well, but that is really irrelevant to the issue.) but the magnetosphere of the sun has a huge effect on whether they arrive in the upper atmosphere or not or are trapped in the sun's magnetosphere (the sun's equivalent of the earth's Van Allen belts.)

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#33
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 9:19 PM

Yes, the sun also produces cosmic rays, particularly from solar flares. However, the article specifically states galactic cosmic rays. I remember that the article stated that the pion (pi meson particles are the first by product particles after a proton collides with an atom) particles used in the reaction were at about 4Gev themselves. I don't think that solar cosmic ray has enough energy to produce a pion of this energy. But if you really want I can verify that tomorrow. I believe that this is why the article stipulates galactic cosmic rays.

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#34
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 10:39 PM

If memory serves, the Sun's role was that the Sun's magnetic field would partially shield the Earth from cosmic rays. As the Sun's magnetic field fluctuated or changed cyclicly through time, so too the amount of cosmic radiation received by the Earth.

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#44
In reply to #33

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 5:00 AM

4 GeV particles from the sun are occurring rarely if big flares or magnetic storms are existing on the sun.

Usually all emitted particles - yes particles, no rays of this high energy! - are up to some MeV.

But chemistry that is induced by particles is starting at eV.

Boiling energy of metals is a few eV only, evaporation energy a little above 10 eV.

So one particle from the solar wind may do a lot of chemistry.

Cosmic rays are only starting at GeV , often in the range of 1012 to 1020 eV and rarely found at 1024 eV

No agreed mechanism is known that may produce particles of this extreme energy.

Magnetic fields of earth and sun: not at all strong enough to redirect high energy charged particles,

but below MeV this is an important mechanism.

Some months ago there was the first solar storm of this period of solar activity and luckily the particles were directed away from earth by the magnetic fields of sun and earth. Else some satellites and electronic equipment at high northern and southern latitudes would have failed.

Where is a compilation of the many other mechanisms of global warming and cooling?

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#46
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 8:25 AM

I'm curious where the terms 'good science' and 'bad science' came from. I was under the impression science is just science..............

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#49
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 9:19 AM

No. Langmuir coined the phrase Pathological Science, which describes the situation where researchers fail to correctly employ the "scientific method" to their work and/or provide fraudulent or incomplete data to support their claims.

Langmuir summed the symptoms of Pathological Science as:

• The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative agent of barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause.

• The effect is of a magnitude that remains close to the limit of detectability; or, many measurements are necessary because of the very low statistical significance of the results.

• Claims of great accuracy.

•¬†Fantastic theories contrary to experience.

•¬†Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses thought up on the spur of the moment.

•¬†Ratio of supporters to critics rises up to somewhere near 50% and then falls gradually to oblivion.

The classic example of this was the N-Rays. I contend that Cold Fusion is another example of the term.

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#82
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 4:38 PM

Langmuir might have coined the phrase but the word science remains universal in aspect regardless of human foible. It cannot be deodorized or corrupted. Deception is not science....it is an art.

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#85
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 5:22 PM

The definition of the word or practice science is pretty well understood by everyone here.

The same can be said to a similar degree for the act of practicing medicine or engineering.

All can be done well and with skill or they can be done unskillfully or even with malice.

That means you can state those terms or practices as good medicine or good engineering or bad medicine or bad engineering depending how it is executed.

More to heart, an engineer that does not do their homework as part of the design process and delivers a badly executed project could be said to be guilty of bad engineering.

So can it be with science.

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#199
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/03/2011 8:19 AM

The definition of the word or practice science is pretty well understood by everyone here.

I disagree.......the word science is a verb..........it cannot be an object unless one uses it as a noun. Therefore it cannot be 'good' or 'bad'.....it just 'is'.

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#51
In reply to #46

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 9:28 AM

Absolutely, that is an inaccurate way to differentiate between science and pretend science. I'm being careful, I would have liked to use the term, "pseudo science", but that has been used for some of the inexact but real "sciences" such as psychology.

While on psychology, I found this on Dr. Boli's whinsical site;

"Psychotherapy (noun).-The science of treating the problems of selfish, self-centered, self-obsessed, and self-absorbed people by encouraging them to talk about themselves."

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#83
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Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 4:40 PM

Need one say more?

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#18
In reply to #7

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 4:12 PM

TVP, you have set up a straw man in order to knock it down, whether you meant to or not. You failed to note the sensitivity study between steps 2 and 3 that validated the theory.

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#27
In reply to #18

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 5:56 PM

I don't have access to the full paper tonight. I read it a few days (?) ago. Did I miss something? I can assure you that I only set up straw men when I'm trying to pull somebody's leg. That ain't the case here.

Do you have access to a free copy?

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#8

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 2:11 PM

Wow what a surprise. Who would've thought that scientists would come up with competing theories for an observed phenomena.

Putting sarcasm away, this is exactly how science should work. A scientific observation and theory of a phenomena gets proposed and other scientists try to tear apart the observation, theory or conclusion. This is the gauntlet of peer review. Unfortunately far too often a scientific paper on a politically unpopular topic will grab more media attention as soon as it gets published but before peer review can put it in proper perspective. Why do I start off bashing the political perspective of this article that refers to another article that discusses the CLOUD experiment analysis? Well while the latter article does include some CLOUD experiment data and conclusions, both articles predominantly promote the political implications of an apparent refutation of global warming being man made. Clearly both articles have an agenda.

(I'll post my conclusions on the CLOUD experimental data and conclusions later when I can find some more direct or less colored information.)

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#12

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 3:32 PM

Science? I thought it was all about saying something over and over until it has to be true. Where there is a way, there is a will!

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#15

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 3:38 PM

By the way, the phrase is "Drill, baby, drill"....

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#22

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 5:01 PM

Two points I'd like to add.

Recently saw article that indicated earth is moving to a position above galactic equator and thus is now subject to greater cosmic radiation. (Was in a rather radical publication and I place little credence in the supposition until I see further research.)

The second is that the pre-occupation with "global warming" and the apparent/implied condition that if we reverse our activtiies, then the predicted consequences (sea level rise, weather pattern changes etc.) will not happen. I think this approach is like the ostrich with it's head in the sand.

Mankinds single greatest strength has always been our ability to adapt and move forward inside changing circumstances, but I see no effort being made to stop building in areas that will be ocean affected inside 100 years, no effort to relocate communities where they will be adversely affected. It's a little like that legendary king trying to command the tide not to rise.

Yes we (mankind) should be responsible in the manner that we treat our plannet, but we should not be so naieve to believe that we are the only force at play. (Just look at the history of the Sahara region in Africa. Used to be significant trade routes overland, but changes to global weather pattern made them less attractive.)

At community and local levels, we should be pushing "adapt and move forward".

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#26
In reply to #22

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 5:40 PM

Your assessment is pretty good.

Regarding the point of "...mankind's greatest strength being ability to adapt.....and seeing no effort to....."

It may very well be one of our greatest strengths, but it isn't individuals that adapt....it's the species as a whole....in the process many individuals either freeze to death (not adapting to the cold or moving to a warmer climate), drown (too close to flood zone) or buried in volcanic lava and/or ash (too close to volcanoes) or ....I'm sure you get the picture.

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#205
In reply to #26

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/03/2011 12:41 PM

There must be some individual adaptation for a species to adapt, albeit small. Most it starts in the mind,whatever that is, and brain even before the pressures reach dangerous physical levels. Most species reproduce from individuals, they don't rain on Earth like frogs do.

Clear to see this in humans: ****

  1. The planet starts to warm up (whatever the causes)
  2. We notice and think about it (long before it is a REAL problem)
  3. We think what we could do about it to protect ourself (collectively)
  4. We create committees and political forums, which put new pressures on the individuals
  5. Most of us die of constipation waiting for some consensus
  6. Some of us survive because we got the sh*ts instead
  7. The ones that got the sh*ts instead of constipation will start a new race, which maybe generally more aggressive, but better at surviving external pressures and committee meetings, in their ability to let the sh*t go and get on with life.
  • The above model demonstrates that group adaptation starts with the individual thoughts and individual judgements made under new pressures. These thoughts prompt unusual physical changes which are bred as stronger tendencies back into the group, gradually producing substantial changes over time (I'll leave that to the imagination).
  • We don't understand the minds of other species, but the process could be very similar to ours, as demonstrated by cows and chicken (methane and manure levels)
  • It also proves that we may not have time to change the temperature because on lack of consensus, but we may have to change our attitude about committees and politics, if we want to survive climate warming, even though it may be a pain in the backside for a while!
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#24

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 5:15 PM

I don't know what to think about global warming anymore. I do know one thing. CO2 and methane are going to a growing part of our atmosphere for a long, long time.

Neither cap and trade, nor any other scam is going to change that fact.

It's a shame that Al Gore, (a lawyer), and some scientists were so willing to bend the science involved, or outright lie, to reach a certain conclusion. Al Gore, to get very, very rich........................the scientists, I don't know what the motivation, maybe guaranteed funding to find the "right answers", that fit the bill.

I read enough of those leaked emails between the global warming scientists to know that they were burying data that disagreed with anthropogenic warming. Shame on them. Gore is a lawyer. Bull$hitting people out of their money is what he was trained to do. He's just doing what lawyers do.........................on a grand scale.

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#25

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 5:22 PM

We have myopically become concentrated on "Global Warming" when our concern should be the wider picture of man's impact on the environment in total and the resulting impact on his health and survival as a species.

There are practical links between species on the planet. It isn't just a romantic fantasy or exaggeration that there is an interdependence.

Climate changes can be compared to past patterns through geological and natural imprints (rings on trees, for instance). Every day we are learning more. And what we learn enables us to make corrections to our past interpretations of the data we had before the new data arrived.

We also have some health records to go by. Cancer and heart disease are at the top of the list of causes of death. Is that mostly due to the sun? I don't see how we ignore the contributing causality of our environment in disease processes.

They say there are "lies, damned lies and statistics." While there are many ways to gauge "progress" as a species, I found one such presentation, albeit, to me, a narrow definition, of progress, that readers might find interesting and enjoyable. But life on the planet should not, and can not, be reduced to a set of animated charts, as fun or captivating as it may be. It might be interesting to see a similar presentation for stress and happiness as well as disease.

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#28
In reply to #25

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 7:26 PM

The main reason cancer and heart disease are now at the top of the list is because we found cures or workable solutions to everything else that used to be above those things on the list.

Some day stupidity will be at the top of the list since will have cured everything else by that point. It wont mean being stupidity got worse it will just mean there is nothing else left to kill stupid people but their own unchecked stupidity!

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#29
In reply to #28

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 7:43 PM

I always knew that our politicians got the best health care in the world.

Your theory has already been proven in Washington DC. Stupidity certainly seems to be the predominate disease there already.

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#37
In reply to #29

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 11:25 PM

predominant. Just saying.

I totally agree with you though.

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#30
In reply to #28

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 7:45 PM

I thought stupidity was already at the top of the list, but we have resigned to the fact that it can't be fixed.

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#31
In reply to #30

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 8:04 PM

I didn't want to make that point too obvious. You never know who may get offended under a generalized reference to incurable stupidity.

On another forum I had a nut who assumed that any reference to stupid or stupidity was a direct reference to him and thus required immediate reporting to the admin for name calling.

(I kept him very busy though!)

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#60
In reply to #28

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 11:51 AM

tcmtech-

Your comment may be correct... I don't know. It appeals to common sense. But I've been looking off and on while and since I posted to see a normalized graph of death rates from non-infectious diseases for the last 100 years. That would cover most of the technological advances in medicine. If you find one I'd love to see it posted. I tried the CDC website... even called them since they have an 800#. Then I called the university library to enlist their help and despite some "librarian's" effort got no further than my own search had done. You can certainly find graphs and stats. for certain years but the longest period I could find similar to what I was looking for was from 1999 to 2009.

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#87
In reply to #25

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 8:35 PM

"Cancer and heart disease are at the top of the list of causes of death. Is that mostly due to the sun?"

Heart disease and cancer has little to do with the sun. Many native Brazilians are very close to the Equator and greater exposure to the sun and yet they experience less cancer than we do in the US by a great deal. Their diet of superfruits which are very high in antioxidants explains some of this. These diseases in our society are mostly a result of poor diet and lack of exercise. Eventhough we spend more money on food than anyone in the world.

The availability and access to high quality, highly nutritious food in our diet is becoming less all the time. We are increasingly have diets full of processed sugars, preservatives, etc. Plus, we have a society of people who are more and more content to just be lazy and getting fatter all the time. We are much too sedentary for our own good.

"Climate changes can be compared to past patterns through geological and natural imprints (rings on trees, for instance)." Along with tree rings, looking at core samples from the ice that is even older than that, there is evidence of cycles of warming and cooling long before the Industrial Age ever began. We as humans do have impact on our environment but it isn't on a global scale that will affect climate conditions to any great extent.

When we are looking at scientific evidence, or any information for that matter, we need to be careful who we are getting our information from. What is their agenda, etc.? Al Gore is just a dressed up clown who is out to fleece the worldwide (and specifically the West, because that is where the money is) and line his pockets. He is the guy who made a comment recently about the temperature at the earth's core as being "millions of degrees". What credibility does this guy have and why would anyone listen to him????

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#89
In reply to #87

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 10:06 PM

"...We as humans do have impact on our environment but it isn't on a global scale that will affect climate conditions to any great extent."

There is an overwhelming majority of climate scientists who will disagree with that statement. Perhaps you are not aware of that.

Please spare us the just so story (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-so_story) presented as fact rather than as your opinion or belief.

Yes, I admit this is a snarky reply. But it is time for those of us who believe in the legitimacy of the scientific method and its findings to stand up and counter myths and fairy tales promoted as legitimate science by well funded propaganda sources. I'm reading way to much of that from otherwise respectible CR-4 contributors. It is time to stop feeding the lies some of which have developed entirely too much of their own life.

Ed Weldon

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#91
In reply to #89

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 11:31 PM

OK. What are your sources for your support of anthropogenic global warming? I sincerely want to know, as I am beginning a quest for the truth.

Thanks!

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#94
In reply to #91

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:16 AM

Why are the ones who question indulgent consumptions asked to prove anthropogenic global warming instead of examining the merit of their criticisms? Ed has just simply cited that many (vastly a majority) of credentialed intellectuals (scientists) who have dedicated their personal intellectual faculties to the myriad of disciplines involving climate conditions have concluded that we are the dominant cause of global warming.

I'm not sober now, but if you truly need a clear trail that our fossil fuel consumption is the predominant source of CO2 present in our atmosphere, I'll do it again. If you wish to see a correlation between past CO2 levels and the average temperature levels, I'll do it again. If you want to see that recent increase of CO2 levels coincides with our fossil fuel industrialization, I'll do it again. All of these correlations I've already demonstrated here at CR4 to outside scientific links. If you want me to convince you beyond the shadow of any doubt that we promoted global warming .... this I cannot prove. If you want me to prove that we are the dominant factor in global warming .... this I cannot prove.

As I said and implied earlier, this maelstrom of conflicting opinions is part of the natural progress of scientific peer review. We should look at our disagreements as progress and not a burden. We also and IMHO more importantly should listen to all who bring credible data to any discussion. Editorial opinions with blatant or insufficiently veiled biases should be ignored as simple chest thumping opinions. The difficulty comes when people inadvertently or craftily hide their biasing opinions while bringing plausible data to any discussion. Hopefully the peer review process sorts "the wheat from the chaff."

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#96
In reply to #94

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:43 AM

I think that the majority of people - scientists included - cannot go very long without trying to draw conclusions from inconclusive data. It is human nature. It is for that very reason that I do not trust published data.

What would help is if I knew the publishing scientists personally. Because I have not reviewed enough data on the subject, and don't really know anyone actively researching (actual data, not merely document searching, etc.) this subject, I can't, in good conscience, make a determination one way or another.

From my background, I tend to not believe that AGW is significant but that doesn't necessarily make it so.

This brings me to my belief that, there is so much data out there from so many studies/experiments, both for and against, that one cannot really make a conclusive determination, unless you are one of those actively gathering enough data to do so.

If you could rule out agenda, the interpretation of the data would be a lot clearer.

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#221
In reply to #96

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/04/2011 10:53 AM

You're kidding right? I'm not having a go at you, I'm just genuinely bewildered. You don't trust published data unless you know the researcher personally?

I'd find that a really difficult line to hold, as I rely on about a gazillion scientific results every day that I trust because the scientific establishment has determined that the weight of evidence has shown these results to be the most likely hypothesis. None of them are known to be true or false, just they fit the available facts.

I don't know if the people researching these things have an agenda or not, but even if they do, any unverifiable claim usually doesn't get past peer review.

Thanks to the Western scientific method - (which makes no claims to truth, but is invested so heavily with scepticism that rubbish claims don't often get very far for very long) - I don't need to know the researchers personally.

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#95
In reply to #91

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:22 AM

".....What are your sources for your support of anthropogenic global warming? I sincerely want to know, as I am beginning a quest for the truth." .......Mikerho

These represent good summaries:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

referenced in:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy

http://monthlyreview.org/2008/07/01/the-scientific-case-for-modern-anthropogenic-global-warming

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-flipping-point

Ed Weldon

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#97
In reply to #95

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 1:46 AM

Thanks Ed! Too late now, but I will be on it tomorrow.

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#32

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 8:41 PM

lol @ "The science is now all-but-settled ... convincing new evidence demonstrates"

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#35

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 10:45 PM

So...since CO2 is now proclaimed a dangerous gas....and methane is such a potent greenhouse gas.....

Is Al Gore the Boreacle going to call for cabbage and cauliflower as well as beans to be outlawed....and impose a Carteresque alternate breathing days to cut down on human CO2 emissions via reduced respiration?

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#86
In reply to #35

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 5:46 PM

Nope, but that catalytic converter you will have to use is sure going to be uncomfortable!

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#36

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 11:22 PM

There is an article, something like: A new ice age every 25 years. It was a research of newspapers of the time. Showing what people believed at times. NO, never mind science.

The UN IPCC discovered now, to anybody's utter and devastating surprise, that Sun and Clouds are a main factor in what we call weather. DUH, buddies.

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#39

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/30/2011 11:50 PM

Great discussion! It is pretty clear that global temperatures fluctuated for eons without human intervention: refusing to engage in a debate on this factor is at least narrow-minded. We should look more specifically at where and how we release toxins, rather than focus on temperature fluctuations. Where humanly or otherwise induced temperature fluctuation may remain largely outside the control of governance, toxin pollutants use and disposal regulations are governance responsibilities. I think the whole global warming issue has become a political and economic device. We need to include human psychology in the equation. I believe it is natural in us, as it is in any evolving species, to try to maintain a comfort zone; a state which is ideal for our development. We do this in our heads too; by defining, labeling and describing our environs, including how other people think. The lack of "labels" and "facts" make us very uncomfortable, although this causes us to rethink our beliefs and differentiate, mentally and physically, in adaptation. Some people, consciously or intentionally, take a polarised course and believe all things as black and white, but the Universe is not monochrome, and it makes them very aggressive when someone points this out. The extremes of thinking and beliefs are pretty well monochrome, but they carry the most potential energy for change; they behave like a capacitor charge with usable energy. Someone clever may one day have a formula for human capacitance; that would make a lot of people feel better, not because it would change much, but because it would explain the madness as not our responsibility.

Hard to see the forest, when you have bumped your head on the first tree.

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#40

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 12:32 AM

What the Hell are you ranting about, man? Sun, Cosmic Rays and Clouds are decades old stuff, man. They are from the Heretics, man. Stay away from such dangerous stuff, man! That is not, and never will be Acceptable, man.

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#42

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 1:36 AM

I'm glad this has spun off a healthy debate. I offered no personal position on this topic intentionally; I only posted the article as I found it interesting.

Here's my opinion: We humans must learn respect for our Earth and take responsibility for our crap, just like our Mothers taught us.

The carbon credit push has nothing to do with cutting carbon and everything to do with making money off a fabricated commodity. The Global Warming agenda is not about science; it is about a psychological mind f*@k of the world populace to make us think we are disposable liabilities. It is another control mechanism.

We the People have the power to halt the degradation of our environment by being aware of what we are purchasing and consuming, what the waste stream is and how we contribute to it. For starters, stop buying "Made in China" and start buying local.

The container ships filled with crap for Walmart produce more carbon and atmospheric toxins than all the worlds cars, and it is all for stuff we don't need. And companies dumping money into "carbon sinks" will not change this.

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#43

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 2:44 AM

Interesting debate. So I read the Deligpole article. For readers outside the UK the Telegraph is a relatively right-wing newspaper traditionally beloved of retired Colonels. James Delingpole is one of their columnists who writes an amusing, if somewhat foaming at the mouth, opinion column in which he abuses anything left wing or environmental (incidentally, "left wing" here includes the Conservative Party). Although he does occasionally lose it completely and has to be taken inside for a lie down and a special pill. He's also obsessed with World War 2.

He is not a science reporter. He writes opinion pieces and anti-environmentalist books.

Made me go and look up the original article, which was also interesting. If heavy going.

Here's the abstract:

"Atmospheric aerosols exert an important influence on climate through their effects on stratiform cloud albedo and lifetime and the invigoration of convective storms. Model calculations suggest that almost half of the global cloud condensation nuclei in the atmospheric boundary layer may originate from the nucleation of aerosols from trace condensable vapours, although the sensitivity of the number of cloud condensation nuclei to changes of nucleation rate may be small. Despite extensive research, fundamental questions remain about the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles and the mechanisms responsible, including the roles of galactic cosmic rays and other chemical species such as ammonia. Here we present the first results from the CLOUD experiment at CERN. We find that atmospherically relevant ammonia mixing ratios of 100 parts per trillion by volume, or less, increase the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles more than 100-1,000-fold. Time-resolved molecular measurements reveal that nucleation proceeds by a base-stabilization mechanism involving the stepwise accretion of ammonia molecules. Ions increase the nucleation rate by an additional factor of between two and more than ten at ground-level galactic-cosmic-ray intensities, provided that the nucleation rate lies below the limiting ion-pair production rate. We find that ion-induced binary nucleation of H2SO4-H2O can occur in the mid-troposphere but is negligible in the boundary layer. However, even with the large enhancements in rate due to ammonia and ions, atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and sulphuric acid are insufficient to account for observed boundary-layer nucleation. (Kirkby et al, 2011)

and the concluding paragraph:

"The CLOUD measurements have also quantified the enhancement of ion-induced nucleation compared with neutral nucleation. Ground-level GCR ionization substantially increases the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid and sulphuric acid-ammonia particles, by between twofold and tenfold or more, provided that the nucleation rate lies below the limiting ion-pair production rate. Although we have not yet duplicated the concentrations or complexities of atmospheric organic vapours, we find that ion enhancement of nucleation occurs for all temperatures, humidities and cluster compositions observed so far. Ion-induced nucleation will manifest itself as a steady production of new particles that is difficult to isolate in atmospheric observations because of other sources of variability but is nevertheless taking place and could be quite large when averaged globally over the troposphere. However, the fraction of these freshly nucleated particles that grow to sufficient sizes to seed cloud droplets, as well as the role of organic vapours in the nucleation and growth processes, remain open questions experimentally. These are important findings for the potential link between galactic cosmic rays and clouds." (ibid)

Kirkby is right. It is an interesting study, and one of the many factors affecting climate. Does he blame cosmic rays for climate change? No. Does he say they could have an effect? Yes. It's an interesting addition to our cannon of knowledge of cloud formation, which in turn has an impact on climate science. And as I've even bored myself with that conclusion I can see how reporters would want to spice it up a little. Or in Delingpole's case add India's entire annual chilli production.

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#143
In reply to #43

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/02/2011 12:24 AM

A good answer, Evan. Indeed a breath of fresh air; though unlikely to disrupt the energy of the ongoing 2 minute hate. Amazing the prescience of your Mr. Orwell

You may well find that the OT ramblings within this topic are a good microcosm of current American discourse. ...........Ed Weldon

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#47

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 8:51 AM

UGH, I had a nice response written and the hyperlink messed up and caused me to reload the page (it put the submit and cancel buttons past the screen). I guess I will quit using hyperlink for now.

Anyway, on to the OP. This is just more misdirection from the tea partiests of the world. Climate scientists already new the sun warmed the earth (otherwise what would be the source of energy.). These scientists use the solar cycle as part of the evaluation to determine how much we are changing the global temperature. Now, these scientists all have their own models for the future and each one has determined their own "we will see this increase in temperature by this date" based on the data.

I just found a US program that I haven't heard of berfore. It is the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) (http://www.globalchange.gov/about/overview). The purpose of the program is to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."

I could point to studies all day long. The original article from this post never provided a link to the study. It is just like Fox fake news!

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#50
In reply to #47

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 9:21 AM

You wrote, "This is just more misdirection from the tea partiests of the world."

Can you cite your supporting evidence for that claim?

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#53
In reply to #50

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 10:36 AM

Exactly.....and why do the so-called "climate experts" who a few decades ago were convinced we were going into an ice age get to be assumed to be right and everyone else is somehow a crackpot?

Sounds more like lemmings than experts to me.

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#92
In reply to #53

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 12:38 AM

I ran across an interesting article in Scientific American a while back. The reason, (the article proposes,) that we are NOT in the middle of an Ice Age, is because Mankind has produced just enough CO2 to halt the run away glaciation.

Interesting read. Any thoughts?

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#101
In reply to #92

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 8:26 AM

Never saw that article. So I can't comment on its contents.

Personally I think its all bunk, and we are seeing are normal climatic variations. 20 years ago they claimed we were driving the planet into an ice age.....now they are claiming just the opposite.

I view it like weather forcasting....just two steps removed from consulting a Ouija board. Professional and university degrees doesn't bestow them with infalible knowledge of everything.

After all, we have a record of direct observations and mearurement for HOW long? The planet is HOW old...

That relates to roughly a microsecond of time out of a century, and they claim that microsecond represents how it always is? Sorry, but all of these so-called derivatives claiming what it was etc....while good enough in accuracy for say, playing horse shoes and hand grenades....isn't nearly good enough for brain surgery which they are in effect claiming it is.

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#54
In reply to #50

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 10:42 AM

I'm glad to see that you accept that this original article from the Telegraph is a "tea party" misdirection.

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#55
In reply to #54

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 11:05 AM

When did the Tea Party branch off into UK politics? Since thats a UK blog, written by a UK person refering to a lot of other UK residents. And what proof has there been the Tea Party does any misdirection as opposed to the Democrat party misdirection that is well known.

I automatically assume a degree of skepticism when things on the net are refered to from the net.

You will find a LOT of information and "proof" of alien abduction too......but volume doesn't create reality.

Put enough money behind something as in incentive ( As in Al Gore profiting from this) and you have plenty of reason for someone to stretch the truth....or falsify "facts".

The whole climate "issue" is all about who can make money off of it....and pushing someopnes political agenda. Polution we can control.....climate was around long before anything crawled out of the oceans to live on dry ground. And Climate will exist long after we are gone......and once thing will never change. And thats the fact that climate IS always changing...always has, always will.

And the Sun is hardly the rock solid steady, and constant stabile source of heat that certain sides always assumed. Yeah its not going to burn out tomorrow..or go supernova in our lifetime, but nothing we can ever do will change the reality the sun isn't, never was, and never will be an absolutely steady and constant source of radiation. There is and always will be flucuations....sunspots...etc. If it varied greatly enough.....none of us would be here having this discussion now, and if it were to happen tomorrow there is nothing we could do to change or stop it.

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#58
In reply to #55

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 11:45 AM

This thread has precisely demonstrated why global warming and politics in general can no longer be rationally debated. People cannot read a single sentence without adding their own baggage to the floor. The point of my sentence is that the Telegraph article is an opinionated misdirection of a sound scientific article. It is supposed to be an opinion article because it is from the opinion pages of the Telegraph. But people cannot even sort out the difference between facts and opinions on these types of hot button topics.

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#64
In reply to #58

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

08/31/2011 12:11 PM

Exactly. And since politicians are up to their ears in this (Al Gore to name just one).....nothing can be trusted as a result.

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#102
In reply to #50

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 8:54 AM

I was just trying to relate that the US has the same issues. Here we have a complete section of the Republican party that are divoted to misdirection of the scientific information provided. They are called the Tea Party. They even think energy efficiency is a farse when it has real world results. It isn't hard to find this information with the race for the next president. Treehugger provides articles about it all of the time. Treehugger even had the guy that designed the Republicans way of misdirection. I tried to find an article that I had read on an interview with the guy that taught the GOP how to deny climate change science by prviding misdirection to the public. I was not able to find it. Anyway, here are some other links for you to follow and read on the subject.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/01/09/207307/tea-party-pollutocrat-david-koch-climate-change-shrugs-off-his-carbon-pollution/

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/us/politics/21climate.html

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/republican/tea-party-climate-change-0507

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/10/why-republicans-become-worlds-only-major-political-party-denying-climate-change.php

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2011/08/gop-no-environmental-defender.php

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2011/08/jon-huntsman-republican-party-anti-science.php

What gets me the most about these deniers is this: "I read my Bible," Mr. Dennison said. "He made this earth for us to utilize." For those of us who have actually read the Bible, God commanded humans to exercise stewardship over the earth (Genesis 1:26-28; Psalm 8:6-8). Stewardship implies care taking of the earth, not abusing it. Not trying to start a religious debate as I am not part of any religion. Just pointing out the falisies in the above statement and belief. How is dumping a bunch of GHGs from the ground into the atmosphere being a good steward of the earth when we are pushing new planetary history high levels of CO2 as found from ice core and soil studies? Answer: it's not. Even the Pope agrees with me (http://www.treehugger.com/files/2011/06/republican-presidential-hopefuls-out-of-step-with-their-religion-climate-change.php).

Lets not forget that we have Fox fake news, too! The main point is we all have these radicals that deny everything and sell many books on how to deny science.

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#103
In reply to #102

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 9:10 AM

As opposed to Al gore who has set up creating his entire wealth on pushing this specific agenda.

No.....money is never a factor for him or his kind and never ever influence his decisions.

And I personally take offence to your comments about the Tea Party, they are not only incorrect, they are derogitory and inflamitory. Not to mention rude.

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#104
In reply to #103

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 9:31 AM

I hate Al Gore too! He is a fake. $3000 in electric bills for his house and flying around in his private jet, but hey, he buys carbon credits to offset it all. What a joke. He needs to go away.

I apologize for you or anybody else taking the comments as rude. They were not intended that way. They are based on everything that I have read on their movement, their anti-science propaganda, and their attempts to bully everyone into submission (this is based on their record in congress since 2010 elections).

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#106
In reply to #104

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 9:37 AM

You wrote, "this is based on their record in congress since 2010 elections"

Just for your information, the Tea Party is not a political party like the Democratic Party, Republican Party, Communist Party, etc.

There isn't a single representative in congress that belongs to the Tea Party because ether are no members to the Tea Party.

Therefore, the Tea Party has no record in congress, period.

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#111
In reply to #106

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 11:53 AM

Tea Party is a sect of the Republican party. The Tea Party is already broken down into other sects, one being the Tea Party Patriots as they call themselves (http://www.teapartypatriots.org/GroupNew/a2d266b7-b929-4ef1-b137-10d4d8cdacad/Founders_T.E.A._Party_Patriots). This group has private meetings separate from the rest of the Republican party.

I don't see the New York Times as biased (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/us/politics/21climate.html). In case others do, here is a statement from the Tea Party Review Magazine (http://www.teapartyreview.com/blog/ny-times-sees-irene-harbinger-change-climate-08282011). Here is some of their propaganda (http://www.teapartyreview.com/green-agenda-infiltrates-classroom) using the well-known inaccuracy in models to predict the future weather paterns as reason to question climate science. Here (http://www.teapartyreview.com/carbon-and-carbon-dioxide-clearing-confusion) they have so many false claims that I can't list them all. One being that all the excess CO2 we are emitting is beneficial to humans (I had a good laugh at that one).

Here is their statement on the oil company tax credits which got extended (http://www.teapartyreview.com/oil-%E2%80%9Csubsidy%E2%80%9D-and-%E2%80%9Ctax-breaks%E2%80%9D-nonsense). I don't see this as fiscally responsible.

I really didn't even have to go past the first 4 links that google had on searching "tea party climate change" to understand their agenda. I haven't even touched that they want to stip all funding from the EPA and the energy efficiency department of the DOE.

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/politics/blogs/tea-partys-fight-against-climate-change-is-a-tough-challenge-0

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/24/tea-party-climate-change-deniers

I could go on, but don't feel it is necessary. The Tea Party is about "free market" which doesn't work when protecting the environment and human rights are involved. We had free market in this country and had polluted air and water. Remember the rivers catching on fire? Prime example of what corporate greed does in a free market. Besides, free market would eliminate environmental jobs like mine (no environmental regulations=no environmental regulators=no environmental staff or consultants).

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#113
In reply to #111

Re: Sun Causes Climate Change Shock

09/01/2011 12:05 PM

Shame on you. Don't you know that the cruelest thing to do to any politician or pundit is to actually quote them from their own source.

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